MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Chris Bassitt Looks Like The Top Dog Tonight (September 28)

Thursday brings a brief, five-game featured slate with a first pitch at 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Chris Bassitt and Jesus Luzardo as tonight’s primary pitching recommendations, along with the Blue Jays at home against baseball nomad RHP Luke Weaver.

Still trying to find your MLB DFS edge? Luckily Stokastic has a new tool to help you get there — the MLB Sims Tool! With it you can simulate any MLB DFS contest you are playing on a given night and see what lineups are the likeliest to be profitable. And if you need a head start on strategy, Greg Ehrenberg broke down how to combine the MLB Sims Tool with Fantasy Cruncher to build competitive MLB DFS lineups on a nightly basis.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 28

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Chris Bassitt vs. New York Yankees — 3.8 implied runs

First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $44

The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Chris Bassitt with a slight edge over the other pitchers on tonight’s five-game slate. Toronto has a two-game cushion over Seattle, who is hoping to run down the Blue Jays or the Astros (1.5-game lead) for the final American League Wild Card slot. They are not going to ride Bassitt into the ground, but he should be out on the mound as long as he is effective, and he is going to get the best offensive combination behind him. The Blue Jays are -180 favorites to win tonight in front of the Toronto faithful.

Even with the 6-0 victory last night, the Yankees are barely averaging over four runs per game over the last 30 days, and their 26.6% strikeout rate is the third highest in the league. The projected lineup for New York has five hitters who strike out above league average against right-handed pitching, including Aaron Judge (29.1%) and Giancarlo Stanton (31.9%). We know that duo can take one out of the park on any swing, but if the bases are empty, it is not the end of the world — particularly since it is not uncommon to see either with a three-strikeout game.

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Jesus Luzardo at New York Mets — 3.6 implied runs

First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $41

The Mets are not bad on offense, and LHP Jesus Luzardo has shown flashes that he could consistently be inside the top 20 pitchers for the next several seasons. This is a crucial game for the Marlins as they look to squeak into the postseason. Currently, they are tied with the Cubs for the final National League Wild Card berth, with the Diamondbacks two games ahead and the Reds 1.5 games behind the fracas.

The main challenge for Luzardo will be to contain the power of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Outside of that duo and Mr. Contact Jeff McNeil, there are four hitters in the projected lineup who sport a 28% strikeout rate or higher against southpaws this season.

betmgm bonus code

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Luke Weaver — 5.0 implied runs

First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET

RHP Luke Weaver has pitched for three teams this season, with the Reds and then Mariners cutting bait before the Yankees were the next team to grab the 30-year-old washout off the scrap heap for one last hurrah. Even though Weaver has allowed just three runs in 9.1 innings and struck out 10 in his two starts wearing pinstripes, this old dog has not learned any new tricks. There is a reason he has been on five teams in the last two seasons: It is because his time in the league is just about up.

Combining this five-team production into one stat line, Weaver has a .385 wOBA and a .221 ISO across his last 719 batters faced. Basically, he makes opposing hitters look like a slight better version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and tonight he will be facing the actual Vladdy Jr. Brandon Belt is healthy once again, but we can only play one of him and Guerrero on DraftKings and Yahoo, where they only have first base eligibility.

Bo Bichette and George Springer round out the trio to target, but we can play all four together on FanDuel, where the utility slot allows for extra flexibility. Cavan Biggio, Dalton Varsho, Matt Chapman and Kevin Kiermaier can be employed as a bottom-of-the-order stack for direct leverage against their far more popular teammates.

React App

Main Slate Secondary Targets

Atlanta has clinched the best record in the National League, so we may not see all of their regulars tonight. In turn, that means the Dodgers are locked into the second-best record, so they could rest some players as well. Of course, with Mookie Betts (+350) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (-550) in the National League MVP race, would one of them or their respective teams risk an injury this close to the postseason, or will this duo be allowed to battle for the hardware?

Looking to the Yankees as leverage against the popular Bassitt is a fine strategy, and the Cubs at least are going to be running out their best hitters, so joining the crowd in running out Chicago stacks is also fine. Just be sure to look for a little differentiation against RHP AJ Smith-Shawver.

Lastly, we have the Rockies, who at least are home and rolling out a righty-laden lineup against LHP Ryan Yarbrough, though they are seeing their fair share of popularity in the Stokastic Top Stacks tool. Then there are always the understudies and reserves seeing action for the playoff contenders who are resting stars — plus, those players are unlikely to be pinch-hit for if they are on teams locked in the standings.

sleeper promo code stokastic4

Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities

Carlos Santana is an interesting option in the sports wagering market for his total home run prop. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows that Santana has +689 “true odds” of knocking one out of the park, and the +750 odds currently available are indicative of a line that is inefficient by close to 8%. This is still a wild card wager, as there is just a 13% chance that he will hit one out of the park this afternoon against RHP Dakota Hudson.

This season, Santana has a .187 ISO when swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Even if a southpaw comes in from the bullpen, the smooth switch-hitting Santana has a .172 ISO from the right side. For those looking for a more frequent payout, look to Santana over 1.5 total bases, but just know that anything under -165 is a negative expected value proposition. That does not mean it is a bad bet, but there are likely better bets available.

Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!

Final Thoughts for Thursday, September 28 | MLB DFS Picks

Keep tabs on the East Coast, with the venues in Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia at risk of in-game rain.

Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock, at 6:00 p.m. ET, brought to you by OwnersBox. Click through this link and create an account to receive up to a $500 first deposit match AND a FREE WEEK of Stokastic NFL Sims Max, a $59.95 value — full details here.

prizepicks promo code
Eric MacPherson
Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
MLB Lineup Study
MLB Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
NHL Discord Server
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
PGA Lineup Study
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
Formula 1 Projections
F1 Discord Server
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics