MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Aces Abound! (June 30)

Monday brings divergence to the MLB featured-slate, with FanDuel and Yahoo including every game with a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch, while DraftKings is going with a 7:07 p.m. ET lock with six games. You will want to register early on Yahoo, which is locking with the first game at 12:05 p.m. ET. As we review the MLB DFS picks for today, leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the smartest way to uncover value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using data-backed tools is key.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the New York Yankees are the coveted team in Toronto, with the Philadelphia Phillies looking good on Yahoo and FanDuel, which are including the two games beginning in the 6 o’clock hour. On the pitching front, there are ample aces — led by Garrett Crochet, Zack Wheeler and Logan Webb.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

Also in this game is RHP Matt Waldron, who has been working through an oblique strain. Waldron is the only active “knuckleball” pitcher in the league, though it is key to not that this offering accounted for 27% of his pitches in his rookie season and 38% last year. He has recorded pitch counts of 87 and 90 as the highs in his five rehabilitation starts at Triple-A, which makes him very interesting on Yahoo, where his $27 salary is just two dollars above the floor.

In Boston, LHP Garrett Crochet will be on the mound against the Reds, who are in the bottom-quartile of the league with a 76 wRC+ against southpaws. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ball park factors, among other variables, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This means that Cincinnati is creating runs 24% below league average against lefties.

The projected lineup for Cinci has a 24.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since the start of last year, with Matt McLain (29.2%, 65 plate appearances), Elly De La Cruz (30.6%, 327 PAs), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (33.3%, 66 PAs) and Rece Hinds (46.7%, 30 PAs) well above league average. Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Crochet has a -150 line on under 8.5 strikeouts for most books, with those offering under 7.5 posting it at +115, indicating he is nestled in right around eight Ks for his median outcome. Enjoy!

This year, across 107.1 innings, Webb is producing a career-high 10.06 strikeouts per nine innings the projected lineup for Arizona does have a strong 16.4% strikeout rate over the last season-plus.

The projected lineup takes a downgrade with Corbin Carroll on the shelf, though only three hitters have struck out above league average during this timeframe. For those wondering, it is Pavin Smith (26.8%, 358 PAs), Eugenio Suarez (25.7%, 696 PAs) and Alek Thomas (23.6%, 284 PAs).

Current Arizona batsmen have posted a .198/.229/.294 triple-slash line in 126 at bats against Webb, with one home run, nine doubles, five walks and 32 strikeouts. Webb finished second in the 2023 National League Cy Young Award voting and he currently has the third-best odds for the trophy at this time.

Other options for Monday include LHP Carlos Rodon in Toronto. While the Blue Jays lineup does not have many easy strikeout candidates, the flipside of that coin is that only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ernie Clement have power numbers that are above league average. This duo produces at an All-Star level against lefties, but the rest of the lineup is beyond dreadful.

In Seattle, RHP George Kirby is worth a mention against Kansas City. The Royals see most of their production concentrated in Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino when facing right-handed hurlers. That leaves the bottom of the order as a potential three-up, three-down spot, with youngsters Jac Caglianone and Drew Waters likely in the lineup, along with “platoon-specialists” that are not all that special in John Rave and Kyle Isable.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees

In his 11 campaigns between 2011 and 2021, Scherzer was simply dominant, making eight All-Star teams, winning the Cy Young three times, while finishing second once, third twice and fifth twice. In 2015 he had a pair of no-hitters, including missing a perfect game when he hit the 27th batter with a pitch. He also tied an MLB record the next season with a 20-strikeout game.

Tonight will be the third start of the season for the soon-to-be 41-yeaer-old, with a 10 week stretch on the injured list for an inflamed thumb after his Toronto debut in late-March. Scherzer had a pair of rehabilitation starts and on Wednesday, he recorded 83 pitches across five innings. He should be good for 85-to-90 pitches, though keep in mind he is still going to challenge hitters, which could be troublesome against a power packed New York lineup.

Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger are the priority plays, with aging slugger Giancarlo Stanton a discount dandy, who is live for a home run or a golden sombrero (aka four strikeouts) tonight.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Main Slate Alternate Target: Tampa Bay Rays

Back in 2018, LHP Jacob Lopez was a 26th round selection in the MLB Draft, landing with San Francisco. The next season he was moved to Tampa Bay, for disappointing outfield prospect Joe McCarthy, who was out of the league and playing in Japan by 2022. Lopez in the meantime worked his way through the Tampa organization, getting a cup of coffee in August of 2023. In December 2024, the Rays sent LHP Jeffrey Springs and Lopez to the Athletics, in return for a trio of low-upside prospects.

Lopez has a modicum of strikeout potential, though control and lack of any “out” pitch make him a low-leverage reliever or swingman at best. There has been rain all morning in the Tampa area, though expectations are that it should clear up for the game window, before the precipitations resumes tonight. This should keep the temperatures in the low-80s, though the humidity will likely be in the 70%-plus range, along with a 5-to-10 mph breeze out to right field, which bodes well for home runs at Steinbrenner Field.

Tampa is betters suited to face right-handed pitching, though the salary relief from catcher Danny Jansen, utility infielder Curtis Mead and gloveman Jose Caballero is helpful with all of the bucks deluxe pitching options. Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero are the foundational building blocks, with Jonathan Aranda and Christopher Morel wild cards, depending on personal preference, positional need and batting order slot.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Patrick Corbin over 2.5 earned runs. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Baltimore has disappointed this season, despite having a lineup teeming with promising bats. The Orioles have been particularly bad against southpaws, posting a 73 wRC+ against lefties this season, which is the fourth-worst figure in the league, accompanied by a .087 ISO, which is dead last. Of course, Corbin is tied for the most home run allowed in the league since the start of the 2022 season, with Jose Berrios who has also ceded 97 round-trippers, albeit in 72.1 more innings.

In his last eight starts, Corbin has allowed three or more runs six (75%) times, though it should be noted that four of these outings resulted in exactly three earned runs. The 35-year-old signed a one-year $1.1 million deal with Texas, otherwise he likely would have been out of the league. The names aren’t sexy, but Ramon Laureano, Gary Sanchez and Ramon Urias have the upside to force two “Ernies” themselves, leaving the rest of the lineup to find one more while Corbin is on the mound.