Monday kicks off a new workweek with a nine-game featured slate locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is going with a 6:40 p.m. ET start, including the Tampa Bay Rays in Detroit against the Tigers. As we dig around for the MLB DFS picks for today, leaning on Stokastic’s MLB DFS Simsoptimizer and MLB DFS projections is the best way to find value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using smart, +ROI tools is vital.
According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds are the teams to target, with the Arizona Diamondbacks a strong contrarian play against Yu Darvish, who is making his first start of the season. On the pitching front it is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cristopher Sanchez and Jacob deGrom as the trio to target as foundational building blocks.
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD at MIL)
Dodgers at Brewers – 3.5 implied runs First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET $10,500 at DraftKings $10,600 at FanDuel $51 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool is happy that there is another day of strong pitching options, with a break from Coors Field, as well as the two MiLB parks. This creates some fun decision points across the various MLB DFS platforms given some of the nuanced salaries.
Not one, not two, but three is now the consecutive losing streak for the Dodgers, who have stopper RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto slated to toe the rubber in Milwaukee tonight. In his last 12 innings, the 26-year-old held the Chicago White Sox to one run across seven frames in Los Angeles and blanked the Rockies for five in Coors Field.
Rhys Hoskins was just placed on the injured reserve with a grade 2 thumb sprain, taking a key bat away from the Brew Crew, plus Garrett Mitchell (shoulder) will be having surgery tomorrow. The hope is he will be ready for spring training. The projected Milwaukee lineup has a .111 ISO against right-handed hurlers this season, though the tradeoff in fantasy is a lower 18.0% strikeout rate. Fortunately, Yamamoto has the talent to make his own magic at the plate.
Lefties Christian Yelich and Jake Bauers have the best hitting profiles against righties. Catcher William Contreras and youngster Jackson Chourio are competent hitters, though each is far better against southpaws.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Christopher Sanchez (PHI at SF)
Phillies at Giants – 3.3 implied runs First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET $8,800 at DraftKings $10,000 at FanDuel $50 at Yahoo
Salary becomes a significant part of the decision-making process with pitching alternatives to Yamamoto. Interestingly enough, Jacob deGrom is $200 less than his National League counterpart on DraftKings but $400 higher on FanDuel ($11,200, 5.6%) and a hefty $7 more on Yahoo ($58, 13.7%).
The 37-year-old has been efficient this season, averaging nearly six innings per start and 14.35 pitches per frame (ranks fifth overall this season). In his last start, deGrom recorded 92 throws, which was his highest figure of his last seven appearances. He closed out the sixth inning in six of these outings while also collecting six quality starts. For reference, the total pitch counts were 92, 89, 84, 82, 81, 81 and 81 in this stretch.
Anaheim is favorable to pitchers, and the Angels (26.0%) have struck out at the second-highest rate in the league this year against right-handed hurlers, trailing only the Colorado Rockies (26.4%).
The projected Los Angeles lineup has a 24.5% strikeout rate against righties this season, with only first baseman Nolan Schanuel (12.0%, .157 ISO, 276 plate appearances) being a threat. LuisRengifo (18.4%, .063 ISO, 244 PAs) will put the ball in play, but it rarely results in extra-base hits.
Turning our attention to the featured hurler for this section, LHP Cristopher Sanchez gets a favorable venue upgrade tonight in San Francisco, which is far more pitching friendly than Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park.
Sanchez provides a significant $1,500 savings to deGrom on DraftKings ($8,800, 17.1%), FanDuel — where he is $1,200 cheaper ($10,000, 12.0%) — and Yahoo ($8 lower at $50, 16.0% ownership). This is pushing deGrom’s tournament representation down on the two-pitcher sites, which does increase his appeal for savvy gamers.
Sanchez gets a nice matchup against a below-average Giants lineup that has struggled against southpaws, with only a 79 wRC+ this season. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes different variables such as park factor, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This indicates that San Francisco is scoring runs 21% less efficiently than league average.
The Giants did have Matt Chapman return to action this weekend, giving them another key hitter in the heart of the order, though only he, Rafael Devers and Heliot Ramos have been above average against lefties this season. Luis Matos (.268 ISO, 42 PAs) has power when he connects, and prospect Tyler Fitzgerald is a tough out at the bottom of the order, though far from insurmountable.
This has been another strong season for Sanchez, who has maintained a 57.4% ground ball rate while increasing his strikeout rate from 20.4% last year to 26.2% this season. He is not as elite as fellow ground ball artists RHP Logan Webb and LHP Framber Valdez, but he is in the same conversation.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Alternative Target: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox vs. Rockies – 5.9 implied runs First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET Opposing Starter: LHP Austin Gomber DK Top Stack %: 12.4% FD Top Stack %: 9.1%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool loves Boston today, with the Red Sox getting a third consecutive game against a lefty starter. The BoSox took care of business this weekend in Washington, scoring 16 runs against the Nationals, including nine against Mitchell Parker on Saturday and four against rookie Shinnosuke Ogasawara in his MLB debut. Plus the team had 11 runs on Friday for 37 total in the three-game series.
Tonight it will be LHP Austin Gomber, and while he avoids having to start in Coors Field, he is still facing a buzzsaw lineup that is firing on all cylinders. For the season, the Red Sox have a 118 wRC+, which ranks fourth in the league, and their .173 ISO is seventh overall. Gomber has made only four starts this season after dealing with a shoulder issue. In his 19.2 innings, he has just six strikeouts while issuing four walks and ceding four home runs. Three of these starts were in Coors Field, and one was in Atlanta.
Youngsters Nate Eaton and Roman Anthony are still getting their feet wet, with Eaton seeing only 13 plate appearances against southpaws and Anthony getting 27 same-handed matchups. Eaton is likely to be leading off as the punt du jour, while uber-prospect Anthony should be in the three-hole. Veterans Rob Refsnyder and Trevor Story will stabilize the middle of the order, and two more prospects in first baseman Romy Gonzalez and catcher Carlos Narvaez have already had success in righty-lefty matchups.
Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:
Late Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks at Padres – 3.9 implied runs First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET Opposing Starter: RHP Yu Darvish DK Top Stack %: 5.7% FD Top Stack %: 5.3%
Tonight RHP Yu Darvish will be making his season debut after dealing with elbow inflammation. He made one start in mid-May for Triple-A El Paso, though he felt discomfort in his elbow after just 51 pitches. Since then he has been working on his stamina with bullpen sessions and simulated games, but it is hard to expect more than 50 to 60 pitches from the 38-year-old.
Corbin Carroll is off the injured list; however, he is 0-for-9 his two games, with five strikeouts. He is dealing with a bone chip in his left wrist and had just one rehabilitation appearance before getting back in the action well before his expected return date. While he is tricky to trust, switch-hitters Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo are both outstanding from the left side of the plate. Eugenio Suarez has been on a tear for most of the season, forming a terrific righty-lefty combo with former Cleveland first baseman Josh Naylor.
On the late slate, outfielders Jake McCarthy and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are fine differentiation plays, particularly if using one over Carroll.
For the featured slate, if Boston and Arizona are not your cup of tea, look to the Reds in Cincinnati against RHP Janson Junk or Toronto in Chicago against White Sox rookie RHP Sean Burke.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Brady Singer under 4.5 strikeouts. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.
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Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.
Singer projects for a tick over five strikeouts tonight, but the Miami lineup has been improving and pesky. While the soon-to-be 29-year-old hurler had seven or more strikeouts in two of his last three appearances, he had only those two outings above five in his last 12 games. Kelly Stowers (32.5%, 246 PAs), Connor Norby (27.2%, 180 PAs) and Dane Myers (25.8%, 132 PAs) are the only Marlins striking out at an above-league-average rate against righties, with the latter two hitters being at the back of the order. Singer is a gamer, but he also has to deal with his new home being very hitting and homer friendly in Great American Ballpark.
How to get the most out of your MLB DFS picks with Stokastic Sims — it’s more than just an MLB DFS optimizer!
Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format.
As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders.
He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience.
Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or
contact EMac by emailing [email protected].
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