MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
It is going to be hot and humid in Chicago, which is a boost for the offenses, though it looks like the rain will hold off from reaching the stadium. The Pale Hose have a little pop against right-handed hurlers, with veteran outfielders Mike Tauchman and Andrew Benintendi both enjoying the platoon advantage, and young infielders Lenyn Sosa and Colston Montgomery both seeing the ball well. There are also strikeouts to be had with four hitters in the projected lineup striking out 28% or higher against righties this season.
In his last 11 starts, Cecconi allowed more than three runs only once, posting a 3.36 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 52 strikeouts and nine home runs allowed in 67 innings. The 26-year-old has seen a slight uptick in his strikeout rate from 19.0% last year to 20.4% this season. That is below average, though he should have some opportunities to make some magic happen at the plate against the ChiSox.
The bucks deluxe option today is RHP Zack Wheeler, who is in the midst of a career season, trailing only Paul Skenes in the National League Cy Young Award race. On Saturday, LHP Jesus Luzardo was able to tame the Texas offense, allowing one run in six innings on the way to a 3-2 victory. The dichotomy of this lefty-righty duo is helpful for Wheeler, even with the Rangers projected lineup being a competent crew against right-handed pitchers.
Depending on your DFS site of choice, RHPs Zack Littell and Mike Burrows are potential salary savers as the Cincinnati Reds and Pirates wrap up their series in Pittsburgh. In Detroit, RHP Casey Mize is going against the Los Angeles Angels with the Tigers -207 favorites to garner the win. LHP Max Fried wraps up the viable options as another spendy selection, though the southpaw offers more strikeout upside than any of the pitchers preceding him in this paragraph. Houston will be running out a fully right-handed lineup, but the Yankees are -208 favorites at home and Fried should go deep enough into this game to be in a position to collect a potential victory.
He closed out the sixth inning in all 22 of his outings, which enabled him to collect 16 quality starts — tied for the league lead. While the first-time All-Star is content to let his defense do the heavy lifting, he has increased his strikeout rate from 21.4% last year to a strong 24.8% this season, averaging close to a whiff per inning.
Tampa is missing slugger Jonathan Aranda, and that leaves the team thin on power bats. While the Rays do not offer a lot of strikeouts (20.3%), if Woo can work around Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, he should be in the mix for another quality start.
Across his last six starts, RHP Dylan Cease was somewhat unlucky with a 4.78 ERA, as compared to his 4.26 FIP and 3.16 xFIP. In these 32 frames, he had a whopping 45 strikeouts, which, of course, is desirable for DFS.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Cease projects for right around 7.5 strikeouts tonight. That is impressive considering the projected Boston lineup does a decent job of avoiding whiffs (21.4%)
In Arizona, RHP Brandon Pfaadt gets the cherry matchup against Colorado with the Rockies continuing to be abysmal in every facet of the game. Pfaadt did give up seven runs, including a trio of taters in Detroit at the end of July, though even including that ignominious start, he had a 3.82 ERA, 3.95 FIP and 4.27 xFIP in his last five appearances. He is a stellar SP2 on DraftKings ($6,700) and is adequate on Yahoo ($39).
The hapless Washington Nationals are in San Francisco, facing venerable veteran RHP Justin Verlander. Though he is no longer an apex ace, the 42-year-old still has enough tricks up his sleeve to serve as an SP2, particularly on Yahoo ($32). He is unlikely to go more than five innings, but he should be able to provide a handful of strikeouts and survive against the meandering Nationals.
Wrapping things up is (please note, Glasnow is indeed right handed, sorry for the confusion) RHP Tyler Glasnow taking on the Toronto Blue Jays in Dodger Stadium. The southpaw is a strikeout artist, though it is important to note that Toronto has the lowest strikeout rate (17.2%) in the league against southpaws, with only three hitters in the projected lineup striking out more than 16.5% of the time against lefties.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
The 32-year-old began his MLB career in 2017 as an undrafted free agent, signing with the Los Angeles Angels. He was released during the canceled 2020 MiLB season, having never cleared Double-A. In 2021, he signed a minor league deal with Miami, again not clearing Double-A before choosing free agency and signing with Milwaukee. There he did get to play for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, and then in 2024 he also saw action in Triple-A for Boston. Next up was a stint on the Athletics, where he finally reached The Show, but he was dreadful and ended up being designated for assignment, and Houston claimed him two days later.
Alexander’s perseverance is impressive, but it is not going to save him from a likely thrashing this afternoon at the hand of the Bronx Bombers. Aaron Judge is, of course, carrying an elevated salary, though Cody Bellinger is the only other player with more than a nominal salary on the main DFS sites.
Other stacking options include Atlanta at home against RHP Cal Quantrill, and the top 6 hitters are all in play. In turn, the Marlins right-handers look good against LHP Joey Wentz, as the Braves are simply out of quality starting pitchers. On Yahoo and DraftKings, both sides of the Royals-Twins game are viable opportunities as the Twins run out RHP Jose Urena (who is on his fourth team this season) and the Royals counter with RHP Ryan Bergert.
The weather in Baltimore is appealing with temperatures in the upper 80s and a light 8 to 10 mph breeze out to right field. The Athletics and Orioles are once again poised to trade haymakers as the A’s start RHP Luis Morales and the O’s select southpaw Cade Povich. This will be the first start for Morales, who saw two innings in relief on Aug. 1, logging 37 pitches. He should be good for around 50 to 60 pitches and three or so innings this afternoon.
Finally, in Detroit the Motor City Kitties get to face RHP Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 13.0% strikeout rate and a 54.2% hard-hit rate across 731 batters faced since the start of last year.
Late Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Gordon was a sixth-round selection by Atlanta in the 2019 MLB Draft, so his career was off to a slow start with the pandemic canceling the 2020 MiLB season. He meandered through the low minors with the Braves, finally reaching Triple-A in 2023 before being traded to the Rockies alongside Victor Vodnik for Pierce Johnson (no, I have not heard of these guys either).
The 27-year-old has seen his strikeout rate slide from a dreadful 16.2% last year to a putrid 12.1% this season. He has actually been worse on the road with a 9.98 ERA and a .384/.423/.696 triple-slash line, making opposing hitters look like a combination of Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are the core four, with Adrian Del Castillo and James McCann in play on Yahoo and DraftKings to fulfill the pesky catcher requirement.
San Francisco is also in play against LHP MacKenzie Gore, who is suffering a third consecutive July swoon. His velocity, spin rates and movement are a little off from the first half of the season, though not enough to be a cause for his recent meltdowns. In his last four starts, he lasted only 15.2 innings, giving up 23 runs, six round-trippers and 11 walks while only striking out 10. Prior to this swoon, he was looking like a frontline starter, with a stellar 3.02 ERA, 2.93 FIP and 3.22 xFIP, accompanied by 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Sonny Gray to record fewer than 5.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
This season, the projected lineup for Chicago has a 20.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers, with only Seiya Suzuki (27.1%, 328 plate appearances) and Dansby Swanson (27.5%, 346 PAs) striking out at an above average rate. Four of the top six hitters also have a 9.8% or better walk rate, which should help Gray burn through some of his pitch count. The team also has plenty of power and with game-time temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s and a 50% to 60% humidity range, the balls should be jumping off the bats at Busch Stadium.
