MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 12
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The projected lineup for Los Angeles has a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last season, with only Nolan Schanuel (15..9%, 585 plate appearances) and Luis Rengifo (14.7%, 361 PAs) below 24%.
Jo Adell (29.5%, 437 PAs), catcher Logan O’Hoppe (30.5%, 521 PAs) and Kyren Paris (37.3%, 126 PAs) could facilitate half a dozen strikeouts for King themselves.
Across his last 934 batters faced, King had a 27.7% combined strikeout rate, an impressive .119 ISO and a low 7.8% walk rate. Enjoy!
San Diego is coming off a weekend series at Coors Field, which, of course, usually takes a day of adjustment for hitters, with the dramatic change from how pitches move in the Mile High City as compared to sea level.
Normally, we wouldn’t want to target an offense that just put up 21 runs on Saturday, ending the tenure of Colorado manager Bud Black. However, for the late slate, LHP Yusei Kikuchi is in play, and over 4.5 strikeouts on the pick’em sites is appealing, along with anything better than -110 at sportsbooks.
Mahle is coming back from a couple of injury-riddled seasons, and he will be 31 years old this fall. Currently, he is second in the league with a 1.48 ERA and 14th with an 0.981 WHIP, so do not worry about his recent strikeout drought.
The Rockies have inflated power numbers due to their home park, but everything else is dreadful, including the projected lineup having a 6.4% walk rate, .270 wOBA and a 27.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Hancock worked his way up through the minors, though he did not flash a lot of upside potential. The soon-to-be 26-year-old has a mid-90s fastball, but with no real secondary pitches, he tends to nibble too much, which can lead to walks. Most season-long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat) have him in the range of 6.4 to 6.5 strikeouts and 1.3 to 1.4 home runs per nine. Technically, he has been unlucky with his 5.70 ERA against a 4.19 xERA and 4.06 xFIP, though that should not dissuade anyone from riding with the Yankees.
Aaron Judge holds the MLB Triple Crown right now with a .409 average, 14 home runs and 39 RBIs. Teammate Paul Goldschmidt is second overall with a .349 average, contributing four round-trippers and an excellent 11 doubles, leading to a .349/.398/.500 triple-slash line. Ben Rice and Trent Grisham have been locked in against opposite-handed pitchers, and while lefties get a benefit in Yankee Stadium, their power should play just fine against Hancock in Seattle.
It is a shame that Jazz Chisholm and Giancarlo Stanton are injured, though that keeps Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe in more prominent spots in the batting order. Cody Bellinger is also an option for full stacks, giving gamers countless ways to craft rosters filled with the Bronx Bombers.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers
The 23-year-old was the ninth overall selection in the 2023 MLB Draft, and it looks like he is going to get his training on the job. It would not be a surprise if he ended up back in the minors for a couple of summer starts when the heat is enveloping Coors Field, but for now he is in the big leagues. To his credit, he has not allowed a home run in his last three starts, including an outing at home where he held Atlanta to just one run. In the other two games, Detroit got him for six runs in three innings at altitude, and the Royals tagged him for five “Ernies” across 4.2 innings in Kansas City.
Corey Seager was out on Sunday as he continues to work his way back from a hamstring issue that had him on the injured list. Expectations are that he will play tonight, though the organization has said it will be a game-by-game situation that is monitored as it would like to keep its 31-year-old superstar healthy.
Josh Smith and Wyatt Langford have been knocking the cover off the ball this season, with Smith posting a .422 wOBA and .217 ISO in 91 lefty-right matchups, and Langford not far behind at a .358 wOBA and a .205 ISO in 88 same-handed matchups.
Designated hitter Joc Pederson has struggled, but he is available at a discount, with Adolis Garcia also looking appealing. Josh Jung can help round out full stacks, and the slumping Marcus Semien is skippable to grant additional differentiation from other Texas stacks.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Jo Adell under 0.5 total bases, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Keep in mind that walks do not count towards total bases, only hits do — so this is essentially saying that Adell will not get a hit tonight. He has a tough matchup against King and the San Diego bullpen is also decent.
