MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The Southsiders scored a whopping 61 runs in the first seven games after the All-Star Break, though things are beginning to normalize with just five runs in their last two tilts. Miguel Vargas has pop (when he can connect) against lefties, while rookie Chase Meidroth has provided decent contact from the top of the order. Rookie catcher, Edgar Quero has also been able to get the bat on the ball, though his power is still developing. These youngsters have limited overall exposure to frontline southpaws like Sanchez, who should still have the upper hand.
The 28-year-old has a nice 26.6% combined strikeout rate, which is well above his career-low 20.4% last season. That propelled Sanchez into being a late add to the National League All-Stars, though he was deserving. He also has a strong 59.6% ground ball rate this season, which is a tick above his career rate (57.6%), and another key metric is just 19 home runs in 305.2 innings since the start of last year, which works out to 0.56 per nine.
Luis Robert Jr. missed two games with a sore adductor, though he came back to serve as the designated hitter on Sunday. Unfortunately, he was hit on his right arm by a 100 mph pitch in the ninth inning, so between his maladies and potential to be traded, he may not be in the lineup, which would leave 34-year-old journeyman Michael A. Taylor as the only competent veteran bat.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 home runs tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates!
DFS gamers know what they are getting in Valdez, who produced a 3.02 ERA, 3.34 FIP and 3.21 xFIP over the last four-plus seasons across 132 starts. He also had nearly one strikeout per inning in this timeframe while also being arguably the best ground ball pitcher in the league (62.1%), which is a unique combination.
The Nationals active roster is in the bottom third of the league with an 89 wRC+ against southpaws this season. Washington has struck out at a 24.2% clip, which is the seventh highest in the league against left-handed pitching, with a .135 ISO that is in the bottom third of the league as well.
CJ Abrams and James Wood have been the only consistent hitters against southpaws, even though they are lefties themselves. The overall projected lineup has a 26.2% strikeout rate with a .149 ISO, giving Valdez room for upside.
Tonight Washington is rolling out RHP Brad Lord, who is being stretched out as a starter. The rookie was an 18th-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft and the 31st-ranked prospect in the Nationals system. The 25-year-old has a future value rating of 35+, which indicates he is essentially replacement level at best.
Other options tonight include veteran LHP Matthew Boyd in Milwaukee against rookie RHP Jacob Misiorowski, with both pitchers receiving their first All-Star nominations this season. Boyd has the better matchup and Misiorowski the wicked strikeout upside, albeit at a lofty premium, considering the matchup against the Chicago Cubs.
The forecast for Kansas City is hot and humid in the low 90s, along with 60% humidity and a light 6 to 9 mph breeze out to left field. Those are less-than-ideal pitching conditions for RHP Spencer Strider, though not unlike what it would be like if he were in Atlanta for this start. The addition of outfielder Randal Grichuk is not going to do much to boost the K.C. offense, but he is competent in same-handed matchups. The main worries will be Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and veteran Salvador Perez; however, aside from Grichuk, the back of the order looks like a three-up, three-down spot for a pitcher as accomplished as Strider.
San Francisco is calling up rookie RHP Carson Whisenhunt for his MLB debut Francisco in a favorable matchup at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Whisenhunt is the second-ranked prospect in the Giants system and has a phenomenal changeup that sets up all of his other pitches. Strikeouts are not likely to follow him from the minors, though for tonight he is a very interesting discount dandy at the minimum pitcher salary on FanDuel ($5,500) and Yahoo ($25). The soon-to-be 25-year-old is fully stretched out, so he should be able to push the 75- to 80-pitch range if things go well. Whisenhunt is also in the DraftKings mix ($7,000), though his lack of strikeout certainty is magnified, more so than on the other sites, with the higher cap hit.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners
Even prior to leaving Oakland behind, Sears struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .210 ISO with a subpar 17.9% strikeout rate since the start of last year. DraftKings and Yahoo did a good job of goosing the salaries for Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez, though the existence of Whisenhunt renders that moot on the secret site, with DraftKings also having enough mispriced players to make M’s stacks feasible.
Those looking for late-slate differentiation can swap from Raleigh to fellow backstop Mitch Garver, who has a .192 ISO and a 12.6% walk rate against lefties this season. It is never fun going away from the league leader in home runs, but savvy gamers know where to look for edges, even when they are uncomfortable. Utilityman Dylan Moore is decent against southpaws and can be used as a discount dandy in full stacks, helping to lower the overall average cost of the Seattle sluggers.
Main Slate Primary Target: Texas Rangers
Joc Pederson is back after missing two months with a hand injury, and while he has a truly pathetic .127/.262/.230 triple-slash line, he is in play on DraftKings at the $2,000 minimum salary. Skip him on Yahoo ($11) and most likely on FanDuel ($2,400), where the salary savings are not as dramatic. Josh Smith is a far better play across the board, assuming he sticks in the leadoff slot. Though he has only five doubles and one home run in 79 July plate appearances, he is all but assured of five opportunities as the leadoff hitter for the road team.
Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia and Wyatt Langford have all been locked in over the last month, while Evan Carter also provides upside with the platoon advantage over Kochanowicz.
For those preferring to employ stacks in better hitting weather, the Dodgers look good in Cincinnati against RHP Chase Burns. It is going to be in the upper 80s with elevated humidity and a 6 to 9 mph breeze out to centerfield. The rookie hurler has phenomenal strikeout upside, racking up 10 K’s in each of his last two games, though he also has control issues, proffering 11 walks in his last 16.2 innings. He also had a fabulous meltdown in his second start, managing to record just one out while allowing seven runs in Boston to the Red Sox.
Atlanta has a strong matchup in Kansas City against 45-year-old LHP Rich Hill, with the lineup looking solid through the first seven hitters. Philadelphia also profiles well against RHP Davis Martin and his inability to generate strikeouts while trying to hide behind a 50% ground ball rate.
