MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Skubal is the odds-on favorite to win his second consecutive American League Cy Young Award this season, and he has helped lead Detroit to the fourth-best record in the league and just half a game behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the best record in the AL. Miami’s youngsters have been frisky at times over the last couple of months, though the Marlins have a lot of inexperienced hitters about to face the toughest pitcher ever from their respective careers.
The projected Miami lineup has four hitters who have had fewer than 100 plate appearances against southpaws this season, with five carrying a 25% or higher strikeout rate against lefties. That bodes well for Skubal, who has improved from a wicked 30.0% combined strikeout rate last year to a 32.5% rate this season.
There was a misstep in West Sacramento two starts ago that saw Skubal give up six runs, though five were unearned. That lone “Ernie” is the one blemish across his last four appearances, spanning 27.2 innings. Enjoy!
Yamamoto also gets a park upgrade in San Francisco, with the Giants putting forth a more polished lineup than Miami. The active roster for the G-men has only 50 at-bats against Yamamoto, posting a .220/.304/.440 triple-slash line, two doubles, a trio of taters, 13 strikeouts and just six walks. The projected lineup also has five hitters who have a 23.5% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and similar to Skubal, Yamamoto has improved from 27.2% last year to a 29.1% strikeout rate this season.
Keeping in mind that the above-average power from the Giants will be offset by their home park, the 20% discount from Skubal to Yamamoto on DraftKings really becomes a close decision point.
Thursday was a wild one, with RHP Bryce Miller striking out a career-high 11 batters in 5.2 innings, despite having missed time in two different stints on the injured list due to elbow inflammation caused by bone chips that will need to be surgically removed this offseason.
Though this does not directly affect Castillo, it does show that there are plenty of strikeouts available from the Angels, even for a pitcher that does not regularly have that skillset in their toolbox.
Castillo has seen his strikeout rate slide each of the last four seasons to a career-low 21.2% this year. Left-handed batsmen have been his kryptonite as the 32-year-old leans into the run-prevention portion of his career.
Fortunately, it looks like switch-hitters Yoan Moncada and Luis Rengifo will be the only players swinging the stick from the left side of the plate tonight, and Rengifo rarely gets the ball out of the infield.
Last year Castillo had a 28.8% strikeout rate in 375 same-handed matchups, and this year he has been solid with a 24.8% rate against 330 righties. Despite playing in the same division as the Angels, only Taylor Ward has had any sort of personal success against the venerable veteran.
The Halos have ample power, though between T-Mobile Park (which is the Coors Field of pitching) and Castillo’s .127 ISO allowed to same-handed batsmen over the last season-plus, this is shaping up to be a tantalizing matchup for DFS purposes.
Other mid-tier pitching options include rookie RHP Jonah Tong at Citi Field making his third career start, facing the injury-riddled Rangers, who are without Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Evan Carter and Sam Haggerty. The win bonus will be tough to get with RHP Jacob deGrom leading Texas tonight, but the rest of the matchup is favorable.
In Milwaukee, RHP Quinn Priester is facing the St. Louis Cardinals, with the Redbirds missing key bats in Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn. Priester is not much for strikeouts, though he did have six quality starts in his last 10 outings and the Brewers are -190 home favorites tonight. Priester has really leaned into his ground ball success, with a 59.2% rate in this 10-game stretch, helping him to a 2.76 ERA, 4.08 FIP and 3.63 xFIP. Five of his last six efforts were on the road, so it is a bonus for Priester to be in front of the home crowd tonight as the Brew Crew looks to improve its league-leading 89-58 record.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
It appears that Milwaukee stacks will be somewhat underrepresented in tournaments tonight. However, things are likely to be spread out with the expansive player pools.
Catcher William Contreras was out on Wednesday after being hit in the forearm by a pitch on Tuesday. He should be in the lineup tonight, which is key since he has been one of the best producers for the Brewers. Though he did not make the All-Star team this year, he earned those honors in two of the last three seasons, also winning a pair of Silver Slugger awards and finishing fifth in the National League MVP voting last year.
He has really come on over the last month-plus, with a .309/.393/.553 triple-slash line, a .406 wOBA and a .244 ISO, resulting in an absurd 164 wRC+. That means he is creating runs 64% more than a league-average hitter during this stretch.
RHP Andre Pallante finally ended his streak of allowing a home run at six games, though that is really the only bright spot for the soon-to-be 27-year-old. Over the last two months, he has been somewhat unlucky with a 7.28 ERA, but his 4.94 FIP and 4.56 xFIP are not particularly pristine. Pallante’s strategy is to induce ground balls, letting his defense do the heavy lifting, though his lack of strikeouts (15.8% this year, down from 18.5% last season) does not allow him to work out of many jams at the plate.
Left-handed power has been an issue this season, which is problematic tonight, as the Brewers have plenty. Leadoff man Brice Turang has had a tremendous year, boasting a 10.5% walk rate and a .186 ISO in 420 opposite-handed plate appearances. He also has 24 steals, which helps his DFS upside, particularly with the league targeting St. Louis cater Pedro Pages for 63 theft attempts, the 11th most in MLB.
Christian Yelich has been dealing with a sore back, though he otherwise has been sublime this season, looking like a former MVP and two-time batting champion. Sal Frelick and switch-hitter Isaac Collins round out the hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate, but they do not have a lot of power. Pallante is far from impervious against righties, so Rhys Hoskins and Jackson Chourio also profile well tonight.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Minnesota Twins
Pfaadt was done in by an elevated .393 batting average on balls in play during this stretch, posting a low 65.6% left-on-base percentage. He did not help his own cause with just 7.41 strikeouts per nine innings, and for all their foibles, the Twins are much better when Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are healthy, and for a rare moment each is available and seeing the ball well.
Lefties Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Kody Clemens are fine plays, along with budding star Luke Keaschall, who has been batting cleanup. The Arizona bullpen is mediocre at best, though it is well rested since no reliever worked more than once since Monday.
For those seeking differentiation on the late slate, Seattle is facing former franchise fan favorite LHP Yusei Kikuchi, and the Mariners boast a strong lineup against southpaws. It is going to be cooler in the Pacific Northwest with game-time temperatures in the mid-60s, aiding an already pitching-friendly park. Kikuchi has been gobsmacked over his last three starts, giving up 18 runs in 11.2 innings while walking eight.
Fire up the top seven tonight, with Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Garver, Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor being the core crew from which to select duos and trios to set rosters apart from the rest of the field.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Gavin Sheets to have more than 1.5 total bases tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Sheets will be facing RHP Tanner Gordon tonight, which gives the veteran hitter the platoon advantage. That is a bonus, as is the opportunity for a couple of at bats against the dreadful Colorado bullpen.
