MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
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MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Tonight baseball will be going directly against the second installment of Week 1 Friday Night Football in Brazil. The prize pools are not as large as they were yesterday, though they are still sizeable since NFL is king. Check out the F-R-E-E analysis for the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers as they prepare to square off in Sao Paulo.
DraftKings has close to half a million in posted tournaments for MLB, with FanDuel falling well short of that mark at $100k. Be sure to register early, or the more dedicated seam heads will have all the glory.
In Atlanta, LHP Chris Sale will be making his second start since returning to action after missing six weeks with a rib issue. The 36-year-old did make three rehabilitation appearances, and he logged 78 pitches on Saturday in Philadelphia, holding the juggernaut offense to one solo shot in six innings while striking out nine.
Something in the mid-80s is a reasonable baseline expectation, though it would be a shock to see more than six innings from the southpaw as Atlanta is all but eliminated from the postseason.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Sale has -135 odds for over 7.5 strikeouts and +110 for under 7.5 whiffs. That is a lofty expectation, particularly with Seattle’s projected lineup carrying a 22.7% strikeout rate against lefties this season. Of course, five players in the expected lineup have struck out 24% or higher this season against lefties, including the top four hitters.
The Mariners are in a slump, having been swept in Tampa this week while losing two of three in Cleveland over the holiday weekend.
For those not enthralled by Sale, RHP Logan Gilbert has been very efficient with a career-best 34.2% strikeout rate this season, even after missing just over six weeks due to a strained flexor tendon. He has a soft cap for pitches in the low 90s, though he closed out the sixth inning in five of his last eight appearances. After having Thursday off, expect Cal Raleigh behind the plate with the phenomenal hitter also one of the best pitch framers in the league.
The Braves plated 24 runs in the last seven games and three or fewer on four occasions. Similar to Seattle, the projected Atlanta lineup has a low 20.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, though five hitters have a 23% or higher individual rate.
It sounds like RHP Hunter Brown is going to pitch tomorrow, but if he ends up starting Friday in Texas, he is a fine tournament option. Assuming he is out, then it is LHP Cristopher Sanchez in Miami who carries the most appeal among the other top-tier plays. Sanchez is likely to be the runner-up for the National League Cy Young Award, which Paul Skenes has all but wrapped up.
Sanchez has seen a major uptick in his strikeout rate, surging to 26.2% from 20.4% last year. The Marlins have four hitters in the projected lineup with a 29% or higher strikeout rate against southpaws, which is enticing to say the least.
In three of his other four games, Soriano blanked the Dodgers in Anaheim and held Houston and Texas scoreless on the road. That is an impressive 20.2 shutout innings, and to his credit, the 26-year-old should be better tonight against the A’s.
Since the start of last season, Soriano leads the league with a 63.5% ground ball rate among all starting pitchers who have at least 250 innings. The Athletics have plenty of power, but away from their offensive home base, Soriano should be able to keep the A’s power in check.
RHP Nick Pivetta is significantly more expensive than Soriano with a $2,000 premium on DraftKings and $1,400 on FanDuel. He is in Coors Field, but we can continue picking on the Rockies. The active roster for Colorado has an 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is the worst in the league, and the 24.4% strikeout rate is the second highest. These rates are also an approximation for the projected lineup, which should have six hitters who strike out 23% or more of the time against right-handed hurlers.
In six August starts, Pivetta cruised to a 2.95 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. Somehow Kyle Farmer and Orlando Arcia have each had personal success against Pivetta, but that should not dissuade anyone who has already made the decision to ride with the frontline starter in the Coors Field Extravaganza.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
In Baltimore, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be facing RHP Dean Kremer, who has been tossing batting practice. In his last two outings, Kremer allowed seven runs to the Astros and seven in San Francisco. He did shut out Houston for seven innings prior to the ‘Stros knocking him around, but with five or more runs against him in the last 10 starts, well, it is time to wear that Dodger blue!
The only thing positive for Kremer this season is his low 6.2% walk rate, but given his anemic 19.8% strikeout rate, that means opposing teams are putting a lot of balls in play. Tonight’s trio to target is Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, with Andy Pages as a differentiation piece. Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez are always options, though keeping this to three hitters allows for ample lineup variations in tournaments.
Late Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Angels
In his debut last Saturday, RHP Mason Barnett the Rangers got to him in West Sacramento for five runs in four innings with only one strikeout. He didn’t have any walks and ceded just one home run but was otherwise unimpressive. The A’s got Barnett as part of the Lucas Erceg deal, opting to see if they could help the now 24-year-old break through in The Show.
Barnett was a third-round selection out of Auburn in the 2022 MLB Draft, though he has stalled out at Triple-A with a 6.13 ERA in 119 innings in the Pacific Coast League. That is still a rough stat line, even considering most of the parks are hitter’s havens, with Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento the most pitching friendly.
Fire up the top five names on the Halos’ lineup card, with Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, Mick Trout, Yoan Moncada and Jo Adell as the preferred order of preference. On the late slate, catcher Logan O’Hoppe is in the mix on DraftKings and Yahoo to fulfill the pesky backstop requirement.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Riley Greene to hit a home run. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Greene has been outstanding this season, posting a .296 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 399 plate appearances. Rookie RHP Shane Smith has allowed 11 of his 15 home runs to batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate, and he gave up a pair of round-trippers in two of his last three games. He is at a career-high 120.1 innings, so he could be getting worn down.
