MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 10
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Ryan gets the slightest of nods, though his salary is a tick higher than Webb’s. The projected lineup for San Francisco has five batsmen who has struck out at least 23.4% of the time against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season.
The other hidden benefit of going against the Giants, is that only three of their hitters have above average power against righties. They are all very good, with Mike Yastrzemski (.225 ISO, 482 PAs), Willy Adames (.230, 630 PAs) and Matt Chapman (.215 ISO, 605 PAs) comprising that crew.
Webb is not getting as good of a strikeout scenario, though the inconsistent power of the Twins should readily be mitigated by his 56.7% ground ball rate across his last 1,037 batters faced.
For tournaments, lefties Cole Ragans and Garrett Crochet have the strikeout upside as they face their respective offenses in Kansas City.
The Royals are a top-heavy lineup, which gives Crochet a respite through the bottom of the order, that could lead to a couple three-up, three-down encounters. The Red Sox have a more balanced batting order, though the nearly 28% strikeout rate against southpaws since the start of last season gives Ragans upside potential.
Rookie RHP Shane Smith is the discounted SP2 option for DraftKings and Yahoo as he takes on the visiting Miami Marlins. The 25-year-old is not even the highest-ranked pitcher with the surname Smith (Hagan in Double-A) in the Chicago system, though he has cracked the White Sox rotation. Smith was a Rule 5 selection from Milwaukee, which means he needs to stay on the White Sox active roster all season, if healthy, in order for them to keep him for the future.
Typically a few players each season get promoted from minor league log jams, though it is usually position players who don’t quite have a position or have one really good attribute and nothing else. For pitchers, the easiest path to stay out of the minors is in the bullpen, so it is a bit of a surprise that Smith has been in the rotation for the season, though not a shock given how bereft of talent the Pale Hose organization is at all levels, particularly MLB-ready players.
Smith has closed out the fifth inning in all but one start, which means he qualifies for the win and that is actually in play today against Miami. In his last three starts, he has compiled 17 strikeouts in 15 innings, though the seven walks are risky and evidence of command and control challenges. Still, he has held his own with a 2.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, facing Boston and Minnesota twice each, as well as Cleveland, Milwaukee and Kansas City. Salary and matchup have him in play, but those are two key ingredients for DFS success.
The 24-year-old has six strikeouts, seven earned runs and eight walks in his last three starts, spanning 18.1 innings. That actually has Milwaukee looking like an offense to target, rather than Bradley picking on the Brewers.
This all conspires to have RHP AJ Smith-Shawver as the preferred pitcher, though the salary algorithms have already addressed this as well. In five starts this season, the 22-year-old prospect has allowed a grand total of nine runs, with a strikeout per inning. The 13 walks are a little dodgy, though considering the options and his ability to limit power, they are not insurmountable.
Surviving Oneil Cruz, veteran switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds and Pittsburgh legend Andrew McCutchen will be key, though the rest of the lineup is replacement level at best.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Chase Field roof is slated to be closed tonight, though that should not dissuade anyone from considering either offense in this matchup. Not many gamers are going to be rostering RHP Dustin May, so there is not much direct leverage against the field, but moving away from the San Diego Padres and Rockies in Colorado will provide some differentiation.
In his last three starts, the perpetually injured righty has tallied 14 earned runs and 14 strikeouts in 16 frames. He also has eight walks and a trio of taters and seven total extra-base hits, accompanied by three thefts. Los Angeles used four relievers in last night’s 14-11 victory, though nobody in the bullpen has pitched more than once in the last three days. That does give manager Dave Roberts some fresh arms to turn to, though it didn’t help Anthony Banda (1.2 innings four earned runs) or “winning” pitcher Alex Vesia, who gave up a pair of solo shots in his lone inning of action.
Switch-hitter Ketel Marte returned to action last week, after missing a month with a hamstring injury. In his last six at bats, he has three home runs, three RBI and four runs scored. It would appear he is healthy and locked in, making him a strong priority in stacks and as a one-off. Josh Naylor has been a solid replacement for longtime Diamondback’s first baseman Christian Walker and it looks like Pavin Smith is making good on his potential, with Corbin Carroll being one of the most well-rounded players in the game. Even Eugenio Suarez is enjoying a resurgence, knocking 11 balls out the park this season, which is one shy of the league lead.
For the late-slate, Lourdes Gurriel and Alek Thomas can provide differentiation from the bottom of the order, along with catcher Gabriel Moreno and infielder Geraldo Perdomo.
Early Slate Secondary Target: Washington Nationals
This year his groundball rate has improved from 61.6% (509 batters faced) to 66.1% (158 batters faced). However, his strikeout rate fell from a low-ish 18.5% to an anemic 13.3%, with power surging from an .098 ISO to a .190 ISO and now his walk rate sits at 10.1%. Extreme groundball pitchers can make short work of opposing offenses, but they can also create a parade of baserunners if the other team is “hitting’em where they ain’t” and getting gappers and line drives.
CJ Abrams and James Wood are the two best Washington bats and they are ensconced at the top of the order with the platoon-advantage. Nathaniel Lowe and Luis Garcia profile well against Pallente, with veterans Keibert Ruiz and switch-hitting Josh Bell far from easy outs. It is important to note that the St. Louis bullpen is rested, with former National RHP Erick Fedde pitching a complete-game shut out last night and RHP Sonny Gray and LHP Matthew Liberatore each going seven strong innings on Thursday and Wednesday, in Pittsburgh.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take Ranger Suarez over 4.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Suarez broke out last year, winning the National League Pitcher of the Month Award twice and making his first All-Star team. He suffered a back injury in spring training, which delayed his season debut until last Sunday, when he allowed seen runs in 3.2 innings to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite the messy box score, he still had six strikeouts and all of the runs occurred, despite limiting the D’backs to one extra-base hit and a pair of walks.
The 29-year-old southpaw logged 82 pitches and he is stretched out having ramped things up in the minors with 34, 54, 59 and 78 throws in his rehabilitation starts. Last year he had five-plus strikeouts in 17 of 28 (61%) of his appearances, so while there is not a lot of expected value in this line, the over is very live.
