MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Chicago’s Cinderella moment is over. After a 10-4 stretch coming out of the All-Star Break, the offense has proved to be a mirage, and the team is in the midst of a five-game skid. Unlike the Washington Nationals, who have one victory in the last eight games, the ChiSox are actually trying. The Pale Hose have six players in the projected lineup with a .220 ISO or better, though six hitters have stuck out at a 22.6% or worse rate against southpaws this season.
Cantillo has improved his strikeout rate, going from a lofty 27.2% last year, to 29.5% this season. He is also outperforming his baseline expectations (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) with 11.64 strikeouts per nine innings, which is well above the 9.4 to 9.6 per nine estimate from the models.
The 32-year-old recorded 76 pitches in his final MiLB tune-up, and he had 86 pitches in Tampa last Saturday. Considering he had a week between starts, he should be good for 90 to 95 pitches tonight.
Toronto has a scant 17.5% strikeout rate this season against lefties, which is easily the best in the league, outpacing Arizona (18.1%) and San Diego (18.7%). The projected lineup for the Blue Jays has only lefties Nathan Lukes (19.4%, 36 plate appearances), Addison Barger (31.3%, 67 PAs) and Dalton Varsho (39.1%, 23 PAs) as potential strikeout candidates.
Sticking with the late slate, RHP Luis Castillo gets to face Tampa Bay at the most pitching-friendly venue in the league. T-Mobile Park is the Coors Field for pitchers, which is a major shift for the Rays, who have been playing home games at Steinbrenner Field — a major boost for offenses given the hot and humid Florida weather.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Snell projects for right around 5.5 strikeouts tonight, which keeps him in play on the featured slate, though he is going to have to work to reach his DFS upside in this matchup.
In Texas, the roof is expected to be closed, which should help the pitchers. Though 37-year-old RHP Jacob deGrom has been stellar this season, it is important to note that he has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four games, resulting in a 5.24 ERA, 5.88 FIP and 3.25 xFIP across 22.1 innings. He does have a whopping 30 whiffs in this timeframe, which has kept him DFS relevant. The Philadelphia offense is firing on all cylinders, making this a strength-on-strength matchup.
It will be LHP Jesus Luzardo opposite deGrom tonight, with the southpaw recording seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last 10 games. The 27-yeaer-old has had some issues with tipping pitches, though that seems to be under control again. The Rangers have struggles against left-handed hurlers this season and the projected lineup has only Corey Seager (.243 ISO, 117 PAs) and Wyatt Langford (.160 ISO, 119 PAs) posting a .125 ISO or higher. Six hitters also have at least a 25% strikeout rate against lefties this season, which keeps Luzardo firmly in the mix for tournaments.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Athletics
Mountcastle returned to action after landing on the injured list at the end of May, with a strained hamstring. Unfortunately, Tyler O’Neill (wrist) and Colton Cowser (concussion) are both out, which opened the door for Noda. Rookie RHP Jack Perkins is a middling prospect, who profiles as a multi-inning reliever. The Athletics are desperate for pitching, so they have worked to stretch the 25-year-old out for a 60 to 70 pitch workload.
Look to the top of the order with Jackson Holiday, Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson being the trio to target. Adding in one of the first basemen or switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman is fine, though there is no need to go overboard.
Baltimore is countering with rookie RHP Brandon Young, who has struggled against both righties (.183 ISO, 66 PAs) and lefties (.264 ISO, 121 PAs). The soon-to-be 27-year-old was an undrafted free agent in 2020 after pitching for Louisiana-Lafayette in the Sun Belt Conference. Despite the rough results and lack of pedigree, Young does profile as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
The A’s are loaded with power and while that has been enhanced by playing in a Triple-A park, it should translate just fine to Baltimore, where game-time temperatures will be around 80 degrees, with moderate humidity. Stick with the usual suspects tonight, as lefties Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler all profile well against Young, with boppers Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers each having excellent seasons against fellow-righties.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Colorado Rockies
It is a rare twist to recommend Colorado on the road, but here we are, as the Rockies will be running out a mostly right-handed lineup. Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck and Brenton Doyle are legitimate hitters when holding the platoon advantage, even away from Coors Field. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar has been quietly producing over the last month, with a .395 wOBA and a .267 ISO against pitchers of either handedness. Rookie Warming Bernabel has also been on a heater (cwidt), crushing the ball with nine extra-base hits in 49 plate appearances, for a smoking .354/.367/.688 triple-slash line. Matchups and salary are the crux of DFS, which sometimes makes for unique situations.
The more traditional route will be rolling out Arizona stacks, with the Diamondbacks boasting a 5.8 implied team total against rookie RHP Bradley Blalock. The 24-year-old was drafted out of high school in 2019, as a 32nd round selection by Boston. He was traded to Milwaukee at the 2023 deadline, then again in 2024 to Colorado. There is not much upside for the 24th ranked prospect in Colorado’s system, though expect to see him as a multi-inning bullpen arm for the next couple of seasons.
Look to switch-hitters Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo at the top of the order, along with Corbin Carroll as priority plays. They are fine as a trio or as one-offs, though keep in mind that Arizona is the most popular stack tonight, projecting to land on 10% to 15% of all tournament rosters. Lefty outfielders Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas are differentiation plays from the back of the order, along with shortstop Blaze Alexander.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Colin Rea to allow under 5.5 hits tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Aside from Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras, the rest of the St. Louis lineup has been in a dreadful slump against right-handed hurlers over the last 30 days. The projected lineup has a .315 wOBA and a .134 ISO, which is just not going to cut it. The weather is advantageous for hitters in Busch Stadium tonight, where temperatures will be in the mid-80s and the humidity is around 50% to 60% during the game window.
