MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 17
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Tonight RHP Zac Gallen is on the mound and while he has scuffled this season, he should make good in this get right spot. The Chase Field roof will be open and the game has a 5:10 p.m. local start. This should boost the offense for both teams, though the Rockies are “improving” from one of the worst offenses in the league against right-handed pitching to “merely” well-below average.
Part of the struggles for Gallen have been in a tough schedule, with games two games against the Cubs, as well as facing the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves. To his credit, he held the Mets to just two runs in 13 innings this month, so going against Colorado should feel like a walk in the park.
Colorado has a 67 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes different variables such as park factors, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100.
This advanced metric indicates that the Rockies create runs 33% less efficiently than league average and are well behind the 76 wRC+ of the White Sox, which are the second-most pathetic team in the league.
The projected lineup for the Rockies has a 28.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last season and change. Nick Martini (18.7%) is the only batter who is below 24%, which is crazy. The team also has a substandard 6.5% walk rate and while the .166 ISO is solid, it also includes their Coors Field production.
The 34-year-old has been healthy this season, ranking in the top-20 with his 2.78 ERA, despite facing the Dodgers and Padres twice each along with road games against the Mets and Diamondbacks. Only Los Angeles put up more than three runs against him, though only half of the six the boys in blue plated were earned.
Take the easy gift and then on DraftKings close your eyes and choose between RHPs Drew Rassmussen in Miami versus the Marlins and Reese Olson in Toronto against the Blue Jays.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Marquez has been healthy for only 20 innings in 2023, four in 2024 and 37 this year. His strikeouts per nine innings have fallen all the way down to 4.86 this year after the Colorado ace averaged 9.34 per nine in 532 innings between 2017 and 2019. In five road appearances this season, Marquez has faced just 96 batters, ceding a triple-slash line of .356/.404/.433, suffering 24 runs with a scant 14 strikeouts.
The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight, which is helping to boost the Arizona team total to a lofty 6.1 runs. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte have hefty salaries on DraftKings at $6,000 and $5,300, respectively. However, no other batsmen are going to bust budgets, though with all of the aces on the mound tonight taking up cap space, gamers may not get to the top of the order. That is something to pay attention to as spending on this duo could be a way to create in-stack differentiation, depending on how the field approaches this conundrum.
FanDuel whiffed on the salaries for Josh Naylor ($3,000), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,900) and Pavin Smith ($2,900), so even though Carroll ($4,500) and Marte ($3,700) have higher-than-normal salaries for the blue site, stacking the team is not an issue. In addition to the previous five hitters, Eugenio Suarez rounds out the six most desirable bats. There is no need to gush about how this collective crew is showing fields of green on the hitting dashboards as the team total and projections are already flagging them as the most likely top stack for Saturday. Jordan Lawlar is just $2,400 on DraftKings and he is the discount dandy of the night, from the nine-hole.
The Dodgers look good at home against LHP Tyler Anderson, though we need to keep in mind that Anderson usually does a good job of limiting opposing offenses from mega-scores. In eight starts this season, he has yet to cede more than three runs in a game, though he does have a pair of multi-home run efforts. Last year he allowed more than four runs only twice, though he had five multi-home run games in his 31 appearances. Gamers are probably remembering 2023, when the 35-year-old had eight games of more than five earned runs in his 27 outings, with four multi-home run affairs.
Early Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
The Tampa Rays and Marlins are facing off in Miami, with struggling RHP Sandy Alcantara toeing the rubber for the home team. Josh Lowe just returned to the lineup, which provides another steady presence among rookies like Kameron Misner and Chandler Simpson. The 2023 National League Cy Young Award winner has been throwing batting practice this season and Tampa has enough power and discipline to post strong numbers.
That brings us to the Batters of Birdland, who are hosting the Washington Nationals in the Battle of the Beltway this weekend. The Nats will be sending out RHP Jake Irving against Baltimore, with the third-year starter getting by on smoke-and-mirrors. In his last three games, spanning 17.1 innings, the 28-year-old has allowed eight walks, five home runs and managed only three strikeouts. Yes, three as in the number after one and two.
The O’s have won only two of their last 12 games, topping three runs only twice. This lineup is just too talented to continue to slump en masse. On FanDuel, only two projected starters are more than $2,900, though things are a little more realistic on DraftKings for Gunnar Henderson ($5,200), Adley Rutschman ($4,500), Ryan O’Hearn ($4,600) and Cedric Mullins ($4,700). Still Jackson Holiday ($3,700) and Ryan Mountcastle ($3,600) should be near the top of the order, averaging down the overall cap hit for the full-stack.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Canning is in the midst of a career-year in his first season for the New York Mets. Tonight he is facing the Yankees in this cross-town rivalry, living on borrowed time. The 29-year-old is a middle of the rotation starter on his best days, so his 2.36 ERA is a bit of a surprise through 42 innings, when considering his elevated 3.43 walks per nine innings and a career 1.52 home runs per nine.
This year he has an 0.86 home runs per nine innings rate, which is likely to course correct at some point. The Projected lineup for the Bronx Bombers has a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season-plus, with Canning posting an 18.8% rate in the same timeframe. Expect some extra-base hits from Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Austin Wells and Trent Grisham being the likely producers, which could lead to a short afternoon for Canning.
