MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 7
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
He is in the chase group that has broken away from the field, attempting to catch LHP Tarik Skubal in the American League Cy Young Award race. In Colorado, RHP Clay Holmes is taking on the Rockies, who have only a 4.2 implied team total. Salary algorithms are appropriately goosing all pitchers going against Colorado, even in Coors Field.
Holmes has been solid in his first season as a full-time starter and his 67.1 innings is already above the 63.1 he averaged in the three preceding campaigns as the primary closer for the Yankees. The strikeouts are down, though still at a respectable 7.9 per nine innings and most of the season long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) have him a little higher, in the 8.1-to-8.4 range. Adobe!
After losing 7-of-8 games, Los Angeles has won three of the last four, including squeaking by the Mariners 5-4 last night. The team has benefited from the return of Mike Trout, however, aside from anemic switch-hitter Luis Rengifo and first baseman Nolan Schanuel, this is an entirely right-handed lineup including the bench.
It would seem that RHP Luis Castillo has entered the run-prevention phase of his career, as the 32-year-old is producing a career-low 7.24 strikeouts per nine innings, well below his 9.61 average and the 2022 and 2023 seasons, when he averaged 10.01 strikeouts per nine. He has done a nice job of limiting home runs and he will have the advantage of seven righty-righty matchups. The win bonus is also in play, with the Angels rolling out RHP Jack Kochanowicz and the M’s sitting as -160 favorites in Anaheim.
In his last two starts, he had four strikeouts against St. Louis and none against Toronto, though he only allowed three runs across 11.1 innings. While that is a little unnerving, it is also important to note that these are two of the four best teams at limiting strikeouts to right-handed hurlers.
The fifth-best team is Washington, so it will be interesting to see if deGrom can make his own magic at the plate.
Across the last two seasons, only youngster James Wood is striking out at an above league average rate. It is also worth noting that the bottom four hitters in the projected lineup have a collective isolated power that barely cracks .100, with a sub par 5% walk rate. That could give deGrom a couple of three-up, three-down opportunities, which will buoy his chances for a solid fantasy performance.
Other options this afternoon include RHP Hunter Brown, who is going against the Guardians in Cleveland. The home team is a haves-and-have-nots lineup, with the top four hitters boasting a strikeout rate just above 12% against right-handed hurlers over the last season plus, with the latter half of the order handing them out like it is their job. Brown’s counterpart, RHP Gavin Williams is in play on DraftKings ($8,000) as an SP2 for salary relief.
In Tampa, the Rays are hosting the Miami Marlins and while this is a hitting friendly venue, RHP Taj Bradley is another discount dandy on DraftKings ($7,000) and his strikeouts have been trending up, with 29 in his last 26 innings, with only two home runs and eight walks in these four starts.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Tonight the temperatures are going to be in the upper-80s at first pitch with a light breeze out to center field in West Sacramento at Sutter Health Park. Gunnar Henderson did not start last night, but he did get a pinch-hit walk, replacing Coby Mayo in the 8th inning and playing the field for the final two innings. He should be starting tonight, which bodes well for the Batters of Birdland.
This is going to be a long couple of seasons for RHP Luis Severino, assuming the Athletics remain at Sutter Health Park until they move to a new stadium. In eight home starts, the 31-year-old has a 6.99 ERA across 46.1 innings, ceding all four of his round-trippers at this venue. On the road, in five starts, Severino has an 0.87 ERA in 31 innings of action.
The A’s gave Severino the bag in free agency, enticing him to leave the Big Apple, for a 3-year, $67 million deal. He is still a solid pitcher, though he is no longer the pitcher who averaged 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings between 2017 and 2022, with 6.4 this season and a tick shy of eight in the preceding two campaigns. He has done a decent job of limiting home runs, but the summer weather is on the way and the home runs will follow.
Getting Ramon Laureano back yesterday will bolster the Baltimore lineup, though the team is still without Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Westburg and Gary Sanchez. Laureano used to be more of a platoon player, but he has more than held his own against fellow righties with a .329 wOBA and .199 ISO across his last 239 matchups. Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn are the priorities from the left side of the plate, with likely leadoff man Jackson Holliday and a surging Colton Cowser not far behind.
Switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman is better from the right-side of the plate, but he is in play on DraftKings and Yahoo, to fulfill the pesky backstop requirement. Lefty Heston Kjerstad is a pure punt option, best used on DraftKings ($2,500) and Yahoo ($8).
Early Slate Primary Target: Texas Rangers
In our nation’s capital, it is going to be warm with temperatures in the mid-80s and the humidity is in the 55%-to-65% range, which is a boost to hitters. Clearly that is not enough to keep us away from deGrom, but it certainly isn’t going to help LHP Mitchell Parker, who already dances on the edge of danger a couple times a game, even in pristine conditions.
The Texas offense has been turrible, just turrible this season, scoring the third-fewest runs in the league. That is partly due to Corey Seager playing in just 34 of 64 games, but several veterans have been slumping as well, with Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien each having been demoted at times to the back of the lineup.
Parker has allowed at least four runs in five of his last seven starts, with four home runs in the last three. Last year he had a 20.6% strikeout rate, though that has fallen off a cliff this season to 15.1%, while his hard hit rate has jumped from 47% to 57%. Walks have also been an issue, increasing from 2.56 per nine innings to 3.88 per nine in his 65 frames. To be clear, while he is an asset for Washington, as a cheap starter who is a couple years away from arbitration, his superpower is the ability to take the mound every five days and eat innings.
Seager is fine in lefty-lefty matchups, with Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Jake Burger being the key targets swinging the stick from the right-side of the plate. Switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim is better against southpaws and he is even in the mix on FanDuel ($2,700) assuming he is batting sixth and not eighth or ninth. To his credit, Semien has been on a tear and has moved back to the heart of the order. In his last 22 plate appearances, he has 11 hits, including a pair of doubles and a trio of taters, four walks and two stolen bases. He has crossed the plate eight times himself, pushing five teammates across with RBIs.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Bell is a switch-hitter who is better from the left-side of the plate, but the matchup against deGrom is a tough one. The hope here is that he gets only one of the hit, run or RBI and is left shy of the two needed for this under to fail. In 16 of his 51 starts (31%) Bell has tallied two or more HRR.
