MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Baseball, Hot Dogs and Apple Pie! (July 4)

Friday brings holiday baseball with multiple waves of games across DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As we review the MLB DFS picks for today, leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the smartest way to uncover value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using data-backed tools is key.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Coors Field Extravaganza is the priority target on the featured slate, with the San Francisco Giants not far behind in West Sacramento against the Athletics. Look to the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays for the afternoon action, as there is favorable hitting weather for each game. On the pitching front, Spencer Strider is the clear lead option tonight, while Bryan Woo holds those honors in the early going.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

After a late start to the season while completing his recovering from a UCL injury, Strider suffered a hamstring strain in his return, costing him another month. He has now made nine starts and built his way up to a full workload with 95, 91 and 97 pitches in his last three starts. The 26-year-old ace has seen an uptick in his velocity, as his fastball now comfortably in the 95 to 96 mph range. That is still down a touch from 2022 when he was in the upper 90s but among the best starters in the league.

For all of the handwringing over the Baltimore offense, the Batters of Birdland have been stout against right-handed hurlers. Tyler O’Neill (shoulder) is expected to rejoin the lineup Friday or Saturday, having last seen action in late April. He spent May and June in the minors, suffering a setback in his rehabilitation, which was not all that surprising, considering his injury history. Catcher Adley Rutschman is still on the injured list, and Jordan Westburg missed the last few games with a finger issue, though the O’s are otherwise getting healthy.

Strider’s median fantasy projection is nearly 30% higher than the next best mark on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, making him the foundational building block for core lineups.

In Cleveland, RHP Reese Olson is intriguing against the Guardians, with the 25-year-old allowing only six runs across his last half dozen starts. The Guardians are a haves and have-nots lineup; Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana rarely strike out, but catcher Bo Naylor, first baseman Kyle Manzardo, and outfielders Lane Thomas and Nolan Jones all have whiff rates well above league average.

The Brewers are in Miami with RHP Quinn Priester on the mound tonight for Milwaukee, and the 24-year-old looks to be in good form having notched a career-high 11 strikeouts against the comically bad Colorado Rockies. Gamers should not count on that happening again this season, though Priester closed out the sixth inning in five of his last seven starts, and he should be good for a handful of strikeouts against the Marlins.

On the season, the Pirates have an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, which is the third-lowest rate in the league. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes variables such as park factors, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This means the Bucs are scoring runs 15% less efficiently than league average, ahead of only Colorado (75 wRC+) and the Chicago White Sox (76 wRC+).

The projected lineup has a sub-.100 ISO, with the bottom of the order lucky to get the ball out of the infield, let alone post extra-base hits. Only Oneil Cruz and 38-year-old Andrew McCutchen have had consistent success against righties this season.

Philadelphia is hosting the Cincinnati Reds this weekend with LHP Jesus Luzardo driving the welcome wagon.

Since allowing 20 runs in a two-game span against Milwaukee and in Toronto, Luzardo has course-corrected, making adjustments to counter claims he was tipping his pitches.

In his four most recent starts, the former Miami ace recorded 28 strikeouts in 22.2 innings, allowing one home run and five doubles. The eight walks are a little concerning, but nothing like his meltdown a month ago.

The Reds have been middling on the road, and their projected lineup has a 24.3% strikeout rate against southpaws since the start of last year. Lefty specialist Austin Hays, catcher Tyler Stephenson and infielder Matt McLain are the only hitters that appear to be threats to Luzardo.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Alternative Target: San Francisco Giants

In West Sacramento, temperatures will be falling through the upper 70s during the game with a nice 10 to 12 mph breeze out to right-center field. We have seen Sutter Health Park play favorably to offenses, so it makes for a fine countermove against the Coors Field chalk. This has been a rough season for LHP JP Sears, who has allowed four multi-home run games, ceding the eighth most in the league. Looking at the breakdown, 12 longballs occurred in Sutter Health Park, and six were on the road, despite the 29-year-old facing 78 fewer hitters. The Athletics have a bottom-3 bullpen, which means there is nobody coming in to save the day when Sears hits the showers.

Rafael Devers and Jung Hoo Lee have both been productive in lefty-lefty matchups, while Heliot Ramos is a strong source of power from the leadoff slot. Luis Matos is a pinch-hit risk, though he is a solid salary saver who should get at least two chances against Sears, and switch-hitting catcher Patrick Bailey is a nice way to fulfill the backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for this sample MLB DFS slate:

Early Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays

This has been a rough season for Paddack, who has a career-low 6.3 strikeouts and a career-high 2.4 walks per nine innings, falling from a 20.6% combined strikeout rate last year to just 16.6% this season. Across his last 764 batters faced, the 29-year-old had an 8.7% barrel rate that was almost as high as his pitiful 10.4% swinging-strike rate.

Target the top of the Tampa order, with Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and Josh Lowe being the preferred priority order. The bottom of the lineup should be getting a boost now that rookie speedster Chandler Simpson is back up from the minors, where he stole 19 bases in 33 games. In his 44 games in The Show, he had a whopping 23 steals, ranking fifth overall, despite the limited playing time. It is also expected that Ha-Seong Kim will make his Tampa debut this afternoon, having completed his rehabilitation program for shoulder and hamstring issues. Initially, he was expected back in mid-June, but the team wanted to make sure he was fully healthy and capable of playing shortstop most days. Utility man Curtis Mead was sent back to the minors in a corresponding transaction.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Zach Neto under 0.5 hits. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Last night Neto fell a triple short of the cycle, scoring three runs and adding a stolen base in Atlanta. He is all but assured of having five plate appearances tonight as the leadoff hitter for the visiting team, but the +210 payout is enticing. Neto has decent power against opposite-handed hurlers when he makes contact. The season in 54 at-bats against lefties, the 24-year-old has 11 hits (.204 average) and one walk. He has hits in 47 of his 64 (73%) starts, so getting the hefty plus money is crucial before making this wager.