MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The projected lineup for the Yankees has a 27.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, with six hitters at 24.1% or higher. Wheeler is tied with RHP Paul Skenes for the best odds in the National League Cy Young Award race, and Pittsburgh’s ace is also an option at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Wheeler has a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate this season, including a 34.9% rate against lefties. This is well above his stellar 28.6% from last season, and the late-bloomer is nearly matchup-proof. There is late-morning rain in the New York forecast, though it should not impact the game outside of a potential late start.
There is a discount for Skenes at home against the Diamondbacks; however, it is important to account for the difference in likely workloads. Wheeler logged 100-plus pitches in eight of his last 10 starts, with the two lower efforts being 98 and 94 throws. Skenes, on the other hand, topped 80 pitches only twice in his last five appearances, recording 86, 78, 78, 88 and 78, leading to six, five, five, five and four innings (reverse chronological order). This is yet another lost season for the Pirates, who have no incentive to push Skenes aside from getting him through the fifth inning and qualifying for wins, as he does have a good chance of sliding by Wheeler to retake the Cy Young odds lead.
In summary, over his last 16 starts, Wheeler allowed more than two runs twice, with six scoreless outings. He is going to work deeper into games and have more opportunities for strikeouts than Skenes due to his higher pitch count and the Phillies looking to pass the New York Mets, who have a half-game lead in the National League East.
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Across his 16.1 innings, he allowed only three runs on a trio of solo shots, zero walks and just nine hits. He racked up 23 strikeouts, which is outstanding; however, he cruised through the Mariners in Seattle on Monday with six scoreless innings on 62 pitches. He had 81 throws against Washington two weeks ago, and in his July 6 return to action in Miami, he recorded 70 pitches. Look at his salary compared to Wheeler and Skenes and then compare the likely workloads. Caveat Emptor!
Opposing Woodruff this afternoon will be RHP Eury Perez, who has continued to regain his stamina after missing last year rehabilitating from Tommy John surgery. Milwaukee is currently tied with the Chicago Cubs for the National League Central division honors, and the Brewers have the eighth-most runs in the league.
However, the team is somewhat shorthanded with Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Mitchell and Jake Bauers all out with injuries. The projected Brew Crew lineup limits strikeouts against right-handed pitching, posting an 18.4% combined rate this season. However, the team also has a .122 ISO, as only Christian Yelich (.233 ISO, 278 plate appearances), Jackson Chourio (.177 ISO, 335 PAs), Chicago White Sox castoff Andrew Vaughn (.149 ISO, 170 PAs) and Sal Frelick (.140 ISO, 264 PAs) are above a .120 ISO.
Miami is unlikely to push Perez, though the 22-year-old should be in the 85- to 90-pitch range, or five innings, whichever comes first. Perez looks like a nice SP2 on DraftKings ($8,000) and to a lesser extent on Yahoo ($44).
In Chicago, the White Sox finally faltered, managing just one run against their cross-town rivals. For the Cubs, it was RHP Cade Horton who benefited from this get-right spot with 6.1 scoreless innings, while RHP Ryan Pressley got tagged for a tater in the ninth inning of the 6-1 victory.
On deck is RHP Ben Brown, who was gobsmacked by Kansas City in Wrigley Field on Monday, giving up six “Ernies,” including a pair of round-trippers. That was the sixth time this season that the 25-year-old gave up six or more runs, and he spent a month in Triple-A prior to this most recent disaster.
Philadelphia selected the soon-to-be 26-year-old out of high school in the now-defunct 33rd round of the 2017 MLB Draft. Between a slow start, injuries and the pandemic shutdown for MiLB in 2020, he did not make it to Double-A until 2022, his first season with the Cubs. He has a nice fastball in the mid-90s that can reach 98 mph on occasion, and he adds an above-average curveball.
Luis Robert Jr. (groin/trade candidate) missed the last two games, and if the clock really has struck midnight on the Cinderella week for the White Sox (61 runs in the first seven games back from the All-Star Break), then Brown is a tournament wild card as an SP2 on DraftKings ($7,600) and Yahoo ($33). Your mileage may vary.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
Across his last five starts, the 28-year-old logged 25 innings, allowing 24 runs, six home runs, 15 walks and managing only 18 strikeouts. In this stretch, he had a 7.20 ERA, though technically he was unlucky with a 6.69 FIP. His 16.4% strikeout rate is a career low, well under his already-pedestrian 20.3% rate from last season. The final advanced metrics to compare are his 7.4% swinging-strikeout rate, with a career-worst 12.5% barrel rate. Yikes!
Look to the Minnesota batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate first, as Irvin ceded a .218 ISO in his last 683 righty-lefty matchups. Kody Clemens (.322 ISO, 164 PAs), Matt Wallner (.222 ISO, 184 PAs) and Trevor Larnach (.181 ISO, 311 PAs) are the trio to target, with switch-hitter Willi Castro a strong consideration if he is near the top of the order. Right-handed Harrison Bader is the punt du jour on DraftKings ($3,000) and FanDuel ($2,600) as it is unlikely Irvin can take advantage of the holes in his swing.
Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
While he was a key cog in the World Series run last year for the Dodgers, in 16 starts for Los Angeles last year and 17 for Boston this season, RHP Walker Buehler had the worst regular season stretch of his career. Across these 160.1 innings, the 30-year-old had a 5.56 ERA, a 5.61 FIP and a 4.93 xERA. Power was also an issue, with hitters combining for a .199 ISO in this timeframe.
Shohei Ohtani continues to play like an MVP, and Teoscar Hernandez and Freddie Freeman are solid wingmen. Former Red Sox great Mookie Betts has been in a tough slump at the plate against fellow righties all season, but he is likely to be batting leadoff. Catcher Will Smith is probably going to get the day off, though that just means a bump in the batting order for Andy Pages, who has been stellar this season, even outperforming Hernandez in righty-righty matchups.
Boston could be sellers at the deadline; however, the team is holding onto the last Wild Card slot, with New York and Seattle only one game ahead, though Texas, Tampa Bay and Cleveland are all within three games of the Red Sox. The main suspicion is that the team would be willing to trade Jarren Duran for the right price, helping alleviate the surplus of left-handed outfielders on the roster. The soon-to-be 29-year-old had two triples and a double last night, scoring one run and contributing a pair of RBIs.
Because the BoSox need wins, expectations are that they will play all of their regulars this afternoon in a dreamy matchup against RHP Dustin May. In his last start, May held the Minnesota Twins scoreless for 4.2 innings, though it took a season-high 100 pitches and he still fell short of qualifying for the victory. For the fifth time in his last seven games, May issued at least three walks, and his strikeout production continues to vary wildly.
In his last five starts, May suffered two multi-home run games and seven homers total, accompanied by seven doubles and a triple. That resulted in a 5.47 ERA, 6.13 FIP and a 5.81 xERA. Lefties Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Duran are the core four options, with slugger Alex Bregman, centerfielder Ceddanne Rafaela and switch-hitter Abraham Toro the second wave of stalwarts.
