MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Ohtani saw a major increase in his pitch count last Wednesday, going 80 in Anaheim against his original MLB team. In the three preceding appearances, he tallied 46, 51 and 54 pitches, though while the jump was sizable, it was also part of the “soft” plan for his overall progress. If the reigning and three-time MVP labors at all, expect manager Dave Roberts to get him out of the game quickly. The Dodgers are looking towards a World Series run, so having Ohtani healthy as a hitter is far more important than him as a possible multi-inning pitcher.
For tonight, something in the 75- to 80-pitch range or five innings of work is a reasonable target. Against the Angels, he struck out seven, and he racked up eight strikeouts on just 54 pitches against St. Louis two weeks ago. Los Angeles is favored by just over three runs tonight, leading to a -305 moneyline for the boys in blue to garner the victory. Keep in mind that Ohtani needs to close out the fifth inning as well as have the lead in order to be eligible for the win bonus. That is going to be key to unlocking his total points upside, though if he gets half a dozen or more strikeouts, he will at least come close to paying off his salary from a fantasy points-per-dollar perspective.
Last night the Reds were going against veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks, who is mostly an innings-eater at this point in his career. He was never one to provide a lot of strikeout upside, so for the last few seasons he has mostly been letting his defense do the heavy lifting.
That dichotomy in pitching styles and, of course, Kikuchi being a southpaw should give him a bit of an advantage the first time through the order as the Reds recalibrate.
The projected Cincinnati lineup has a 23.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season, with only three hitters being below league average. Kikuchi has slipped from a 27.8% combined strikeout rate last year to 24.1% this season, though that is still solid for a starting pitcher.
Other options tonight all have significant caveats, but at this point of the season, everyone should understand that baseball is a wildly variant sport, with great pitchers getting rocked out of nowhere by bad teams, and seemingly once every couple of years a hurler picked up from the scrap heap tosses a no-hitter.
RHP Collin Rea has been lucky this year with a 3.99 ERA that is not supported by his 4.75 xERA, 4.60 FIP and 4.48 xFIP. His 17.9% strikeout rate is his lowest since the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, and keep in mind he took a detour to the NPB before resigning with Milwaukee and then ultimately landing with the Cubs this year. It is worth noting that the temperatures for Wrigley Field will be in the low 70s tonight with a 12 to 15 mph breeze in from left field.
In Minnesota, RHP Bailey Ober is going against a power-laden A’s lineup that put up five runs (three unearned) last night against Joe Ryan, who is at least two levels above Ober. The now 30-year-old is having his worst campaign of his five in The Show, though his 5.15 ERA is worse than his 4.44 xERA but still well above his 3.76 ERA of his first four seasons in the league.
The last two viable options are RHP Noah Cameron against the visiting Texas Rangers. This has been a rough stretch for Texas, with the team stumbling and bumbling to a 2-10 record across the last dozen games. Only once in this stretch did the Rangers score more than three runs, which keeps Cameron in the mix as a SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo, along with being a tournament target on the blue site.
Finally, there is wild card RHP Hurston Waldrep against the Chicago White Sox. Over the last two games, Atlanta allowed 23 runs to the Pale Hose, with starters Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder ceding 15 runs, albeit on just two round-trippers. Waldrep is a top-5 prospect for Atlanta, though expectations are that he will potentially evolve into a shutdown closer if his success as a starter begins to wane. The 23-year-old has outperformed expectations thus far with a 1.02 ERA across three starts, spanning 17.2 innings. Outside of this matchup and the way the slate is shaping up, Waldrep would likely be an afterthought more often than not.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves
Once upon a time, LHP Martin Perez was a savvy pitcher to avoid stacking against, as he typically found his way to enough ground balls and double plays to avoid major implosions. However, the veteran of 14 MLB campaigns is now in his age-34 season, and walks have been a serious issue with 5.01 per nine innings, albeit in just 23.1 frames of work.
Perez is on a one-year, $5 million deal with Chicago, though he ended up on the injured list due to a strained flexor tendon from mid-April until last week. Expect something in the 60- to 70-pitch range before the game goes to the bullpen. Every reliever made an appearances over the last 48 hours, though none pitched in both games of the current series.
Focus on Ronald Acuna Jr., Jurickson Profar, Matt Olson and catcher Sean Murphy as the core four tonight. Michael Harris II has been on a heater over the last month against pitchers of either handedness, and Ozzie Albies is at least making contact again. On a fun note, Albies is 7-for-9 against Perez, with one double and two strikeouts.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels
The 35-year-old made his debut with Texas all the way back in 2014 after pitching for Fordham University and being selected in the 18th round of the 2011 MLB Draft. The baseball vagabond also had a four-year side trip in Japan, playing for two teams prior to reentering The Show with San Diego in 2022. Martinez has seen his strikeout rate dip from an anemic 20.4% combined rate last year to a putrid 17.1% this season. As with his power, his strikeout rate is pretty much the same against lefties or righties.
The Angels do offer up a hefty 28.4% strikeout rate, though five of the top six hitters also have a .200 ISO or higher this season against right-handed pitchers. Whichever catcher is behind the plate is worthy of considerations for DraftKings and Yahoo stacks, with the back of the order being skipped outside of the late slate since Christian Moore and Bryce Teodosio have little to offer in the way of DFS production.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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