MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
“Nasty Nestor” logged 80 and 93 pitches in his final two minor league rehabilitation appearances, followed by 76 and 79 pitches in his two games for the Padres. Though he fell an out shy of five innings in each of those efforts, he should clear that hurdle tonight. Matt Chapman landed on the injured list Friday, and Casey Schmitt is day-to-day after being hit by a pitch on his right forearm. This has the team counting on middle infielders Tyler Fitzgerald and Christian Koss, who are not exactly world beaters.
Cortes deploys a variety of release points and arm slots, relying on deception. While this does not result in a lot of strikeouts, he usually can induce enough weak contact to survive. If the veteran southpaw is able to navigate the likes of Rafael Devers, Heliot Ramos and Willy Adames at the top of the lineup, he should be able to play off his nominal salary tonight, which is particularly appealing for an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo.
RHP Brady Singer is a potential pivot at a similar salary to Cortes in Anaheim against a righty-leaning Angels lineup. Getting out of Great American Ballpark is a bonus for Singer, who has been solid with three quality starts in his last four outings. One other option, albeit a little riskier, is RHP Zac Gallen against a top-heavy Cleveland Guardians squad. The Chase Field roof is slated to be closed for this series, keeping out the brutal Arizona heat and allowing the humidor to provide maximum effect.
In two Denver starts, one in June and one last September, Yamamoto allowed only two runs with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings of action. Ideally, the now 27-year-old did not go too crazy yesterday celebrating his birthday, saving up his stamina for tonight’s matchup.
Yamamoto tends to mix in a variety of fastballs (four-seam, splitter, cutter and sinker) with less reliance on his curveball. That should allow his pitch portfolio to find continued success at altitude.
While it is folly to try and accurately assign the win bonus to a particular pitcher, it is worth noting that the Dodgers are nearly 3-to-1 favorites to garner the victory tonight, and Yamamoto usually closes out the fifth inning in most starts, enabling him to qualify as the pitcher of record for that point in the game.
This has been a rough patch of the season for RHP Spencer Strider, who was gobsmacked in his last four starts, ceding an 8.68 ERA, 7.67 FIP and 4.82 xFIP across 18.2 frames. He did have 18 strikeouts in this stretch, though the seven home runs and eight walks were uncharacteristic.
The matchups have not been easy with games in Kansas City and New York (Mets) and home efforts against Milwaukee and San Francisco. His velocity has been down this year, though it is still in the 95 to 96 mph range on his fastball. However, the days of him sitting in the 97 to 98 mph range with the ability to reach triple digits may be over.
Of course, going against the Chicago White Sox is a matchup that has the potential to cure all that ails struggling pitchers. The ChiSox have improved over the five weeks, though they are still one of the bottom offenses in the league by most traditional and advanced metrics; they are just not completely dreadful, which is important to note. Keep tabs on the weather, but it does not look like it should be overly concerning given the morning forecast.
In San Diego, LHP Robbie Ray is facing the Padres for a second consecutive start, having allowed four runs in six innings while striking out four in San Francisco on Tuesday. This has been another solid season for Ray, and he is very much in play. Manny Machado, Ramon Laureano, Xander Bogaerts and Jose Iglesias have had decent personal success, though this is only a minor tiebreaker and not truly actionable information.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Baltimore Orioles
The next most obvious option is Atlanta with the Braves playing host to RHP Yoendrys Gomez and the White Sox bullpen. Gomez is on his third team this season, having made the New York Yankees Opening Day roster as a reliever, though he ultimately was waived before the end of April. The Dodgers picked him up, but after three dismal outings, they also designated him for assignment. Four days later, Chicago came calling, and out of desperation, Gomez will be starting tonight. He has been stretched out for a full workload, so the only thing that will send him to the clubhouse early is ineffectiveness. Look to the top 6 in the lineup, which got a boost on Friday with the return of Ronald Acuna Jr. (calf).
In Boston, the beleaguered Baltimore offense gets a chance to make some noise against enigmatic RHP Dustin May. Injuries have limited May’s effectiveness and availability over the last several seasons, though he has been mostly healthy this season. He has his most innings pitched since 2019, and his 113.2 frames this year are more than what he put together over his last three campaigns combined. May came over from the Dodgers at the trade deadline in exchange for outfielders James Tibbs III, who was the 13th overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft, along with Zach Ehrhard, who was a fourth-rounder.
May has put together two nice outings for the Red Sox, though hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate can exploit him. That bodes well for the Batters of Birdland in switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman, plus promising youngsters Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser. Recently promoted Dylan Beavers is at the minimum salary on DraftKings ($2,000), making him the punt du jour if he is in the lineup.
Late Slate Target: Cincinnati Reds
Mederos has been a marginal prospect who has command issues and just can’t seem to stay out of his own way. To his credit, he has been better at limiting home runs this season, though he allows too many balls in play to survive in The Show against competent batsmen.
Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and youngster Noelvi Marte each have ample power against right-handed hurlers, with veteran Miguel Andujar in the mix if he continues to man the cleanup slot. Alternatives include leadoff man TJ Friedl (though he will be popular for gamers stacking Cincinnati) and journeyman Gavin Lux. The Halos have seen their bullpen get a lot of work since the All-Star Break, so this could be a spot where Mederos takes one for the team and gets maximum usage with his 80-ish pitch count.
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