MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
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MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Since the start of the 2022 season, RHP Logan Webb has made five appearances in Colorado. He never allowed more than four runs in these games, ceding only a trio of taters across 31.2 innings.
All told, he has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.042 WHIP, as his proclivity for inducing ground balls at a 57.4% rate for his career tends to keep him out of trouble in the thin Denver air.
The current Colorado roster has a scant .191/.203/.279 triple-slash line with three total extra-base hits against Webb.
Strikeouts have never really been part of the portfolio for Webb, though he does have a career-high 26.1% strikeout rate this season, well above his usual 20% to 22% range. The projected Rockies lineup has a 24.0% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, with six hitters worse than league average.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Webb has -125 odds on under 6.5 strikeouts and -145 for over 5.5, which aligns with his 6.1 projected strikeouts for tonight’s matchup.
Webb’s 1.21 WHIP is in the top 25, and his 3.16 ERA is top 20. Considering the state of the Colorado offense, he has an appropriate salary across the main DFS sites when also accounting for Coors Field variance. This is NOT a sneaky play, with Webb projecting to be the second-most popular option across the main DFS sites, though the top 5 are all clustered in the 20% to 25% projected tournament representation range.
Other options include uber-efficient RHP Bryan Woo, who leads the league with 14.38 pitches per inning. That is well above reigning American League Cy Young Award winner LHP Tarik Skubal (14.47) and National League leader LHP Cristopher Sanchez (14.57). Woo is tied with Sanchez and Webb in leading the league at 19 quality starts. On Wednesday, Woo failed to close out the sixth inning for the first time this season, falling one out shy against the San Diego Padres in Seattle.
Tonight Woo is in Tampa, where game-time temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 80s with elevated humidity at Steinbrenner Field. The Rays have been surging of late, winning six of their last eight games, scoring seven or more runs in five of the matchups.
In Houston, LHP Framber Valdez will be facing fellow southpaw Max Fried as the New York Yankees look to make some noise against the Astros. The Yankees have the best offense in the league against lefties, while the ‘Stros are just outside the top 5, though with Yordan Alvarez back in action, that is one more formidable bat in the lineup.
The 33-year-old is not particularly enthralling on FanDuel, as he had only one quality start to his credit in his last seven appearances. It is also important to note that while Lorenzen has seen an uptick in his strikeout production, with five or more in four of his last five games, he failed to close out the fifth inning in three of these efforts as he usually caps out around 83 to 87 pitches.
Tonight’s projected lineup for the Angels has a 26.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, though that is accompanied by a .185 ISO. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s at Kauffman Stadium tonight with a light 6 to 8 mph breeze in from left field.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Athletics
The 37-year-old is on the final season of a three-year, $55.8 million deal, and there is a good chance this is his swan song, unless he takes a route similar to Carlos Carrasco and Jose Quintana with a low-dollar, one-year deal to stick in the league next season. The “Lizard King” was a seventh-round selection in the 2009 MLB Draft, finally making it to The Show in 2012. By 2014 he had washed out of the league, electing to spend the next three years in Japan. In 2018, St. Louis came calling, and he has been with the Redbirds ever since.
Mikolas is mostly pitching to contact at this point, averaging 5.94 strikeouts per nine innings over his last 11 starts while posting a 6.11 ERA, 6.77 FIP and 4.88 xFIP. If he is not getting ground balls (40% to 45%) for his defense to scoop up, he tends to cede crooked numbers.
Look to the top of the order for the Athletics, with Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers and Lawrence Butler all bringing strong power numbers. Rookie masher Nick Kurtz is unlikely to play as he deals due to an oblique issue, which should elevate Butler back to the leadoff slot and keep JJ Bleday in the lineup as a differentiation play towards the bottom of the order.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: San Diego Padres
Wells was a late-bloomer, not making his MLB debut until 2021 after being selected from Minnesota in the Rule 5 draft. He has just 294.2 innings to his credit, serving as a starter in 46 of his last 51 games. On his best days, he is a mid-rotation starter, though on playoff-caliber teams he would most likely be a long reliever/spot starter.
Fernando Tatis Jr. was a late scratch last night due to a hamstring issue, and his availability is questionable for tonight. Jackson Merrill just returned from his third stint on the injury list this season, so if Tatis is a go, it would be the first time in a while we have seen the full Friars lineup. Former Orioles Many Machado, Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano are all in play, as are three-time batting champion Luis Arraez and slugging second baseman Jake Cronenworth. This team is one of the more malleable stacking groups, opening up nearly endless possibilities.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Willy Adames to hit a home run. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Historically, Adames has been better against fellow righties, though this season has seen him surge against southpaws. He has a .250 ISO in 154 plate appearances while collecting half of his 20 home runs against opposite-handed hurlers. Over the last two seasons, the former Milwaukee Brewer has a .209 ISO in 936 plates appearances in same-handed matchups, so he is still live for a round-tripper when the game is handed over to the Colorado bullpen.
