MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Miller has been on the injured list twice this season due to elbow inflammation caused by bone spurs which will require offseason surgery. He made four starts since missing around 10 weeks, recording 85, 81, 72 and 92 pitches. Expectations are that he will go five innings, with a sixth in play if he is efficient and not laboring tonight. The 27-year-old had 14 strikeouts in his most recent 21.1 frames while allowing seven home runs.
The projected lineup for the Angels has only light-hitting Luis Rengifo with a sub-24.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season. The collective expected lineup has a 25.6% strikeout rate, though that is accompanied by a .188 ISO.
This is clearly a “both-sideser” (h/t TMcB), with the Anaheim stacks crafted around Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and switch-hitter Yoan Moncada.
In San Diego, RHP Randy Vasquez gets a dream matchup against the hapless Colorado offense. To say Vasquez has been lucky is an understatement, with his 3.91 ERA far outperforming a 5.87 xERA. Vasquez gets by on smoke and mirrors, as his strikeout rate is down to a career-low 12.3% and he has a career-worst 11.6% barrel rate. This is his third season outperforming his advanced metrics, though it has never been by as wide a margin as this year.
He is the perfect pivot away from Miller at a very similar salary on DraftKings ($6,400) and a significant discount on Yahoo ($28), where he is barely above the site minimum for starting pitchers.
The 26-year-old looked like he was making the jump to being a consistent frontline starter, then the biscuit wheels fell off that gravy train. In his eight efforts prior to going on the IL, he suffered a 7.54 ERA, a 5.85 FIP and 4.94 xFIP. Particularly troublesome were the 20 walks in those 37 innings, which were exacerbated by the eight home runs. He still managed nearly a strikeout per inning, though this click is not for the faint of heart.
In Philadelphia, LHP Jesus Luzardo and the Phillies are facing a struggling Mets team that has lost five straight and eight of the last 11 games. Seven times in this stretch New York plated three or fewer runners, which is beyond abysmal considering the offensive talent assembled by the team.
Luzardo has the best strikeout rate (27.9%) on the slate, though the key Metropolitans, aside from Pete Alonso, all have had solid success against the southpaw.
In Cleveland, RHP Gavin Williams has a hefty salary, though he has back-to-back seven-inning performances, with one solo shot in each appearance being the only blemish. In his last four starts, he enjoyed plenty of luck with a 96.6% left-on-base rate buoying a 1.99 ERA, which is well ahead of his 4.51 FIP and 4.21 xFIP.
The Kansas City lineup projects to have six lefties, maximizing the platoon advantage for the Royals. This lineup has a 16.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which takes away some of Williams’ appeal.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
The 25-year-old is closing in on his career-high 89.2 innings, and while he has made two of his first three big league outings at Coors Field, there have not been many bright spots. Most projection systems view him as a low-leverage bullpen arm who should be able to carve out a handful of seasons in The Show. Of course, that forecast should not dissuade anyone from picking on him tonight with the Padres.
Jose Iglesias is not particularly appealing given his inability to get the ball out of the infield and dreadful .221 wOBA. The rest of the Friars look frisky, which gives gamers a myriad of ways to craft full stacks as well as using this team for one-offs. Jake Cronenworth is the best differentiation option, tucked at the bottom of the lineup card despite ample power upside when holding the platoon advantage.
Feel free to mix and match everyone else while looking to maximize differentiation and the salary cap.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: New York Yankees
Gipson-Long was a sixth-round selection for the Minnesota Twins in the 2019 MLB Draft, being traded to Detroit at the 2022 deadline for RHP Michael Fulmer. The now 27-year-old barely registers on the prospect scale, profiling as an NPC-type character in MLB The Show. That is not a desirable archetype to take into Yankee Stadium, so be sure to get a few Bronx Bombers in your player portfolio tonight.
New York has a loaded offense, with Anthony Volpe and catcher Austin Wells the “weak links” despite both having elite power in lefty-righty matchups. The top 6 in the order are All-Stars, Home Run Derby participants and young Ben Rice, who may end up checking both boxes in the next couple of years. Similar to the San Diego assessment, anyone and everyone in pinstripes is in play tonight.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Perez continues to have solid power in same-handed matchups, with a .234 ISO this year in 439 such plate appearances. RHP Gavin Williams has ceded a .164 ISO across the last 474 right-handed hitters to face him, recording an even 14-14 split on his 28 home runs since the start of last year.
