MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Cease, Giolito, Bubic, Gore and MORE! (July 9)

Wednesday keeps the week moving along with an 11-game featured slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As we dig around for the MLB DFS picks for today, leaning on Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the best way to find value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using smart, +ROI tools is vital.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Atlanta Braves and Athletics stand out in West Sacramento, while the Boston Red Sox are matched up against another terrible starting pitcher. There are four great pitching options to choose from tonight: Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Kris Bubic and MacKenzie Gore.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

Giolito has had a mercurial career arc, having been a first-round selection of the Washington Nationals in the 2012 MLB Draft straight out of high school. He worked his way up through the minors, making his MLB debut in 2016, where he was lit up for 18 runs in 21.1 innings, along with seven round-trippers. Still, he was a top prospect when the Nats traded him, plus pitchers Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning, to the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton. In 2018 as a full-time starter for the ChiSox, Giolito allowed the most walks and earned runs in the league.

Things turned around in 2019 with Giolito making the All-Star team, and in 2020 he had a no-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Giolito finished in the top 11 of the Cy Young voting in each of the three seasons from 2019 to 2021. He started declining in 2022 then hit rock bottom for a second time in 2023, leading the league in home runs (41) while playing for three different teams. Last year he was out with an elbow injury, which required surgery, and that brings us up to the present day.

Previously, we have stacked against Giolito, and we likely will again this season since he allowed six-plus runs in three of his 12 starts. In his last five outings, he allowed seven runs, with four being unearned, while notching 31 strikeouts in those 32.2 innings. Pick any offensive category and you will likely find the Rockies in the bottom 3. This can be against lefties or righties, at home or on the road, power, strikeouts, walks, stolen bases, and even errors and double plays; the team is truly that bad.

Pittsburgh has been the worst team in the league against lefties, with a 68 wRC+ that is just below the Rockies (69 wRC+). The Bucs are also second with a 27.1% strikeout rate against southpaws and have a bottom-4 .115 ISO. Five hitters in the projected lineup strike out at an above-league-average rate, making it easy to see why Bubic is so appealing, especially with the Royals nearly 2-to-1 favorites to garner the victory in Kansas City tonight.

Gore is having a breakout season, and his 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings rate trail only Zach Wheeler and Tarik Skubal, who are at 11.5 per nine. For perspective, in his first 75 appearances prior to this season, Gore already had an excellent 9.8 per-nine rate. He has also cut down his walks and home runs, turning into a true ace.

The projected lineup for the Cardinals has four hitters who strike out above league average against left-handed hurlers, with only Willson Contreras (.234 ISO) having any kind of pop and nobody else in the projected lineup producing more than a .130 ISO against lefties this season.

Turning our attention to RHP Dylan Cease, while he has scuffled somewhat this season, it is more due to bad luck and tougher matchups. His fastball is averaging around 97 mph, which is a tick higher than each of the last two full seasons, and he ranks fifth in the league with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

While the 29-year-old has a rough (for someone of his caliber) 4.62 ERA, we can see that he truly has been unlucky with a 3.52 xERA, 3.40 FIP and 3.38 xFIP. Cease allowed a pair of home runs in each of his last two starts, though they were in Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Four starts ago, he had his worst outing of the season, allowing six earned runs in five innings. Of course, that game was in Dodger Stadium and Cease also had nine strikeouts.

Arizona has been struggling to find a rhythm, losing nine of the last 13 games. Corbin Carroll (wrist) is back, though Pavin Smith, utilityman Ildemaro Vargas and catcher Gabriel Moreno are out, and Ketel Marte has been dealing with a sore groin.

Currently, Cease is projected to be the third-most popular pitcher on DraftKings (27.4%), the second on Yahoo (47.3%) and the most represented in tournaments on FanDuel (18.7%).

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves

Last night it was the Athletics who had all the fun, putting up 10 runs, while LHP Jeffrey Springs ceded a solo shot to Eli White for Atlanta’s only run of the game. Tonight it will be RHP Mitch Spence on the mound for the A’s, which bodes well for the Braves since he just allowed a trio of taters in Tampa while also having an unsightly 5.65 ERA at Sutter Health Park.

Ronald Acuna Jr. was a late scratch, dealing with a sore lower back, and he is currently considered day-to-day. Even if he is out, this is still a strong lineup, particularly now that Jurickson Profar has completed his 81-game suspension. Expect Drake Baldwin to be behind the plate, making him a tremendous target on Yahoo and DraftKings to fill the catcher slot.

Matt Olson is always in play, and in a fun note, he has now played one more game (576) with Atlanta than he had during his time on the Athletics. Olson, Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna are great options to round out full stacks, once again just showing how deep this lineup is when everyone is available.

In turn, the Athletics are a good team to stack taking on RHP Bryce Elder. This is the fourth season in The Show for Elder, who has not made good on his mid-tier prospect ranking. Walks continue to be an issue, with Elder handing out three or more free passes in six of his 14 (43%) starts. He also is allowing a career-high 1.97 home runs per nine innings, and his 8.0% swinging-strike rate is lower than his 10.7% barrel rate, making him very exploitable to hitters with power from either side of the plate.

Lawrence Butler led off the game with an inside-the-park home run, setting the tone for the pending implosion of rookie RHP Didier Fuentes, who lasted one inning, giving up eight runs and three longballs. Butler had a second home run in the third inning, with his teammates adding three more throughout the game. Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom and Max Muncy all have more than enough pop to make things difficult for Elder, giving us ample stacking options from both sides of this matchup.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for this sample MLB DFS slate:

Main Slate Alternative Target: Boston Red Sox

The BoSox put up 19 runs in the first two games of this series as the Rockies seemingly brought Coors Field along with them. Senzatela has been dreadful on the road, recording a 6.32 ERA in 37 innings, with more walks (17) than strikeouts (15).

Expect Jarren Duran to return to the leadoff role now that he has the platoon advantage. Fellow lefty Wilyer Abreu should also be in a prominent slot, and rookie Roman Anthony will likely be near the top of the lineup card as well. Marcelo Mayer is the punt du jour on DraftKings ($2,900) and FanDuel ($2,600), while Carlos Narvaez is another potential backstop play on DraftKings and Yahoo.

Switch-hitter Abraham Toro, red-hot Ceddanne Rafaela and former Colorado superstar Trevor Story can be used to finish off full stacks. Keep in mind that the Rockies also have one of the worst bullpens in the league, so there is nobody coming in to save the day once Senzatela is sent to the clubhouse.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Bryan Reynolds under 0.5 total hits. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Reynolds does his best work from the right side of the plate, though LHP Kris Bubic is a frontline starter who has had dominant moments this season, holding opposite-handed batsmen to a .111 ISO and a .280 wOBA, accompanied by a 26.5% strikeout rate. Reynolds does have hits in 48 of his 87 (55%) games, so getting this line north of +150 is crucial to maintain a positive expected ROI%.