MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The Mariners do have a three-game lead for the final wild card slot over Kansas City, with Texas and Cleveland 3.5 and four games back. Seattle trails Houston by three games for the American League West, so the final month of the season will be filled with important matchups.
In his 13 games since being shelved for nearly two months with a forearm strain, Gilbert has averaged 86.8 pitches. He has completed the sixth inning in four of his last half dozen starts and it is reasonable to project something in the low-90s for a pitch count and five or six innings if he is not laboring tonight.
The back of the Cleveland lineup is where Gilbert needs to make his hay, against Bo Naylor (26.9% strikeout rate in 264 plate appearances versus right-handed hurlers this season), Gabriel Arias (31.9%, 279 PAs), youngster CJ Kayfus (29.3%, 58 PAs) and scuffling Nolan Jones (25.3%, 281 PAs).
The top of the order is strong, with leadoff man Steven Kwan and switch-hitter Jose Ramirez two of the best in the game, augmented by Kyle Manzardo and Daniel Schneemann who both perform well with the platoon-advantage.
This season has been one one filled with strikeouts for Gilbert, with a career-high 34.7% combined rate and resulting in 12.72 whiffs per nine innings. That would be a full strikeout ahead of the pack, if Gilbert had enough innings to qualify.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Gilbert has a -110 line on over 6.5 strikeouts, which is behind only the -120 of RHP Tyler Glasnow for over 6.5 strikeouts. No other pitcher has a neutral threshold above 5.5 strikeouts for Saturday’s slate.
Glasnow is an option in Los Angeles, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, though it is important to note that he has logged more than 86 pitches just twice (91 and 101) in his last five starts. He gets to face a trio of windmills in Adrian Castillo (35.0%, 80 PAs), Blaze Alexander (34.6%, 104 PAs) and Alek Thomas (27.6%, 326 PAs), with the ever dangerous Corbin Carroll (25.2%, 365 PAs) striking out at an above league average rate in lefty-righty matchups.
The third top shelf option is RHP Nick Pivetta in Minnesota, against a watered down Twins squad. The Twinkies still profile solidly against right-handed pitching, though we can see by the 3.8 implied team total, San Diego being -175 money line favorites to garner the victory and a 6-to-9 mph breeze in from center field, things are positive across the board for Pivetta.
The “best” option is RHP Spencer Arrighetti, at home against the Angels. Los Angeles will be putting out a mostly right-handed lineup, with only switch-hitters Yoan Moncada and Luis Rengifo holding the platoon-advantage. There is a chance that lefty Niko Kavadas is at first base, filling in for the injured Nolan Schanuel, though he has only a .260 wOBA and a .116 ISO, with a 39.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers across 107 career plate appearances in The Show.
Last year, Arrighetti was a solid source of strikeout production with a 29.3% rate against lefties and a 24.2% rate versus fellow righties. Tonight will be his fifth start since missing four months with a broken thumb. He has 10 walks in his 19.1 innings, though he did not issue any free passes last Sunday during his 5.2 frames in Baltimore.
This play is not for the faint of heart, though the salary is appropriate for the risk-reward proposition. In Chicago, RHP Cam Schlittler is facing the White Sox, who have a 3.7 implied team total. New York is -220 favorites to win tonight, which would help Schlittler get some bonus points if he can close out the fifth inning while holding lead. He is $8,500 on DraftKings, which is 37% more than Arrighetti and his $42 salary on Yahoo only a dollar less than Glasnow ($43) and seven fewer than Gilbert ($49).
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Colorado Rockies
Rookie RHP McCade Brown will be making his second career start, with injuries in college and after being selected in the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft slowing his career trajectory. Pretty much anyone in a Cubs uniform tonight is a desirable target.
The Rockies will be facing RHP Javier Assad, who has a decent 44.8% groundball rate since the start of last year, though it comes with a fair amount of power to hitters swinging the stick from either side of the plate. Assad missed most of the season with an oblique injury, with tonight being his fourth start of the year. The 27-year-old has outperformed his advanced metrics for his entire career, though Coors Field has a way of exposing those types of pitchers.
Focus on the Rockies with power, including Mickey Moniak, Jordan Beck, Hunter Goodman and Ezequile Tovar. Warming Bernabel has been sun running with his luck as a hitter, but as noted baseball philosopher once said “Respect the streak, because they don’t happen very often.” Colorado projects to make up around 5% of all stacks in the large field tournaments tonight, which is less than one-third of the popularity landing with the Cubs and half of what is being bestowed to the Texas Rangers.
Main Slate Tertiary Target: San Diego Padres
Rowdy Tellez should be in the lineup, making him a discount dandy, though at the cost of the first base slot on DraftKings and Yahoo. Josh Smith is cheap across the DFS sites, with rookie Wyatt Langford and veteran Adolis Garcia also being cap friendly clicks. Catcher Kyle Higashioka and Joc Pederson are fine for the late-slate, though there are countless better options for the full-slate.
San Diego has a favorable matchup in Minnesota, taking on former Tampa Bay starter RHP Taj Bradley. The Rays dealt Bradley to the Twins for reliever Griffin Jax, with Minnesota happy to see of Bradley can find his way back to being an effective pitcher. In his last two starts in The Show, one for Tampa and one last Sunday for the Twins, Bradley was rocked by the Chicago White Sox for 13 runs (two unearned) in just 6.2 innings, handing out four walks and suffering two round-trippers. During his time in Triple-A between these starts, Bradley was not much better, considering in 2023 he was the second-ranked prospect in the Tampa system and inside the top-40 on most industry sheets.
Last year, the 24-year-old at least flashed strikeout upside, with a 26.5% combined rate. This year that has slipped to 19.4%, with left-handed power also giving him fits. Ryan O’Hearn, Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth are going to be underrepresented in tournaments and this trio had plenty of thump. Bradley is far from impervious to same-handed batsmen, so Manny Machado, Ramon Laureano and of course Fernando Tatis Jr. are all strong stacking components.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Elly De La Cruz to send one into the stands tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
This season, De La Cruz has an elite .210 ISO when swinging the stick from the left side of the plate, while RHP Michael McGreevy has allowed a .200 ISO to 122 opposite-handed hitters. Across the last two years, De La Cruz has knocked 33 of his 44 home runs off of right-handed hurlers.
