MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
In Seattle, RHP George Kirby will be toeing the rubber for the Mariners, with a tricky matchup versus the power-laden Athletics. The 27-year-old missed the first two months of the season with a shoulder issue, though he has answered the bell every time through the rotation since then.
This will be the first time the A’s have gotten a crack at Kirby this year and of course their left-handed power is Kirby’s potential kryptonite. Across his last 10 starts, the right-handed hurler has ceded only a trio of taters, while striking out 61 in 59 innings, for a 3.20 ERA, 2.57 FIP and 3.17 xFIP.
Rookie Nick Kurtz (.401 ISO, 260 plate appearances), Tyler Soderstrom (.239 ISO, 404 PAs), Lawrence Butler (.182 ISO, 413 PAs) and situational outfielder JJ Bleday (.166 ISO, 220 PAs) are the main hurdles for Kirby to clear.
Turning our attention to the matchup in Milwaukee, Webb has been a groundball maestro again this season, with a tremendous 26.3% combined strikeout rate, which is significantly higher than his 20.4% rate last year. Of course the Brew Crew has been transcendent as they have the best record in baseball, besting the Detroit Tigers by 4.5 games, while scoring the second-most runs in the league, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by five.
If anyone can quell the Brewers, it is Webb, though his fantasy points per dollar may not be enough to be a significant difference maker in DFS tournaments.
“Fastball Freddy” has a similar 26.2% strikeout rate this season, though that is much closer to his career baseline and not an outlier. The projected lineup for the Giants has a 24.6% strikeout rate, which along with the homefield advantage gives Peralta a touch more appeal than Webb. The 29-year-old will need to avoid flyball power, which means Rafael Devers (.235 ISO, 382 PAs) inconsistent Casey Schmitt (.187 ISO, 149 PAs) and former teammate Willy Adames (.181 ISO, 400 PAs).
On Sunday, Kremer held the Astros in check with seven scoreless innings, accompanied by seven strikeouts and just four baserunners in Houston. Things could get spicy tonight as the ‘Stros have piled up 17 runs in the first two games of this series. Houston topped two runs only once in the preceding six games, though the team has been picking up traction with the additions of Jesus Sanchez and Carlos Correa.
Kremer is a better real life pitcher than a fantasy producer, mostly because of inconsistent strikeout production. He has outperformed his expected run prevention metrics each of the last four seasons, though his strikeout rate this year is the second-lowest of his career. Caveat Emptor.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Chicago Cubs
Against a lineup as deep and formidable as Chicago’s, Mederos is likely to look like he is throwing batting practice tonight. Kyle Tucker has been playing through a small fracture that occurred to his right ring finger on a slide back on June 1. Tucker did hit a home run last night, though that was his first in August and he had only one round-tripper in July. Since his injury, he has a .232/.348/.373 triple-slash line, accompanied by only 18 extra-base hits in his 273 plate appearances in 65 games. Skipping Tucker in Chicago stacks will not feel great, but it is a tremendous way to gain differentiation from the rest of the field.
Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch and switch-hitter Ian Happ are strong foundational building blocks for any stack type. Catcher Carson Kelly is one of the best backstop options on DraftKings and Yahoo as he profiles well against Mederos.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Chicago White Sox
The 24-year-old has spent the last six starts in the minors, making three appearances for each franchise in Triple-A. In 32.1 combined innings, he performed well with a 2.23 ERA and only a .156 batting average against, with 37 strikeouts and just seven extra-base hits. Unfortunately, he has the makings of a “Four-A” pitcher, meaning that he is too good to keep in the minors, but does not make much headway against big leaguers.
Chicago provides excellent salary savings on DraftKings, with journeyman Mike Tauchman ($3,200) intriguing if he is in the leadoff slot, with catcher Kyle Teel ($3,900) likely in the three-hole and former Dodger prospect Miguel Vargas ($3,900) slotting in the top half of the lineup as well.
On Yahoo, Lenyn Sosa, Colston Montgomery and Luis Robert Jr. are essentially the same price as the aforementioned trio, giving them more appeal on the “secret” site. These are the six hitters to mix and match, with duos and trios being a reasonable approach, in addition to full-stacks. Robert already has a career-high 32 stolen bases, including one last night. Of course he has tailed off with that being his only theft in the last dozen games, but it is another way he can add fantasy points.
Looking to the Twins, Kody Clemens, Trevor Larnach and catcher Ryan Jeffers are the trio to target from a fantasy point per dollar perspective, with each being underpriced compared to their counterparts at the position. The same holds true on DraftKings, with Matt Wallner also joining the crew. Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall are appropriately the bucks-deluxe duo, though the point of these two teams is that they are value stacks.
Matin has had much improved control this season, though it has come at the expense of his strikeout rate as he has prioritized inducing groundballs. While he has a sterling 3.94 ERA in a career-high 107.1 innings, his 5.52 xERA, 4.64 FIP and 4.48 xFIP tell a different story. Both bullpens have been getting a lot of work over the last fortnight, so there is no real worry of any cavalry coming to the rescue once the starters hit the clubhouse.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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