MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 14
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Bibee has seen a dramatic dip in his strikeout rate, which has fallen from a stellar 26.0% last year to a substandard 19.9% this season. The M’s projected lineup has a 21.8% strikeout rate this year against right-handed hurlers, though that jumps to 25.7% when expanding the data set to the start of last year.
Kirby got a full breakdown in last Sunday’s article, where Your Ol’ Pal recommended stacking the Los Angeles Angels against him. Naturally he put up a career-high 14 strikeouts, which is also the highwater mark in the league this season. Strikeouts are not a major part of his profile, but if he is shaking off the rust from his injury layoff, that will be a boost to the Seattle faithful hoping that this year the team can make some noise in the playoffs. The Guardians have five players in the projected lineup that strike out 25% or higher against right-handed pitching, though they also have six left-handed hitters, which is a weak spot for Kirby.
This is a long way of setting the stage on why LHP Carlos Rodon looks like the “safest” option, though it is never fun to attack the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Rodon’s calling card is strikeouts and he is recording a tick shy of 11 per nine innings this season, with his 30.9% strikeout rate well above his 27.1% from last year. Boston boasts a mostly right-handed lineup, though Rafael Devers is one of the best in the game in lefty-lefty matchups. The BoSox who have power also strike out well above league average and the few that do not, such as switch-hitter Abraham Toro and youngster Kristian Campbell have almost no power.
In prior years, we would be lauding RHP Spencer Strider against an epically bad Colorado offense, but the budding superstar is not yet back to full health. He is certainly in play for tournaments, though far from the safest option at his salary.
In Texas, RHP Jacob deGrom will be going against the second worst offense in the league. The White Sox have topped four runs only three times in their last 14 games, with Chicago plating a measly 3.35 runs per game in this timeframe.
It has been a long recovery from his various maladies and while deGrom has been inconsistent with his strikeout production, he does have seven or more in six of his 13 starts. He also has three or fewer in a trio of tilts, including no strikeouts three starts ago against Toronto, despite logging 5.1 innings.
Chicago has struck out 22.8% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, which is the seventh-most in the league. They also have a nearly invisible .115 ISO, ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates (.113 ISO), while being slightly better than the Rockies (76 wRC+) at creating runs with an 80 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: San Diego Padres
Why yes, San Diego was the recommended late-slate contrarian stack and the Padres disappointed with one lonely run against RHP Ryne Nelson, with one extra-base hit. The thesis for going against Gallen, is that he has allowed four home runs in his last two starts, along with seven runs, though two were unearned. These were games in Atlanta and Cincinnati, which are more hitting friendly than Chase Field, with the roof closed and the humidor in effect.
Gallen has scuffled over his last six games, with eight home runs and 15 walks in 35 frames, with a scant 6.69 strikeouts per nine innings. This has worked out to a 6.17 ERA, with a 5.93 FIP and 4.58 xFIP. Opposing hitters have been finding success against his knuckle-curve, so it could no longer be fooling batters or it could just be variance.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts all have had personal success against Gallen and while that is not a driving factor, it is good to see that the foundational pieces for San Diego stacks have been solid in this matchup before. Gavin Sheets and Jackson Merrill are more intriguing that Bogaerts, though at other positions. Three-time batting champion Luis Arraez is always in the mix, with his lack of power offset by usually putting the ball in play.
Early Slate Contrarian Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Texas gets a good matchup against RHP Mike Vasil and the White Sox bullpen in Arlington, with the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles poised to trade haymakers in Camden Yards. These many options, plus Bryce Harper being on the injured list, are contributing to less gamers looking at the Phillies in the band box also known as Citizens Bank Park.
The Blue Jays will be running out RHP Bowden Francis, who has a dreadful 2.83 home runs and 3.58 walks per nine innings this season. This has resulted in a 6.12 ERA, which is supported by his 5.79 xERA, 6.90 FIP and 4.92 xFIP. Lefties have gotten him for a .346 ISO this season, with same-handed batsmen also producing, with a .179 ISO over the last two seasons. Francis has a barrel rate (11.9%) that is higher than his swinging strike rate (9.9%), which is nuts.
Kyle Schwarber is all but preordained for a home run today, with Max Kepler also profiling well. The longtime Minnesota Twin has had a resurgent season in his first year with Philadelphia, enjoying the protection of a loaded lineup. Trea Turner, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos are the other foundational plays and even struggling catcher J.T. Realmuto is in play on DraftKings and Yahoo, to take care of the pesky backstop requirement.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
If you’re serious about winning in MLB DFS, you already know the formula: leverage data, trust the process, and scale with the right tools. The same philosophy applies to sports betting — and that’s exactly where Portfolio EV comes in.
Take a bet like Brady Singer under 4.5 total strikeouts. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does.
This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.
Singer is not much of a strikeout threat, which is baked into the lower threshold. His strikeout rate of 19.2% has slipped from last year’s 22.2%, which was already low. The 28-year-old also has a career high 3.8 walks per nine innings rate and a career-low 34.1% groundball rate. The former Kansas City Royal has struck out five or more hitters in four of his 13 starts, landing on four three other times. Detroit is an above average offense, so getting this wager at +115 today is a bonus.
