MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Minnesota has a mercurial offense, putting up crooked numbers in bunches then disappearing for days at a time. Over the last 30 days, the Twins ranked 18th in the league with 4.1 runs per game. In six of their tilts during this span, they pushed two or fewer runners across the plate, and in six other matchups they scored six-plus runs.
Yamamoto had his worst outing of the season two starts ago, lasting only two outs in Milwaukee, allowing five runs and striking out zero Brewers. In his three other appearances over the last month, he was otherwise stellar, blanking the Giants for seven innings in San Francisco, holding the Chicago White Sox to one lonely run across seven innings at Chavez Ravine and shutting out the Rockies for five frames in Coors Field. Yes, Colorado and Chicago are dreadful offenses, but the soon-to-be 27-year-old frontline starter did exactly what aces should do and took care of business.
The most notable improvement in his production, aside from being healthy, is a career-low 5.2% walk rate with a serviceable 23.2% strikeout rate. The forecast for Wrigley field has an 8 to 12 mph crosswind from first base to third base, which should not be too dramatically impactful on the game. Last night, even with the wind blowing in, Kansas City cruised to a 12-4 victory and the teams combined for half a dozen round-trippers. Sometimes baseball is just going to baseball, despite the weather conditions.
The Royals have been around league average with a 22.3% strikeout rate against southpaws this season, though their .131 ISO is in the bottom third, as is their 90 wRC+. Jonathan India is a serviceable leadoff hitter with the platoon advantage, and, of course, Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia are terrific.
Vinnie Pasquantino and prospect Jac Caglianone have power, but there are exploitable holes in their swing against fellow southpaws, and noted lefty-masher Sal Perez has looked every bit of a 36-year-old catcher with a million miles on his body, struggling to even make contact, let alone get generate consistent power.
Then there is the back of the lineup with Nick Loftin, Freddy Fermin and 27-year-old “rookie” Tyler Tolbert, who finally made The Show after being drafted in the 13th round back in 2019.
For those not willing to entrust their hard-earned dollars with Boyd, there are two fine options in the Pacific Northwest tonight as RHPs Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Gilbert square off in Seattle.
Since returning from a forearm issue, the Mariners have been careful with Gilbert, placing what seems to be an unofficial soft cap on his pitch count in the 90 to 95 range. In his six appearances since missing almost two months, he had pitch counts of 84, 90, 84, 95, 88 and 94. This was also illustrated in his innings, which were 5.0, 5.0, 5.1, 4.2, 5.1 and 5.1 with the corresponding workloads in chronological order. Efficiency has gotten him 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings in this stretch, though the team has put up enough runs for only one victory being credited to Gilbert.
Milwaukee is running thin with both Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick landing on the injured list since the Mid-Summer Classic, joining Rhys Hoskins and Garrett Mitchell. That is half the starting lineup, which has really thinned out the depth of the Brew Crew. The remaining players have definitely answered the call, sweeping the Dodgers on either side of the All-Star Break, and the 11-game winning streak is impressive, though unsustainable.
Misiorowski was a late add to the All-Star Game, despite the rookie having only five career starts. He is the top pitching prospect in the Milwaukee system, and he ranks in the top 25 for most industry lists. His strikeout stuff is impressive, including 12 against the Dodgers and eight against the Pittsburgh Pirates, recording 33 total in his 25.2 innings. Overall, the projected Seattle lineup does a decent job of limiting strikeouts, though Randy Arozarena (28.1%, 317 plate appearances), Luke Raley (27.1%, 140 PAs) and Ben Williamson (24.3%, 181 PAs) are all well above league average.
Last, but far from least, RHP Jacob deGrom will be in Texas tonight facing the Athletics, who are not the same offense on the road as they are in West Sacramento. Though he ceded four home runs in his last three games, the 37-year-old continues to be effective, with seven total runs in these 17 innings (3.71 ERA), accompanied by a solid 19 strikeouts. The Rangers are -230 moneyline favorites tonight, with the A’s holding a 3.1 implied run total and running out RHP J.T. Ginn on the mound.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Chicago Cubs
In Chicago, LHP Rich Hill is expected to start for the Kansas City Royals, which will be his 14th MLB team and mark his 21st season after it all began with the Cubs back in 2005. Hill will tie Edwin Jackson, who also played for 14 teams, which is just wild to think about. Hill was with Boston four different times, and he also was in the minors with Washington and St. Louis, though he never appeared with those clubs in The Show.
The 45-year-old worked his way up to 104 pitches with the Omaha Storm Chasers in Triple-A, and his last start was a two-inning tune-up of 31 pitches on Saturday, closing out two innings on just seven batters. Hill had four relief outings spanning 3.2 innings last year with Boston, and he had 27 combined starts in 2023 for Pittsburgh and San Diego. He logged five-plus innings in most of his 22 starts for the Pirates, though the Padres leaned on him more as a multi-inning opener (five games) and then a reliever (five games).
While this is a fun story, it is hard to see Hill being effective against one of the best offenses in the league. Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong are uber-elite in lefty-lefty matchups, with Seiya Suzuki and catcher Carson Kelly crushing this season when they have the platoon advantage. Kelly is only $3,800 on DraftKings and $10 on Yahoo, making him a strong play as he is expected to hit in the cleanup slot. Depending on your DFS site of choice, leadoff man Nico Hoerner, switch-hitter Ian Happ and shortstop Dansby Swanson also can provide salary relief.
Late Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Shoulder issues limited him to just 50 innings and 10 starts last year, and while he has been healthy thus far, the overall results have still been dreadful. Across his 26 starts for the D-Backs, the 32-year-old has a decent 9.46 strikeouts per nine innings, though the 1.66 home runs per nine and 5.59 ERA in this stretch make the southpaw someone to pick on.
Half of the Houston starting hitters and most of the projected Opening Day rotation are out with injuries, but those that remain can hold their own against southpaws. Cam Smith, Yainer Diaz and diminutive veteran Jose Altuve continue to flash power, with part-timers Mauricio Dubon, Chas McCormick and Cooper Hummel showing success against lefties as well. Former Arizona stalwart Christian Walker has not had much power production with the platoon advantage over the last two seasons, but he is still a viable option on the late slate against Rodriguez. The ‘Stros look particularly enticing on DraftKings for the featured slate, where the preferred hitters fit nicely with the Cardinals in Coors Field.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Erick Fedde to record fewer than 3.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.
He never had much of a fastball or strikeout stuff, and the league has caught up to his revised sweeper and unique split-finger changeup. Breaking balls to not have the same movement and shape in the thin Denver air, which further works against Fedde. The 32-year-old has almost as many walks (46) as strikeouts (58) in his 98.2 innings across 19 starts, and he also has allowed 22 stolen bases, which is the second most in the league. The cherry on top of the statistical sundae is that Fedde has only one strikeout in his last three starts (11 innings).
