MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 6
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The Giants just signed Dominic Smith to a one-year deal, becoming his fifth team in the last three seasons. Expect him to be in the lineup against right-handed hurlers now that LaMonte Wade was designated for assignment this week, along with catcher Sam Huff. Outfielder Luis Matos and utilityman Christian Koss also were sent back to the minors. Jerar Encarnacion is off the injured list, so he is likely the right-handed half of a platoon with Smith.
Mike Yastrzemski got a day off in the hopes of getting him out of his slump, but he is expected to play tonight. The Giants are a pesky lineup but more suited to go against southpaws, with an abundance of right-handed batsmen. Daniel Johnson will likely be in the lineup as well as one of the few lefties off the bench, but the 29-year-old has played in only three games over the last two seasons and has just 103 plate appearances in 38 games for his career, despite debuting in the 2020 pandemic-shortened season.
Schwellenbach just needs to mitigate veterans Matt Chapman and Willy Adames while neutralizing Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee, with the latter being the only lefty. Over the last season-plus, Schwellenbach has a 29% strikeout rate against same-handed hitters, which bodes well for him in this matchup.
Since becoming a full-time starter in 2023 for San Diego, the longtime bullpen arm for the New York Mets has been more about run prevention than strikeouts. This year he is down to a career-low 6.75 per nine innings, which is one below last year and two below his lone campaign with the Padres.
The White Sox are the second-worst offense in the league against right-handed pitchers, with an 82 wRC+, but that is still above the awful Colorado Rockies, who are full standard deviation away at a 68 wRC+ that indicates they create runs 32% below league average and 14% worse than the ChiSox.
For those not enthralled by Lugo, there are other paths, including RHP Kodai Senga in Coors Field tonight. Oh, what a time to be alive when recommending opposing pitchers in Denver without a hint of irony. The salary algorithms recognize this as well and give Senga a hefty cap hit on DraftKings ($9,000), FanDuel ($10,600) and Yahoo ($52).
In Detroit, reigning American League Cy Young Award winner LHP Tarik Skubal is going against the stout Chicago Cubs, which is a bit of an immovable object versus an irresistible force situation. Other options include RHP Will Warren against a top-heavy Boston lineup in Yankee Stadium and RHP Bailey Ober in Minnesota against Toronto. The Blue Jays have a 17.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, and Ober has seen his own strikeout rate fall from 26.9% last year to just 18.6% this season, so keep that in mind.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Tonight the temperatures are going to be in the mid-80s at first pitch with a light breeze out to left field in West Sacramento at Sutter Health Park. It will be LHP JP Sears on the mound for the home team, and the 29-year-old struggled in his last four starts, three of which were away from this minor league park. In those 17.1 innings, he allowed 21 runs and eight home runs while striking out just 10. These games were against the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays and Giants, which are not exactly offensive powerhouses.
The Batters of Birdland have been less than impressive this season, and now injuries have taken away Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, Ramon Laureano and Gary Sanchez. That is a bonus for Ramon Urias, who should be the punt du jour tonight with a likely role as the Baltimore cleanup hitter. Jorge Mateo is another discount dandy who is always live for a jack and a bag when he is going against a lefty. This duo is the key to unlocking Mets stacks in Coors Field, so do not overlook them by any stretch of the imagination.
The Orioles won their last six games, sweeping the Chicago White Sox at Camden Yards and then taking out the Mariners in Seattle. Switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman and shortstop Gunnar Henderson had back-to-back home runs in the Pacific Northwest last night, and they are the priority pair in this matchup as well.
Rookie Coby Mayo is back up with the parent club, and he has a chance to stick this time due to all the injuries. He is the No. 2 prospect in the Baltimore system and ranks inside the top 50 on most industry sheets. He has shown great power in the minors, but in his 73 plate appearances in The Show, he had seven singles, six walks and a whopping 31 strikeouts.
Main Slate Tertiary Target: Seattle Mariners
Across his last 820 hitters faced, the 35-year-old had a woeful 5.98 strikeouts per nine innings and a hefty 1.52 home runs per nine. He also is allowing a lot of contact in addition to 2.89 walks per nine, which may not seem terrible, but it is well above the 1.84 per nine of the preceding five seasons. Hendricks never had much of a fastball, relying mostly on control and limiting power over his career. This year his “heater” is in the 85 to 87 mph range, which is like a right-handed Jamie Moyer.
Switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh currently leads the league with 24 home runs, and while he is likely to fall behind Aaron Judge (21) and Shohei Ohtani (23), he does have the third-best odds to win the title this season. Switch-hitter Jorge Polanco does his best work from the left side of the plate, likely protecting leadoff man J.P. Crawford, who is a contact maven.
Rowdy Tellez is the left-handed side of the platoon, replacing Luke Raley, and while the Angels do have a trio of southpaws in the bullpen, Brock Burke threw 32 pitches on Wednesday, while Sam Aldegheri tossed 49, so they may not throw tonight. Former starter Reid Detmers is the other lefty reliever, and he did not work in the last 72 hours.
Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena are reasonable options, though best suited for the late slate. This duo is also tied for the team lead, with each having swiped nine bags this year.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Warren projects for nearly six strikeouts tonight, which, of course, would end the hopes and dreams of those wagering on the under. That is why getting this bet in at +132 is key. Since the start of last year, Warren has a 28.5% strikeout rate, though the Red Sox have quite a few disciplined hitters. There are also a couple of wind machines in the BoSox lineup such as Kristian Campbell (28.3%, 166 plate appearances), Trevor Story (30.2%, 275 PAs) and Wilyer Abreu (26.7%, 576 PAs). In five of his last six starts, Warren has seven or more strikeouts, which again underscores the importance of getting these dreamy +132 odds.
