MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Across these 11.2 innings, Valdez had a 6.94 ERA, though his 3.97 FIP and 4.87 xFIP do show that he was somewhat unlucky, mostly due to a paltry four strikeouts. In his last 15 starts, totaling 97.2 frames, the superlative southpaw allowed just three home runs and 32 walks, easily countered by his 101 strikeouts. This resulted in a stellar 2.49 ERA, 2.55 FIP and 2.87 xFIP, even including the two most recent efforts.
The Orioles have had a rough go of things this year, and while the projected lineup has done a decent job of limiting strikeouts when facing lefties, the power is mostly nonexistent with Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo being the only fearsome hitters against southpaws. Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullin and Ramon Laureano were, of course, moved at the trade deadline, and Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Gary Sanchez, and Jorge Mateo remain out with injuries.
The depth has been thinned out so much that the O’s just signed outfielder Greg Allen off waivers after the 32-year-old had been released a second time this season by the Chicago Cubs. Expect to see him at the bottom of the lineup card tonight, along with rookie Jeremiah Jackson, who has 31 plate appearances in The Show, and journeyman switch-hitter Dylan Carlson.
The 25-year-old is the 10th-ranked prospect for the Athletics, whose best path towards MLB success is as a multi-inning reliever. Perkins was a fifth-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft, having spent four years in college between Louisville and Indiana, missing one season with elbow surgery.
Perkins made his first start in Triple-A on May 1 after missing the first portion of the season with an injury. He was stretched out to a 90-pitch workload by mid-June, getting called up to The Show as a multi-inning reliever.
This will be his third start for the A’s, having logged 62 pitches on Aug. 3 and then 84 pitches six days later. Sutter Health Park is, of course, very advantageous to offenses, though the temperatures are down a touch to the mid-80s tonight for most of the expected pitching window for the starters.
We have covered it several times over the last fortnight, but it is still worth pointing out that Los Angeles has only two hitters in the projected lineup with a below-average strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Savvy gamers will, of course, also stack the Angels, but if Perkins could somehow post a dozen DraftKings fantasy points, he provides so much salary cap relief that he has a chance of being in the optimal lineup.
On the late slate, LHP Yusei Kikuchi is in play as the 34-year-old continues to provide strikeouts, and if he can mitigate the production of Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker, he has a chance to provide a return on his reasonable salary. We will want to stack the A’s because of the ballpark, though it is hard to be overly excited by veterans Luis Urias and Gio Urshela, as well as MiLB lifer Max Schuemann.
TLDR: Perkins is a discount dandy SP2 on DraftKings, but it is important to note that he is not needed on FanDuel or Yahoo. The Angels have the second-highest probability of being the top stack, though it is one-third of the probability of the Arizona Diamondbacks in Coors Field.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Detroit Tigers
In Minnesota, it looks like rookie RHP Pierson Ohl will be starting, though expectations are that he will be capped around 60 pitches or until Detroit crushes his hopes and dreams. It would appear that RHP Jose Urena is being supplanted in the rotation as it is his turn tonight, which, of course, makes him a likely bulk reliever. Technically Ohl is “better” than Urena, who is on his fourth team of the season, but the 14th-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft does not even crack the top-25 Minnesota prospect list.
The soon-to-be 26-year-old does have good location and control, though none of his pitches are particularly terrifying and mistakes are likely to be launched out of the park. Detroit has a top-8 offense this season, and there are few weaknesses in the lineup. Spencer Torkelson is finally showing what made him the first overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and Kerry Carpenter is healthy at last. Riley Greene, Colt Keith and Gleyber Torres round out a strong top 5, which still leaves “All-Stars” Zach McKinstry and Javier Baez as standouts from the bottom of the lineup card. Heck, even switch-hitter Wenceel Perez has flashed power from both sides of the plate, making the Motor City Kitties a legitimate postseason contender.
Late Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Salary, of course, is a major factor, which in turn is what is pushing the Dodgers down in popularity. This has been a wild season for RHP Randy Vasquez, who successfully became the first MLB pitcher to have a horseshoe surgically implanted in his … OK, that may not be true, but how else can a 3.93 ERA be explained when he has a 5.98 xERA, 5.31 FIP and 5.98 xFIP across 22 — yes TWENTY-TWO — starts?!
Unfortunately, RHP Michael King is back on the injured reserve, which opens up this starting slot after only one appearance. There could be an opener, and while San Diego beefed up the bullpen at the trade deadline, those were with one-inning arms and not a multi-inning reliever. If expectations do not come to fruition with Vasquez, then there are plenty of other pivots.
Aside from luck, Vasquez has no other appealing attributes, with his 14.4% strikeout rate last season sliding down to an unthinkable 10.1% this year. He also has a 6.4% swinging-strike rate and an unsightly 12.0% barrel rate against 467 batters faced this season. The Regression Monster is lurking, and he is hungry, my friends, very hungry (h/t Dean78904).
For the featured slate, ride with the usual suspects, including Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and catcher Will Smith. Max Muncy was a late scratch on Wednesday, but if he is in the lineup, he rounds out a solid core four. If he remains out, then look to outfielders Teoscar Hernandez or Andy Pages. For differentiation, skipping Mookie Betts is an acceptable strategy. Even with his falling salary, it still does not account for his mediocre offensive production, and while he has been a little better in August, he still has only three extra-base hits in 56 plate appearances.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like MacKenzie Gore to be under 6.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Prior to what could potentially be a dead cat bounce, in four starts across 15.2 innings, Gore allowed a whopping 23 earned runs with a 13.2 ERA, 9.11 FIP and 6.06 xFIP. There was no discernable change in his velocity or movement, so it could have just been bad luck, though three years in a row at the same point of the season is feeling a little suspect.
For this wager to fail, Gore needs to record seven strikeouts against Philadelphia. In his most recent 12 starts, he tallied 10, none, four, four, two, seven, two, six, four, five, six and seven. Most books are offering under 6.5 strikeouts at -105 to -117, which maths out to a negative 3% to 8% expected ROI when considering the -111 “true odds” as calculated by Portfolio EV.
