MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Coors Field Countermoves! (July 2)

Wednesday has a solid 10-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is locking at 6:40 p.m. ET with a hefty 12-game set. As we review the MLB DFS picks for today, leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the smartest way to uncover value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using data-backed tools is key.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Los Angeles Dodgers at home against rookie Sean Burke and the Houston Astros in Coors Field are the teams to target. Boston provides differentiation against RHP Nick Martinez, while Texas is a nice complementary stack that is not going to bust any budgets. There are ample aces tonight, with Hunter Brown profiling well, even in the thin Denver air and savvy veteran Clayton Kershaw continues to evolve his game to confound opposing batsmen.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

Brown is a touch pricy on Yahoo, where his $57 is just shy of the $60 soft ceiling used for absolute aces in epic matchups (think prime Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw), though still on the short list for key arms. This has been a tremendous season for Brown, who leads the league with his 1.74 ERA, easily outpacing Paul Skenes (2.03) and Max Fried (2.13). The 26-year-old is also in the top five with his 0.891 WHIP, and in the top-10 for quality starts (12) and strikeouts (10.8 per nine innings).

June was stellar for Brown, with a 1.19 ERA, 0.824 WHIP and only four earned runs, including a pair of homers, in his 30.1 innings. Surprisingly, this is only his second best month after an epic April that was better across the board.

Backing any pitcher in Coors Field is accepting additional risk. The key for Brown will be continuing to induce groundballs (48.3% across his last 1,107 batters faced), while maintaining his lofty strikeout rate. Fortunately his pitch portfolio should play well at altitude, with a heavy reliance on his four-seam fastball (34.6%) and his sinker (24.6%), with his knuckle-curve (22.5%) being the one pitch that may not have the same impact.

Even in his prime, the three-time Cy Young Award winner and former MVP had a mid-90s fastball, so he has been able to fashion his “crafty lefty” approach by still using the strength of his breaking pitches. Across the last 16 games, Chicago is averaging just 2.88 runs, with one or fewer in half of these tilts.

Luis Robert Jr. is on the injured list, which leaves lefty journeymen Andrew Benintendi and Mike Tauchman as the “best” hitters, with former Dodger prospect Miguel Vargas the only worrisome bat from the right-side of the plate.

If Kershaw has a little efficiency and luck, he should be in the mix for a quality start, with a handful of strikeouts and a good chance as his offense carrying him to a win.

In Arizona, RHP Merrill Kelly is facing San Francisco, with the 36-year-old continuing to defy the odds and remain relevant. The baseball nomad has allowed home runs in each of his last three starts, though in five June games, he had an excellent 2.79 ERA, with 36 strikeouts in 29 frames. This includes games in Colorado and Atlanta, plus taking on San Diego and Seattle in Chase Field.

In Texas, RHP Jacob deGrom will be facing the Baltimore Orioles, with no worries about the weather. He projects to be the most popular pitcher on DraftKings, aided by a $500 savings when compared to Yamamoto. If Atlanta is dealing with rain, gamers are going to pivot away from RHP Grant Holmes, who is the most popular option across the main DFS sites, which could lead to Baz getting more tournament representation since this duo is at a similar salary.

Rookie RHP Will Warren recently celebrated the completion of his 26th trip around the sun. The top throwing Yankee prospect has been racking up the strikeouts with 11.54 per nine innings, which is well above the 9.5-to-10.0 most season long projection systems (Steamer, ZiPS, The Bat) had forecast. The 10.1% walk rate this season is a little concerning, but if he maintains anything close to his 29.6% strikeout rate, he should have a strong second half. He is facing a Toronto lineup that does limit strikeouts, though the team does have a dearth of power and the bottom of the order presents three-up, three-down potential.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Contrarian Target: Boston Red Sox

Boston has scored the sixth-most runs in the league over the last 30 days, despite trading Rafael Devers to San Francisco. The team has the seventh-best scoring efficiency in this stretch and are well suited to handle right-handed hurlers. In his last start, RHP Nick Martinez took a no-hitter into the ninth inning, ceding a base knock to pinch-hitter Elias Diaz. The 34-year-old MLB vagabond had a hefty 112 pitches in that effort and he is working on just four days of rest.

In his two preceding appearances, Martinez had actually be used as a reliever, so expectations are that he is likely to see a reduced workload tonight, especially if he is not effective early. These teams also have to finish up Tuesday’s game, which was suspended for inclement weather at the end of the third inning, which could create a strain on the bullpen, even though it is rested.

Jaren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and switch-hitter Abraham Toro all perform well against right-handed pitchers, with excellent contact and power upside. Rookie Roman Anthony has been on a four-game heater, with eight hits, including three doubles, though he has just one RBI to show for his efforts. In his 52 plate appearances with the platoon-advantage, he has a .347 wOBA and a .190 ISO, while his 17.3% walk rate indicates a discerning eye.

For those seeking full-stacks, rookie Marcelo Mayer will be further down the order, though he has held his own against opposite-handed hurlers, with veteran catcher Carlos Narvaez in the mix on DraftKings and Yahoo, enabling gamers to fulfill the pesky backstop requirement.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Main Slate Value Target: Los Angeles Dodgers

“Rookie” RHP Tomoyuki Sugano did not face the Rangers when these two teams squared off in Baltimore at the end of June, so he may have surprise on his side the first time through the order. That is unlikely to be enough to slow down Texas, especially with the 35-year-old having ceded five home runs in his last three starts, with six walks and just 10 strikeouts in 13.1 innings.

The former Yomiuri Giant has suffered four multi-home run games in his last 13 appearances and he has failed to close out the fifth inning in three of his last four starts. Opposing hitters have mostly been ignoring his 88 mph fastball and making hay off his sinker and curveball. Smith and Seager are the foundational plays for Texas stacks, with Marcus Semien continuing his mid-season hot streak.

For those seeking full-stacks, Adolis Garcia, Alejandro Osuna and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim are viable clicks. To be clear, Texas is best employed as a salary saving differentiation stack, so stopping at two or three Rangers is perfectly acceptable.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Shota Imanaga under 4.5 strikeouts. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Imanaga has seen his strikeouts slide from 9.03 per nine innings last year, to 6.71 this season. This has been a little worse in actuality, though the drop from 25.1% last year to a 19.2% strikeout rate this season is still concerning. He projects for 4.9 strikeouts against the Guardians and while the projected Cleveland lineup has a low sub-20% strikeout rate against southpaws this season, it is important to note that is heavily weighted by Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana. Four hitters in the expected lineup do have a strikeout rate of 26% or higher when facing lefties this season, so getting this wager at +130 or better is crucial.