MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 8
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
In Milwaukee, RHP Aaron Civale is facing the visiting San Diego Padres with an appealing salary to have him under consideration as an SP2 on both DraftKings ($6,800) and Yahoo ($30). In Cleveland, RHP Tanner Bibee is only $400 more on DraftKings in a matchup against the meandering Houston offense, with the Astros still missing Yordan Alvarez as he convalesces from a fractured hand. Update: some sites are reporting that RHP Freddy Peralta is starting for Milwaukee, which would have him in play as an intriguing discount to Ryan and, of course, take Civale off the board.
The penultimate mention is RHP Michael Lorenzen, who is in Chicago facing the pathetic White Sox. Of course, Lorenzen has been in rough form over the last month and does not bring much in the way of strikeouts, but this is a nice get-right spot for the former two-way player.
Finally, we get to the main recommendation with RHP Joe Ryan, who is facing the visiting Toronto Blue Jays in Minnesota. While the Twins are -180 home favorites to garner the win, that is as much about RHP Bowden Francis toeing the rubber for Toronto as it is the Blue Jays offense. This year the Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching while scoring runs around league average and posting slightly substandard power numbers.
The projected lineup today has a 17.6% strikeout rate against righties, with nobody above league average when reviewing the data from the start of last season. There is a slight bonus, though: With Dalton Varsho and Anthony Santander both on the injured list, the power numbers are pretty putrid at a .112 ISO for this collective crew over the last season-plus.
Across his last 808 batters faced, Ryan has a combined 27.6% strikeout rate, which, along with the overall lack of power for Toronto, will help mask his propensity for untimely extra-base hits.
In his three appearances since returning from a strained hamstring, which cost him most of the first two months of the season, Strider logged 14 innings, allowing four home runs, five walks, 10 earned runs and 14 strikeouts.
The ballpark boost is a bonus today, and he should be good for around 90 to 95 pitches, but gamers need to have appropriate expectations as the Atlanta ace regains his form.
Roupp gets the nod over the duo of RHP Tomoyuki Sugano and LHP Jacob Lopez, who will be leading the Baltimore Orioles and Athletics in West Sacramento this afternoon.
Models have RHP George Kirby just behind Strider but ahead of Roupp, though that is not accounting for salary, and Your Ol’ Pal is skeptical of Kirby, even as a lifelong Mariners fan.
Atlanta has everyone back, save for Jurickson Profar, who is still serving his PED suspension, but the back of the order has been dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last month and not much better when expanding the data range to the full season.
The core four of Ronald Acuna Jr. Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna have power that plays in any park, and they are capable of carrying the team to victory this afternoon. To be clear, this game is a “both-sideser” (h/t to TMcB for that phrase), even though this matchup has the two most appealing pitching options.
San Francisco does not have anywhere near the power upside as Atlanta, but the Giants are good at making contact and right now Strider is closer to a league-average pitcher than an apex predator. Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman are the preferred pair, with lefties Jung Hoo Lee, Mike Yastrzemski and recently acquired Dominic Smith the next men up to build out a three- or four-man stack.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Through a scheduling twist, Singer pitched in Great American Ballpark only twice in his last four starts. This afternoon he will be taking the mound at his new home venue, which should be an adventure. Before joining the Reds as part of a trade for Jonathan India, Singer spent five seasons in Kansas City as a serviceable innings eater. Kauffman Stadium is actually favorable to pitchers in the early and late months of the season, while Great American Ballpark is the most homer-friendly environment in the league at all times.
Singer’s ground ball rate has slipped to a career-low 33.5%, which is a big drop from his 49.2% in 685.1 innings with the Royals. That should improve somewhat, but he also has a career-worst 3.68 walks per nine, and the 28-year-old has a favorable .279 BABIP. While he probably won’t give up more than two home runs, he does not have the strikeout stuff to survive against a deep lineup like Arizona, so crooked numbers are in the forecast for the Diamondbacks.
Corbin Carroll should be back atop the order after getting a break Saturday night in the regularly scheduled game, followed by switch-hitters Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo, who are both strong from the left side of the plate. Josh Naylor was back in action yesterday after missing Friday’s fun, so he and Pavin Smith are another pair of southpaws to select.
Eugenio Suarez is having a tremendous season, and he knocked one out of the park last night against his former team of seven seasons. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a differentiation option, though he is likely going to be hitting towards the bottom of the order, as he and Perdomo move around depending on if it is a lefty or righty starting for the opposing team.
Late Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Angels
However, he is very hittable, leading the American League in hits allowed last year and ceding the sixth most in all of baseball during these two seasons. Kirby missed most of the season with a shoulder issue, so this will be only his fourth start. He also took a glancing blow from a 102 mph line drive off his lower face in his last appearance, which has to be disconcerting.
In his 13.2 innings, he has three home runs, four walks and 11 strikeouts but also 21 hits, and he hit two batters as well, with 13 of the 27 baserunners coming around to score in this stretch. While he has been somewhat unlucky with his advanced metrics of 5.79 xERA, 5.63 FIP and 4.25 xFIP being better than his actual 8.56 ERA, it is still not particularly comforting.
The Angels have a mostly right-handed lineup, which means Kirby will have the platoon advantage, though that is small solace considering the prodigious power of Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, catcher Logan O’Hoppe and Jo Adell if he makes contact. Leadoff man Zach Neto profiles particularly well against Kirby, so there are many ways to stack the Halos.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Jack Flaherty under 5.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Flaherty is a solid source of strikeouts with nearly a 28% combined rate over the last two seasons. He projects for 5.9 strikeouts against the Cubs today, but this is a dangerous Chicago lineup with plenty of power that could make for short work of Flaherty. The key is getting this wager at plus money; otherwise it is a pass.
