MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 4
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Crochet was the offseason prize of the hot stove league, with Boston working out a deal for the sublime southpaw, sending a handful of prospects to the Chicago White Sox.
Last year, the Pale Hose went into asset protection mode with Crochet, limiting him to no more than four innings across his 14 starts, beginning in July. That helped buoy his strikeouts per inning rate, so gamers should not be worried by his “decrease” from 12.88 to 10.23 per nine this season.
The 26-year-old has seen a slight uptick in his walks, but that has been countered by limiting the opposition to a stellar .248 batting average on balls in play, ceding only a pair of longballs and a trio of doubles in his 44 innings.
The only opposing bats that should cause any concern are the oft-injured duo of Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who are amazingly both healthy at the same time.
Ty France and catcher Ryan Jeffers are not easy outs and they limit strikeouts, but the tradeoff is a paucity of power. The rest of the lineup is filled with “create a players” that should be easily dispatched by Crochet.
The Rockies have plated seven runners through the first three games, though the team has tallied more that four runs only once in their last 14 opportunities. Webb allowed five runs in five innings against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday, though that should not dissuade gamers from making him the ace of the day. In reverse chronological order, his other starts this season have seen the groundball artist ceding zero, one, three, zero, one and three earned runs.
In Anaheim, RHP Reese Olson will be squaring off against the Angels, who are without Mike Trout (knee). Though the Halos got off the snide Saturday, with a 5-2 victory against RHP Jack Flaherty, that ended a seven-game losing streak. Los Angeles is 4-14 in the last 18 games, scoring more than four runs twice. The only knock on Olson, is that he is averaging right around 90 pitches per game thus far, failing to close out the fifth inning twice. For those playing on the blue site, he does have two quality starts in his six opportunities, including an efficient 7.1 scoreless innings against San Diego, on an economical 85 throws.
Finally we have LHP MacKenzie Gore, who was a key return, along with shortstop CJ Abrams, in the Juan Soto deal with the Friars. He has been legit this season, notching 13 strikeouts on Opening Day against the Phillies in six scoreless innings, following that up with a quality start in Philadelphia his last time out, with half a dozen whiffs. For those worried about the Great American Ballpark, it is fun to note that Gore also had 13 strikeouts in Coors Field on Apr. 19 and while that has no bearing on today’s outcome, it is still comforting.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox
New York also has potential rain in the forecast, which puts the Yankees and Rays at risk, despite intriguing matchups with RHPs Will Warren and Taj Bradley, who has seen his strikeout rate slipping. The Athletics are in Miami, against RHP Edward Cabrera, with the team being a safe option. The A’s have been written up ad nauseum in this article series, so just stick with the usual suspects against RHP Edward Cabrera, who has not been afraid to challenge hitters (20 strikeouts in 18.2 innings) as he works his way back to full health. Of course that has not worked out particularly well, since he has 11 walks in this timeframe, while also allowing one home run in each of the four game, leading to a 7.23 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.
That leads us to Boston, with the Red Sox taking on RHP Chris Paddack, with the weather looking like it will be held at bay. After a strong rookie campaign back in 2019 with San Diego, Paddack never was able to capitalize on his potential. Injuries limited him to only 24 appearances and 115.7 innings in the three preceding seasons and the now 29-year-old has looked shaky at best this year.
Paddack has always has decent strikeout upside, in the right matchups, with 8.76 per nine innings for his career. However, he also has fly ball tendencis, which have lead to a 1.46 home runs per nine innings rate, which has ticked up to 1.57 over his last 120.2 frames.
The top of the order has been crushing against righties this season, with Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu all holding the platoon-advantage. Former Houston third baseman Alex Bregman has a long track record of success against same-handed hurlers, creating a strong set of hitters for BoSox stacks.
DraftKings and Yahoo did a nice job with the pricing for this quartet, leading to some tougher decision points when it comes to adding pitchers with Boston. The FanDuel salary algorithm mostly got it correct as well, but there are enough misses across the other teams, that it is not hard to ride with the Red Sox.
Late Slate Primary Target: San Francisco Giants
The Colorado bullpen has fresh arms, though none are particularly intimidating and there is only one lefty reliever on the team. That means LaMonte Wade is a pinch-hit risk, though he is at the back of the order these days, so unlikely to be in many stacks. Jung Hoo Lee is steady against fellow-lefties and it is unlikely that the team removes veteran Mike Yastrzemski from the leadoff slot if he has to face a southpaw.
Willy Adames and Matt Chapman round out the core four, with Wilmer Flores and Heliot Ramos desirable differentiation options. Keep in mind that this is a 1:05 p.m. local start time, with temperatures in the mid-60s, alleviating some of the pitching friendly aspects of the venue.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take Lance McCullers Jr. under 4.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
McCullers has not played since 2022, missing multiple seasons with forearm and elbow issues. For his career, he has a 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings rate, but we last saw him in action during the 2022 World Series, when he allowed seven earned runs to the Phillies in Philadelphia in a 7-0 Game 3 loss. The Astros ended up winning the championship, so there was a silver lining, but it was despite McCullers.
The now 31-year-old has made four starts, between Double-A and Triple-A, with an increasing pitch count (35, 50, 61, 71). It would be a surprise to see him go more than 75 throws this afternoon and with potential precipitation, that is enough to push the math in our favor for the under five strikeouts, even against the putrid Pale Hose offense.
