MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
After a rough patch in early July, Brown regained his form over the last five games, posting a 1.50 ERA, 2.48 FIP and 3.65 xFIP across 30 innings (@DET, vs. BOS, @NYY, @BOS, vs. ATH). In this timeframe he was a touch light on his strikeouts, though given the run prevention and no home runs allowed against these tough offense, he gets a mulligan.
This season, Colorado has scored the second-fewest runs in the league, with only 3.74 per tilt, ahead of the pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates (3.58). On the season, the Rockies have a woeful 77 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric, that neutralizes different variables including park factor, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100).
That means the Rockies are creating runs 23 less efficiently than league average. For reference, the Bucs are the next worst team and they are significantly higher with a still bad 85 wRC+.
The projected lineup for Colorado has a 23.5% strikeout rate against righties this season, which bodes well for Brown how has a 29.3% strikeout rate of his own, which is a career-high.
While Brown is no longer in the mix for the American League Cy Young Award, he is in the chase group (+3500) right behind frontrunners Tarik Skubal (-165) and Garrett Crochet (+120), per BetMGM, check out all the live odds across the sports wagering realm with OddsShopper.
While it is usually folly to try and assign the win bonus, the Astros are -350 home favorites to garner the victory, which bodes well for Brown. Slugger Yordan Alvarez has been out for nearly four months with a hand injury, though he has been locked in across his four rehabilitation games in Triple-A (7-for-15 with a .467/.529/.733 triple-slash line) and he may return to The Show tonight.
Boyd ranks sixth in the league with 12 wins, ninth with 16 quality starts and fifth with a pristine 2.61 ERA. He has been a little lucky when compared to his 3.29 xERA, 3.29 FIP and 3.94 xFIP, but still stellar.
Despite running out a mostly right-handed lineup, the projected San Francisco squad has a subpar .131 ISO and 24.9% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Brown will need to deal with Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers at the top of the order, though he should have the upper-hand against the rest of the Giants tonight.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Detroit Tigers
It sounds like LHP Jacob Lopez (forearm) may land on the injured list, which would give the Athletics a roster spot that could be filled with someone from the minors. RHPs Joey Estes and Eduarniel Nunez logged 40 and 29 pitches on Sunday, so they may not be in the mix as “long relievers” but could chip in for an inning or two. Regardless of who is on the mound, the Tigers are a team to target with their lofty run total.
Kerry Carpenter and Riley Green are both in the $5,000-plus range on DraftKings, which may help keep their popularity in check. Colt Keith is a strong option from the leadoff slot, while slugger Spencer Torkelson and switch-hitter Wenceel Perez are terrific targets in the middle of the order.
After a dreadful start to the season, RHP Charlie Morton has more than held his own since the All-Star Break. In six games, including two with Baltimore before being traded to Detroit, the 41-year-old has a 3.86 ERA across 35 innings. He has been lucky with his 4.80 FIP and 4.14 xFIP, along with an 83.3% strand rate, though the 38 strikeouts are real.
The venerable veteran usually can mitigate fellow righties, with a strong groundball rate (48.8% since the start of last year against 582 batters faced), though he still suffers extra-base hits on a lot of line drives. Lefties are his kryptonite, which means rookie Nick Kurtz, cleanup hitter Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler are the trio to target. Catcher Shea Langeliers and outfielder Brent Rooker are always in play, giving gamers several ways to craft A’s stacks.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Houston Astros
To his credit, Gordon has survived over his last two starts, allowing four runs in 11 combined innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Coors Field. Of course in his three preceding tilts, Gordon allowed 23 runs across 10.1 innings, with only one of those games in the thin Denver air.
The addition of Jesus Sanchez and Carlos Correa have helped shore up the ‘Stros on offense, providing protection for Christian Walker, Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena. Catcher Yanier Diaz also profiles well against Gordon, making him an intriguing option to fulfill the backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Jesus Sanchez to hit a home run tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
It is a small sample size, but Gordon has been worse on the road than in Coors Field, each of his two seasons for Colorado. In this timeframe, lefties have put up a .220 ISO and Sanchez has hit 11 of his 12 round-trippers off of right-handed pitchers.
Let PortfolioEV do the heavy lifting and all the math, while reaping the advantages of finding the best bets at the best numbers across the marketplace.
