MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Don’t be a Screwball, Roster Skubal! (July 11)

Friday’s featured slate has all 30 teams in action, with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As we dig around for the MLB DFS picks for today, leaning on Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the best way to find value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using smart, +ROI tools is vital.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Athletics both look solid in West Sacramento tonight, while the Reds are another strong option in Cincinnati against RHP German Marquez. On the pitching front, there are aces everywhere, with lefties Tarik Skubal and Ranger Suarez having the best matchups.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

There is a minimum risk of precipitation in the area, but current forecasts have it missing Comerica Park. Still, it is worth monitoring, and this game is one of the first to lock.

Skubal is the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, and he is the odds-on favorite (-400) to repeat, well ahead of Garrett Crochet (+750), Hunter Brown (+1000) and Jacob deGrom (+1100). Last year he led the AL in WAR, wins, ERA, total strikeouts, ERA+ and FIP. This year he is among the leaders in wins and strikeouts while leading the other categories, along with WHIP and BOTH strikeouts and walks per nine innings.

Seattle’s offense is better on the road, though the Mariners are more equipped to deal with right-handed hurlers. The main challenge tonight for Skubal will be mitigating the power of Cal Raleigh and the overall peskiness of Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena.

Keep tabs on the weather in Minnesota, where Pittsburgh and RHP Paul Skenes are facing the Twins and RHP Joe Ryan. Both pitchers are terrific tournament options, though it does look like precipitation could impact the latter portion of the game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has struggled against southpaws, with a .286 wOBA, .095 ISO and a 25.8% strikeout rate since the start of last year. Lefties Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth and even three-time batting champion Luis Arraez had similarly dreadful results in this same timeframe. Cronenworth and Merrill have been better this year, but that is small solace, making them and Manny Machado the main concerns for Suarez.

In San Francisco, RHP Logan Webb is facing the Dodgers with the entire Los Angeles team in a hitting funk. Max Muncy and Kike Hernandez are both on the injured list, and Teoscar Hernandez (foot) has one pinch-hit appearance since Saturday. He is expected to be available tonight, though over the last two weeks, the Dodgers scored just 42 runs. For perspective, that is one fewer than Colorado and 40 fewer than Texas in the same period.

Webb is well behind Zack Wheeler and Skenes in the National League Cy Young Award race, though he has the third-best odds and is in the midst of a career season. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts have a strong personal history against Webb and, of course, Shohei Ohtani is amazing, but Webb is still in play, particularly on the late slate.

There is some weather risk tonight in Chicago, which could impact the second game of the doubleheader. Last night rain caused a postponement, so the Cleveland Guardians are electing to go with LHP Logan Allen this afternoon and RHP Gavin Williams tonight. If it is Allen who starts tonight, he was profiled here in Thursday’s article.

Luis Robert Jr. is back from his hamstring injury, and the White Sox are hoping to boost his trade value after holding on to him during their fire sale last summer. Williams has seen his strikeout rate slide from 24.3% to 22.7%, though this is still a good matchup for the soon-to-be 26-year-old. Lefties Michael Tauchman and Andrew Benintendi, along with Miguel Vargas, are the only real worries for Williams tonight.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Cincinnati Reds

It looked like RHP German Marquez may have been turning things around, though the White Sox just embarrassed him for six runs during his last start in Coors Field. The game prior, he battled the Brewers in Milwaukee, just missing on a quality start by one out. Technically, he did not allow an earned run in the preceding start against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field, but he did have a hand in six unearned runs.

The former ace missed most of the 2023 and 2024 seasons with injuries, and while his fastball is still in the mid-90s, his knuckle curve can only take him so far. He has been a little unlucky with a 59.4% left-on-base rate, though his inability to register strikeouts and elevated fly ball rate are creating a perfect storm for opposing offenses to attack.

Elly De La Cruz is always a great place to start Cincy stacks, but do not be afraid to look to the back of the order, as Spencer Steer and Will Benson are a fun righty-lefty combo. TJ Friedl and Austin Hays will be popular with The Masses as the leadoff and cleanup hitters, which leaves Gavin Lux as another underrepresented stacking component.

Colorado had Thursday off, allowing the bullpen a day of recovery, but this is one of the worst collection of relievers in the league and they have had to carry the starting staff.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Main Slate Secondary Target: Toronto Blue Jays

The 31-year-old is not afraid to challenge hitters, though his goal is to induce weaker contact and allow his defense to do the heavy lifting. Unfortunately, the smaller stadium does not help his fly ball tendencies, and neither will the mid-90s temperatures and light breeze out to centerfield.

George Springer (.231 ISO, 251 plate appearances) and Addison Barger (.274 ISO, 221 PAs) have been crushing the ball from the right and left side of the plate. This is providing protection for superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ,and it looks like Bo Bichette has finally escaped the doldrums of his multi-season slump. Add in Nathan Lukes as a discount dandy on DraftKings ($3,700) and FanDuel ($2,600) for a fun full stack or a malleable mini-stack that can be configured a variety of ways.

It would be a surprise to see RHP Max Scherzer go more than 80 pitches as the soon-to-be 41-year-old rebuilds his stamina. He logged 14 innings across three starts after missing three months with a thumb issue. Though he allowed only one longball in this stretch and recorded a solid 15 strikeouts, the six walks are concerning.

The A’s have a lot of strikeout potential, but the projected lineup has six of the top seven batters each boasting a .186 ISO, with Nick Kurtz (.331 ISO, 162 PAs), Shea Langeliers (.218 ISO, 211 PAs) and Tyler Soderstrom (.219 ISO, 296 PAs) all well above that. Add in Home Run Derby participant Brent Rooker and rookie All-Star Jacob Wilson, and this could be a long or short night for Scherzer, depending on the vantage point.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

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It is going to be warm and humid tonight in St. Louis as LHP Matthew Liberatore and the Cardinals host RHP Grant Holmes and the Atlanta Braves. Holmes has been a recommended DFS pitcher many times this season, though that is because of his good matchups and reasonable salary cap hit. Walks have been a major issue for the first-round selection in the 2014 MLB Draft. Holmes was chosen straight out of high school, but he did not make it to The Show until last year as a 28-year-old rookie. He appeared in 250 MiLB games over 10 seasons, basically making him the Crash Davis of pitchers.

Walks have been an issue, with at least two in each of his last seven games and 21 total in those 37.2 innings. The Cardinals have plenty of selective hitters who also have power, which could be problematic for Holmes.

Liberatore was also a first-round pick out of high school in the 2018 MLB Draft, though he was a prospect of note who was up with the Redbirds in 2022, and while he spent the two preceding season as a multi-inning reliever/spot starter, he has been a regular in the rotation this season. He has a nice mix of limiting power and inducing ground balls, which helps him contain opposing offenses. Atlanta has only four wins in the last 13 games, scoring two or fewer runs eight times in this period.