MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 29
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
This season, Gore has taken his strikeouts to a whole new level with 13.43 per nine innings. Across the preceding 372.2 innings, he had a strong 9.76 per nine. Most season-long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat) have him for around 10.5 per nine, which would be in the top 20 among qualified starters.
The 26-year-old has two different 13 whiff performances, one at home against Philadelphia and one in Coors Field. He had nine K’s in three of his last four starts and seven in the other tilt. The only concern is that he had 12 of his 21 walks this season in the last four games.
Seattle sets up well against southpaws, with Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Garver and Randy Arozarena all doing their best work when they have the platoon advantage. Switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh is one of the best in the game from both sides of the plate, and gloveman Dylan Moore also does well against lefties. The bottom of the order is a three-up, three-down situation waiting to happen, which bodes well for Gore, as does getting to face seven batsmen in the projected lineup who strike out around 25% or more of the time against left-handed hurlers.
There is a premium for selecting Wheeler tonight, with his salary nearly 20% higher on DraftKings and just over 7% more on FanDuel and Yahoo.
This is the second game of a day-night doubleheader, the opener being a lefty-righty matchup in the other direction with Cristopher Sanchez and AJ Smith-Shawver. That means it is likely the standard “platoon players” for each team will be put in the most favorable position, while there is a chance that a regular will only play one leg of the action.
For the DFS analysis, assuming each team puts out the most “optimal” lineup against each ace, Wheeler is looking at an Atlanta lineup that has Ronald Acuna Jr. back at the top, though overall this collection of hitters has a .145 ISO and a 22.9% strikeout rate against right-handers since the start of last year.
The top of the order has the strikeouts but also good power, while the back end has little power or strikeouts but also not much in the way of good contact against righties in the same timeframe.
Flipping the sides, the Phillies have one of the best offenses in the league against lefties, led by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, who are two of the best batsmen in the game, regardless of if they are in same-handed situations like tonight or carrying the platoon advantage. The only “easy” outs are likely to be catcher J.T. Realmuto and defense-first centerfielder Johan Rojas. Still, we are talking about Sale, who has ample experience dealing with the top offenses of the National and American League East teams when including his time in Boston.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Washington Nationals
Despite being the sixth overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hancock barely cracked the top-10 prospect list for the Seattle organization. He will be in the league for the rest of this decade for sure, though he is better suited as a middle reliever who only has to face a lineup once in a game. Injuries to Kirby, as well as Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert, have forced the Mariners to keep Hancock in the rotation for at least another month and maybe two.
Hancock has elevated walks and below-average strikeout production, which leads to crooked numbers when the opposition gets the inevitable extra-base hit. In his last three games, he allowed five home runs, with five walks and only 11 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. This resulted in a 6.32 ERA, a 7.15 FIP and 4.73 xFIP indicating that it has been earned and isn’t the result of bad luck.
The Nationals set up well against righties, with their best hitters such as CJ Abrams, James Wood, Nathaniel Lowe and Luis Garcia all holding the platoon advantage. Robert Hassell III is likely to get a spot start, putting him in play as a discount dandy that pairs nicely with veteran switch-hitter Josh Bell, who has slid down the order with the addition of Lowe and development of Wood and Garcia.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Tampa Bay Rays
Gusto was an 11th-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft after a couple of mediocre seasons for Florida SouthWestern State College. He spent the last five years working his way through each level of the Houston organization, ultimately reaching Triple-A last year. He is best used as a multi-inning reliever, but with the decimated pitching depth for the entire ‘Stros organization, it makes sense that he keeps getting spot starts.
Opposite-handed hitters are a challenge for Gusto, who has allowed power, walks, fly balls and barrels, with a lack of anything resembling an out pitch and a paucity of ground balls.
Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe (no relation) are the primary targets, along with Jonathan Aranda, each swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Righties Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero should be near the middle of the order, giving them access to the fun as well.
Rookies Kameron Misner and Chandler Simpson have the platoon advantage, but both have been slipping as the league gets more of an understanding about the trouble spots in their swings. They have the green light when they are on the basepaths, but getting there could be a little tricky.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Tena will be at the bottom of the Nationals order, but he gets to go against Hancock, with the platoon advantage. The lack of power is why this wager is all the way up to +180, though it still grades out well above the “true odds” of +164 tonight.
