MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
He also ceded four runs to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, though in his six other starts since the beginning of June, he held the opposition to two or fewer runs, highlighted by 6.1 shutout innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The 27-year-old is now two years removed from his lone All-Star nod, and he had a late start to this season, recovering from shoulder inflammation. Over the last two seasons, Kirby led the league with less than one walk per nine innings and his strikeouts-per-walk rate.
This year he has slipped, though lots of starters would be thrilled to have a scant 2.0 walks per nine. He also has a career-high 25.1% strikeout rate, while his 3.77 xERA, 3.78 FIP and 3.31 xFIP indicate he has been unlucky with a 4.50 ERA.
The Brewers swept the Dodgers in Los Angeles over the weekend, having also swept the boys in blue prior to the break in Milwaukee. This has the Brew Crew in the midst of a 10-game winning streak, with a 19-4 record in their last two dozen tilts. The team sets up better against lefties, though Kirby will still need to navigate a resurgent Christian Yelich, pesky leadoff man Brice Turang, and steady stalwarts in Jackson Chourio and catcher William Contreras.
It is great to see RHP Brandon Woodruff back in action, with injuries limiting him to just 13 starts over the last two-plus seasons. He had a whopping 18 strikeouts in his two starts this year in 10.1 innings. Having had nine days off, he should be good for 80 to 85 pitches tonight as his workload increases, though the lofty salary and his fastball sitting two ticks lower than his last healthy season do need to be taken into consideration before blindly adding him to rosters.
There is not much of a salary discount for RHP Shane Baz in a matchup against the dreadful Chicago White Sox offense, albeit in one of the best hitting environments aside from Coors Field tonight. In a wild twist, the Pale Hose produced 27 runs against the Pirates in Pittsburgh over the weekend, earning their first series sweep of the season.
The three victories also tie the longest winning streak of the season, with the Southsiders having won three consecutive games on two other occasions. Viewed through a different lens, those 27 runs represent 7.5% of the season total for the White Sox. Yikes!
Baz has been solid this season, though his road ERA (2.91) is far better than at Steinbrenner Field (5.47). If this were any other team (aside from the Colorado Rockies), the 26-year-old would not have been called out as a recommended option.
The projected lineup for Chicago has a dreadful .124 ISO, and while the lineup has a solid 20.4% strikeout rate this season against righties, the back of the order should give Baz ample opportunities to make his own magic at the plate.
For those looking to avoid the weather, RHP Zac Gallen will be at Chase Field tonight with the roof close and the humidor in full effect. The soon-to-be 30-year-old has scuffled this season, though he gets to face a mostly right-handed Houston lineup with Isaac Paredes landing on the injured list, joining Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers.
Houston’s projected lineup has a .108 ISO against right-handed hurlers this season, with a hefty 24.3% strikeout rate. The many injuries have pushed Cam Smith into a prominent role at the top of the order, and the team is counting on deep reserves such as Taylor Trammell, Cooper Hummel and Shay Whitcomb to fill out the lineup card.
Shohei Ohtani is going to pitch for the Dodgers, with RHP Dustin May coming in after a couple of innings. While May will not be eligible for a quality start, he is in the mix as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo, getting to face a Minnesota squad that just spent the weekend in the thin air of Denver. The roof should be closed at Globe Life Field in Arlington, giving additional appeal to discount dandies LHP Jacob Lopez and RHP Jack Leiter as the Athletics start off a three-game series against the Rangers in Texas.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Tampa Bay Rays
Rookie RHP Sean Burke will be on the mound for Chicago tonight, having actually had moments of competence this season. Burke was a surprise as the Opening Day starter considering he had only two late-season outings last year, and the oft-injured hurler projects to be more of a multi-inning reliever than a full-time starter. Of course, desperate times call for desperate measures. Veteran LHP Martin Perez, rookie RHP Shane Smith and create-a-player RHP Davis Martin should return to the rotation in August, though for now it is Burke and Milwaukee castoffs Aaron Civale and Adrian Houser attempting to hold things together.
Tampa’s core four of veteran Brandon Lowe, on-base maven Yandy Diaz, budding slugger Jonathan Aranda and Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero all have elite power against right-handed pitching, which is augmented by the hitting-friendly nature of Steinbrenner Field. Speedy rookie Chandler Simpson and outfielder Josh Lowe are in play for those looking to craft full stacks. The White Sox bullpen is a mix of unproven youngsters and “lucky to be in the league” journeymen, so there will be no cavalry coming to the rescue once Burke hits the clubhouse.
Late Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has been swept in three of the last four series, posting a 2-10 record in this span and failing to score more than two runs in seven of these games. Despite this summer swoon, the Dodgers are only two games behind Detroit for the best record in the league, and the boys in blue have still outscored every team in the land.
Walks have been an issue for RHP David Festa, who is the top pitching prospect for Minnesota. His strikeouts have slipped from 10.8 per nine innings last year to nine this season, and he has been a little unlucky with his 5.25 ERA against a 4.36 FIP and xFIP. After being sent down to Triple-A for more seasoning, he had a pair of eight-run outings, leading to a 6.69 ERA over his last seven appearances. He allowed only one home run in his last three starts, but that should change tonight.
Freddie Freeman left Sunday’s game after being hit on the wrist by a pitch from Jose Quintana, and he is day-to-day, though unlikely to play tonight. Max Muncy is also out, with the Dodgers’ debacle occurring after he was placed on the injured list. That is just happenstance, as a couple other regulars missed a few games here and there during the slump, but still worth calling out.
Aside from Shohei Ohtani and catcher Will Smith, none of the Dodgers have particularly daunting salaries. Michael Conforto is a strong discount dandy on DraftKings ($2,800) as he should be near the heart of the order tonight, and his low cap hit facilitates full stacks of Ohtani, Smith, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez.
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