MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 3
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The ace of the night across all three platforms is LHP Carlos Rodon at home against Cleveland. Last year, the Guardians had a 20.7% strikeout rate against southpaws, which was in the bottom third of the league. This year after some roster turnover, the team has jumped to a 25.1% strikeout rate against lefties, which is in the top third of the league.
Cleveland is a lineup of haves and have-nots when it comes to providing strikeout opportunities to opposing lefties. Jose Ramirez (10.6%, 227 plate appearances), Steven Kwan (11.7%, 223 PAs) and Carlos Santana (16.8%, 214 PAs) are very disciplined at the dish. Gabriel Arias, Jhonkensy Noel, Will Wilson and Austin Hedges have a collective 32% strikeout rate against lefties from the back of the order. In between are Angel Martinez and recently returned David Fry, who are each a little below league average. Fry will only be serving as the designated hitter this year, completing his rehabilitation from elbow surgery and joining the lineup yesterday. When he is in the lineup, it means Santana will be manning first base.
Rodon makes his own magic at the plate with 11.15 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is his highest since 2022, when he appeared in his second consecutive All-Star Game, this time in his lone season as a San Francisco Giant. New York is also a -200 favorite to garner the victory in Yankee Stadium tonight, which could mean more fantasy points for Rodon.
Kirby was nails each of the last two years, leading the league with a miniscule walk rate (0.99 per nine innings), and in turn his strikeouts-to-walks ratio (8.36 per nine) was stellar, also leading the league each season.
Even with 8.3 strikeouts per nine across these 64 starts, he still allowed the most hits in the league last year and was among the leaders in that category in 2023 as well.
In two starts against Washington and in Houston, he did have eight strikeouts in 8.2 innings, but he also allowed three walks and a trio of taters, resulting in an 11.42 ERA and a 1.851 WHIP. The O’s have been just turrible at the plate (shout out to Charles Barkley), but with so many other options on the plate, it makes sense to let other gamers assume the risk of a third consecutive meltdown by Kirby.
In Toronto, LHP Cristopher Sanchez is on the mound against the Blue Jays, with the Phillies actually being favored. Sanchez has continued to build on last year’s breakout, putting up a similar stat line to his first All-Star campaign. The strikeouts are up a tick, which is a reasonable tradeoff for increased power, considering that the 28-year-old frontline starter has a glorious 56.8% ground ball rate for his career.
The Blue Jays bats have picked up some traction over the last month, though despite being able to run out a mostly right-handed lineup, only Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Ernie Clement have power upside against lefties. Additionally, the expected bottom of the order in Davis Schneider, Myles Straw and Jonatan Clase presents a potential three-up, three-down spot for Sanchez to regain any lost ground.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Lefty power has been an issue for RHP Bowden Francis, who ceded a .234 ISO in his last 323 opposite-handed matchups. This came with a scant 7.8% swinging-strike rate, 50.4% hard contact, a 31.7% fly ball rate and a 34.5% ground ball. Across 11 starts this season, Francis had just 46 strikeouts in 55.1 innings, with 17 walks and 15 home runs, which trails only Zack Littell (16 HRs) and Jameson Taillon (16 HRs). That duo each has made one additional start and recorded 19 and 14 more innings, respectively.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are two of the best left-handed batsmen in the game, and Bryson Stott has been improving his contact enough this season to see occasional leadoff man responsibilities against right-handed starters. Max Kepler also has benefited from a change in scenery, and with all of the amazing hitters around him, opposing pitchers have been going after him, to their detriment.
Francis is not particularly great against righties, so Trea Turner stands out, along with catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is a strong play on DraftKings and Yahoo since they have a backstop requirement.
Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
Tonight it will be LHP Jacob Lopez on the mound for the A’s, with the 27-year-old already having demonstrated that he is going to be overwhelmed at the major league level. San Francisco drafted Lopez in 2018 after a couple of non-descript college seasons in a fourth-tier program. Following a season and change in the low minors, he was traded to Tampa Bay in 2019. Lopez worked his way up the ladder, getting a couple innings in The Show in the 2023 and 2024 seasons before being moved to the Athletics this offseason.
He profiles best as a one-inning reliever with decent strikeout potential but hittable secondary offerings and control issues. That isn’t going to play well a second time through any batting order, assuming he survives the first pass.
Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and catcher Ryan Jeffers are the trio to target against lefties. Royce Lewis is still looking rusty at the plate, but it is only a matter of time before he starts smashing again, and Harrison Bader is a solid differentiation play if he is in the lineup.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take Lance McCullers Jr. under 5.5 total strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
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Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Because this game is not on the DraftKings or FanDuel featured slate, those consuming mostly fantasy content are unlikely to hear about this game — well, other than the Pirates wunderkind Paul Skenes is on the mound. Veteran Lance McCullers Jr. dealt with injuries the last couple of years, and he had a rocky reentry into the league for the Houston Astros.
In his last two games, he was stellar with 20 combined strikeouts in 10.1 innings against Seattle and the Athletics. This evening, he is facing the Pirates in Pittsburgh, and their projected lineup has a 21.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. McCullers is very good at inducing ground balls, and given the lack of power in the Pittsburgh bats, that may be his best course of attack, which would put less of a priority on getting whiffs.
