MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
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MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The temperatures are dipping into the upper-60s during the game, with a light breeze in from left field. That will have Camden Yards playing more neutral than gamers have become accustom to over the last couple of months.
Aside from a six run blemish in Anaheim, Yamamoto was stellar in August, ending the month with a 3.56 ERA across 30.1 innings. He had 34 strikeouts, while allowing only a trio of taters and he shut out the Tampa Bay Rays at Steinbrenner Field for 5.2 frames, while keeping the Rockies in check ceding only three runs in a mid-month Coors Field Extravaganza.
The Orioles still have capable hitters at the top of the lineup, even dealing away several key bats at the deadline, with a handful of offensive regulars also on the injured list.
Yamamoto should be able to handle the bottom of the order without much difficulty, leaving the frontline starter to mitigate the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday, Ryan Mountcastle and Jeremiah Jackson at the top of the lineup card.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Yamamoto has -147 odds for over 6.5 strikeouts and +210 for under 6.5 whiffs. This aligns with his projection for 6.82 strikeouts and he will be facing four opposing batsmen who have a 27.7% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season.
If the weather takes Yamamoto out of play, there is a potential pitchers’ duel in Texas with the Rangers and RHP Jacob deGrom hosting the Houston Astros and RHP Hunter Brown. The latter is the better option as the Rangers projected lineup has a 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season and of course is without Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia Marcus Semien, Sam Haggerty and Evan Carter.
For tournaments, deGrom is shaping up as a differentiation play, though the Houston lineup is more formidable now with Yordan Alvarez back, plus the addition of lefty Jesus Sanchez from the Marlins and of course the reunion with Carlos Correa returning from the Twins. Lefty power is the way to get to deGrom, though to the credit of the 37-year-old, he has been sublime this season after missing most of the last two campaigns.
The Chase Field roof will be closed for the weekend, though that has not slowed down the D’Backs by much. Even with all of these caveats, RHP Lucas Giolito is still an interesting option both as an SP2 on Yahoo, where his salary is the most favorable and as a tournament target on DraftKings and FanDuel, where he projects to be on 10% and 5% of the featured tournament entries for the respective DFS sites.
In six August starts, the 31-year-old has a pair of 8-inning outings, holding the Orioles scoreless in Baltimore and limiting the Astros to one run in Boston. While his strikeouts have slipped a little, he has been outstanding at limiting power and overall run prevention.
Corbin Carroll, along with switch-hitters Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo are dangerous at the top of the lineup. Catchers Gabriel Moreno and Adrian Del Castillo have been switching off backstop and designated hitter duties, but they have been inconsistent at the plate. Then there is the bottom of the lineup card with Alek Thomas, Tyler Locklear and Jake McCarthy who are ripe for a three-up, three-down outcome.
On the three-game late-slate, Giolito looks to be underrepresented in tournaments, with gamers eschewing Coors Field of course and choosing RHP J.T. Ginn with LHP Yusei Kikuchi in Anaheim as the Angels and Athletics face off.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta has a matchup against RHP Bryce Miller, who has made three starts since returning to action after missing 10 weeks with elbow inflammation. The 27-year-old has been on the injured list twice this season and is going to need to have surgery to remove bone chips in the near future. Across his three starts, he has tallied 16 innings, but he also has suffered six longballs and a pair of doubles.
While the preferred trio to target of Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Jurickson Profar are spendy, there is plenty of discounted options including catcher Drake Baldwin, infielder Ha-Seong Kim, outfielder Michael Harris II and even the struggling Ozzie Albies from the heart of the order. That provides a myriad of ways to craft secondary stacks and still work in some Coors Field Extravaganza participants.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Boston Red Sox
There is also a decent chance that the BoSox can overtake the hated Yankees, with New York only ahead by half a game. Erasing the four game lead held by Toronto is a taller task, but the point is Boston will be going all out down the stretch.
The wheels have come off the wagon for Pfaadt over the last seven games, with the soon-to-be 27-year-old being unlucky, but still suffering a 7.13 ERA. He has a whopping .398 batting average on balls in play during this stretch, with a dreadful 63.8% left on base rate. He has allowed five home runs which is not terrible, though the real damage has been done by a whopping 14 doubles and two triples.
Focus on Jarren Duran, Alex Bregman, Trevor Story and recent pickup Nathaniel Lowe as the core four. Catcher Carlos Narvaez is also in play on DraftKings and Yahoo, taking care of the pesky backstop requirement, while also providing synergy from the nine-hole, connecting back to the top of the order.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Bryce Harper to hit a home run. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
The two-time MVP has “only” 26 home runs this season, though a little more loft could have turned may of his 29 doubles into round-trippers. Having been in the National League East for his whole career, Harper is well acquainted with RHP Sandy Alcantra and while he has two career home runs against him, he has a strong .317/.412/.561 triple-slash line with four other extra-base hits in 41 at bats. Batter versus Pitcher (BvP) stats do not really provide actionable data, though it is good to see them supporting the overall recommendation for this wager. Home runs are fickle, so do not go overboard with the size of your bet.
