MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 19
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Luis Robert Jr. is seeing his slump from last year continue, with a dreadful 31.2% strikeout rate, a .268 wOBA and a .073 ISO in his last 128 plate appearances against opposite handed pitchers in this timeframe. Andrew Vaughn is the best all-around hitter for the White Sox, but LHP Garrett Crochet can easily work around his former teammate, to get to the rest of the dregs. It also isn’t fair to lump Lenyn Sosa among the weaker hitters, since he at least would make the lineup for most above average teams.
Last Sunday, in Chicago against the Pale Hose, Crochet knitted together a strong showing, striking out 11, while allowing one hit, one walk and one earned run. That outcome is again in play today, which makes the budding superstar a desirable building block in all formats, even with his lofty salary.
That has him currently as the second-most popular pitcher (22.9%), just behind LHP Garrett Crochet (35.9%) on DraftKings. The matchup still has him rating as the third-most represented arm (12.9%) on the blue site, so he is not exactly sneaky there either. If you want to be sneaky on Yahoo, then just don’t play him, which is crazy considering how good the weather and matchup are, for a minimum salaried hurler.
The Rockies are without Thairo Estrada and oft-injured Kris Bryant, with Ezequiel Tovar (hip) day-to-day and Brenton Doyle (quad) away from the team on the bereavement list. The projected lineup has nearly a 25% strikeout rate against lefties and a sub-.100 ISO, which includes Coors Field production.
Temperatures are going to be in the low-40s, with a light 7-to-12 mph breeze pushing towards left field. Watching the game on television is going to be a far more comfortable experience than being in person on this ice box of an afternoon.
That has him currently as the second-most popular pitcher (22.9%), just behind LHP Garrett Crochet (35.9%) on DraftKings. The matchup still has him rating as the third-most represented arm (12.9%) on the blue site, so he is not exactly sneaky there either. If you want to be sneaky on Yahoo, then just don’t play him, which is crazy considering how good the weather and matchup are, for a minimum salaried hurler.
The current Astros have not seen much of King, so he still has the element of surprise. While most of the regulars have a base knock against the frontline ace, it has come with a .191/.224/.319 triple-slash line, with just two extra-base hits in 47 plate appearances, accompanied by a pair of walks and 15 strikeouts.
Houston’s offense has been off to a slow start and it is clearly not the same without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. Christian Walker is a solid addition, but the team is in the bottom-quartile of the league for runs scored, though the early part of the season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays
That is why there is a major discrepancy in the Top Stack %s between the two sites, when analyzing Tampa Bay. The Rays will be taking on 38-year-old RHP Carlos Carrasco, who managed to survive against Kansas City on Monday, allowing just one solo-shot.
Of course he has ceded five total round-trippers in his 16.2 innings this season, along with five doubles and five walks. Power is an issue against hitters swinging the stick from either side of the plate, with lefties tagging him for a .216 ISO over the last season-plus. Same-handed batsmen have been even better with a .267 ISO and there is ample power in the top-half of the Tampa lineup.
It has been mentioned every time the Rays are at home and in this article, but the team is not able to play in Tropicana Field this year, with the venue suffering major damage from hurricane Milton. That has them using George Steinbrenner Field as their home park, which is also outdoors.
It is going to be nearly 90 this afternoon, though there is a stiff 10-to-15 mph breeze coming in from right field. Of course humidity is going to be in the 60%-to-65% range, which should counteract the wind.
Brandon Lowe, rookie Kameron Mizner and developing youngster Jonathan Aranda are the lefties to target. Junior Caminero has flashed power in right-right-matchups and of course Yandy Diaz is never an easy out, while also managing to end up on first base through a myriad of ways.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Athletics
In college, Patrick played for Purdue Northwest, in the Great Lakes Intercollegiate League (yeah, I had never heard of it either), for four seasons, before being a fourth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft, going to Arizona. The Diamondbacks traded him to Oakland, who then sent him to Milwaukee last year, which he spent at Triple-A Nashville. Control has been an issue, with the 26-year-old allowing at least three walks per nine innings at most stops.
The A’s are in the top-10 for home runs, but only the middle of the pack when it comes to total bases and runs scored. Going against a pitcher like Patrick, who hands out free-passes is a bonus and could lead to runners actually being on base when the inevitable longball occurs.
Look to the usual suspects in Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler and catcher Shea Langoliers, with the hop that the back-door-four will at least avoid three-up, three-down situations.
Atlanta is facing RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson and getting an abundance of attention. San Diego is in Houston against RHP Hayden Wesneski which is an interesting matchup, with San Francisco also on the short-list in Anaheim, against RHP Kyle Hendricks. Even with an eight-team player pool, the late-slate provides many potential paths to profitability.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Chase Dollander’s under 4.5 strikeouts prop tonight, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Dollander the best prospect in the Colorado system, ranking inside the top 20 on most industry lists. He was the ninth selection overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, spending one season at Georgia Southern and then two with the University of Tennessee. Though his only four innings at Triple-A came this season, he is pro ready as a 23-year-old. Tonight will be his third start in The Show and second at Coors Field.
The fire-baller has 13 strikeouts in 10.2 innings but is “announcing his presence with authority” has come at the cost of four home runs. The Nationals do not have an abundance of power, but there are enough Washington bats with pop to move the needle at altitude. The projected lineup has a 17.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last season and an above-average 8.5% walk rate. Ideally, the team will be able to have Dollander burn through his pitch count before he notches five strikeouts.
