MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Early and Main Slate Contrarian Stacks (June 21)

Saturday brings wall-to-wall baseball, with a variety of slates and start times. The featured-tournaments are built around the six evening games, starting at 7:15 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, the best way to find top MLB DFS picks is via Stokastic’s industry-leading tools and MLB DFS projections to figure out how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and build strong daily fantasy baseball lineups top to bottom. The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool loves both sides of the Coors Field Extravaganza on the featured-slate, with Wrigley Field looking ripe for offense this afternoon. There are no “true aces” going today, which makes for some fun decision points with RHPs Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Grant Holmes and Jose Berrios standing out on the various slates.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 21

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

In his last start, Cease allowed six runs in five innings on the road in Dodgers Stadium. He did have nine strikeouts and in his prior start, also against Los Angeles, he blanked the boys in blue for seven innings and racked up 11 whiffs. In the preceding four games, he allowed three runs in each, with a strong 27 strikeouts in 21.2 innings, with just six walks and a trio of taters.

Overall in this six-game span, Cease has a 4.81 ERA, though his 2.60 FIP and 2.66 xFIP indicating he was somewhat unlucky. The most important part for DFS gamers is that the 29-year-old frontline starter has 12.56 strikeouts per nine innings in this stretch.

Keep in mind this is a late-afternoon start in San Diego, with game time temperatures in the low-70s, accompanied by a 10-to-15 mph wind out to right-field, which will enhance lefty power. Of course that is only first baseman Vinnie “Pasquatch” Pasquantino and young prospect Jac Caglianone. Kansas City does not proffer a lot of strikeout opportunities, with the projected lineup having an 18.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, with only three hitters striking out above league average.

In Anaheim, RHP Jose Soriano will be facing the Houston Astros, with their mostly right-handed lineup. The ‘Stros do not strikeout much (18.2%) against right-handed pitching this season, though the projected lineup has a shaky .135 ISO. Soriano does not make a lot of his own magic at the plate and while he has notched 18 strikeouts in his last two outings, he only had 13 total in the five prior to that.

Holmes is in good form right now, having struck out 15 Rockies on Sunday and last Tuesday, he tallied nine punchouts in Milwaukee. Since the beginning of May, the 29-year-old has made nine starts, seeing a mix of good offenses (Arizona, LA Dodgers, Milwaukee and San Diego), while also getting a few sketchy ones (Colorado, Washington and Boston twice).

Across these 51.1 innings, he has a 3.68 ERA, 3.89 FIP and a 2.78 xFIP. This is accompanied by a lofty 11.57 strikeouts per nine, though to his credit he has 10.44 per nine on the season.

The main worries this afternoon will be mitigating the left-handed duo of Jesus Sanchez and Kyle Stowers, along with catcher Agustin Ramirez. It is likely that the roof at LoanDepot Park will be closed, which is a bonus for pitchers.

Quick notes on the other early options include Gray having strikeout upside against the Reds, with the projected lineup having a hefty 27.5% K-rate against right-handed hurlers this season. This is accompanied by a .186 ISO, though a fair portion of that was earned in the cozy confines of the Great American Ballpark.

Berrios of course is the bane of the DFS world, since he never seems to perform as expected, in good or bad matchups. For the eighth time in the last nine seasons, he has a 4.00 ERA or better, though the Phillies just got him for six runs in Philadelphia on Sunday. This season, the 31-year-old has had a slight rebound on his strikeouts, from 19.4% to 20.9%, though it is still well below his career rate.

The White Sox have 18 runs in their last three games, though in the preceding seven, they had only 17 runs. Aside from Colorado, Chicago has the worst offense in the league and of course they set all sorts of records for futility last year.

Wrapping things up with Schmidt, the Baltimore offense is better suited to take on right-handed pitching, though the projected lineup has a 22.4% strikeout rate this season against righties, which plays to Schmidt’s strength.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Contrarian Target: Washington Nationals

Arizona ace, RHP Merrill Kelly has a strong personal history against the current Colorado hitters, and while the 36-year-old has solid traditional stats, he has allowed four earned runs in three of his last five appearances. For the home team, LHP Carson Palmquist has had a rough go, with the rookie struggling both at elevation and on the road.

In Philadelphia, game-time temperatures will be in the mid-80s, with 50%-to-55% humidity and a nice 8-to-12 mph breeze out to right field at Citizens Bank Park. Rookie RHP Mick Abel will be leading the hometown nine, while RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning is toeing the rubber for the Mets. Look to the usual suspects from both sides, with a nod to the lefties as tiebreakers. Los Angeles also profiles well against RHP Jake Irvin, giving ample options for main stacks.

Last night, Washington was pesky, pushing the Dodgers to the brink in a 6-5 loss. Lefty Clayton Kershaw had five solid innings, ceding two solo shots, though it is key to remember that the Nationals are much better against right-handed hurlers. Tonight it will be RHP Dustin May on the mound, which is an intriguing matchup to analyze. May was a top-prospect, arriving on the scene in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season as a top-15 league-wide talent. His flowing red locks earned him some fun nicknames, including Gingergaard as a nod to then ace Noah Syndergaard as well as the Ginger Hammer.

Sadly he tore his UCL in 2021 and then a back issue cost him a chunk of the 2022 season, then in 2023 he re-injured his UCL and missed the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and also a torn esophagus, which required another surgical procedure. In these four year, May logged a total of 101 innings, costing him a chunk of his prime.

Modeling for May’s strikeouts has been all over the place, depending on the inputs and timeframes used by the various systems. Some have been pretty aggressive and approaching 10 strikeouts per nine innings, though most have been tempered back to around a strikeout per inning. That still seems a little high, with those taking victory laps for his 36 strikeouts in 28.1 May frames, falling silent as he has notched only nine in his 17 June starts.

Washington’s best hitters are all lefties, with CJ Abrams, James Wood, Luis Garcia and journeyman Nathaniel Lowe likely to occupy the top four lineup slots tonight. The Dodgers have a solid bullpen, though they did use two of their three southpaws last night, along with closer Tanner Scott. That was the only action the southpaws had seen in the last 72 hours, so all are likely available tonight. That is only a slight knock against the Nationals, which is reasonable, since they are a complementary stack tonight.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Early Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves

It is also hot and humid in St. Louis, which means Busch Stadium will be a bit of a launching pad, favoring the Cardinals against LHP Brent Suter and the Cincinnati bullpen. The Yankees are hosting the Orioles and RHP Zach Eflin has ceded five or more runs in three of his last six starts, along with 10 round-trippers in these 35 innings.

Atlanta also looks good against RHP Eury Perez as the 22-year-old works his way back from Tommy John surgery, which cost him all of last year and the first part of this season. He made 19 starts in 2023, looking like a future ace. He is still the youngest starting pitcher in the league, so there is time for him to regain his form — it just isn’t going to happen right away.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has been locked in since returning from his knee injury, while Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna form a fierce power triad in the heart of the order. Well travelled Alex Verdugo should be providing salary savings from the two-hole this afternoon and young backstop Drake Baldwin is a strong option at catcher on DraftKings and Yahoo.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Jose Berrios under 2.5 total earned runs. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Berrios is a much maligned fantasy option, who tends to be a better “real life” pitcher. Although he gave up six runs on Sunday in Philadelphia, he did hold the Phillies to one run at the beginning of the month in Minnesota. In his 15 starts, he has faced the Phillies, Rays, Red Sox and Orioles two times each, which has created a little familiarity in the second-leg of these matchups. It has been just over a year since the 31-year-old has faced the White Sox, with only Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. having more than eight career plate appearances against him. Add in the overall pathetic two year stretch for the Pale Hose and we have an intriguing wager, with a strong 5.4% expected ROI.