MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 28
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Health has been an issue during this time frame, with the 34-year-old logging 179.1 combined innings, 55.1 coming this season. The southpaw began flashing strikeout upside in the 2018 through 2020 seasons, then injuries overshadowed everything. He should be able to produce around a strikeout per inning while doing a decent job of mitigating power, at least until the next malady occurs.
Yesterday we covered how bad the Rockies are against right-handed pitching, and they are even more dreadful against lefties. This season, Colorado has a 56 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes park factors and other variables, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100), which indicates the team is creating runs 44% less efficiently than league average against southpaws. The Rox are barely above the bottom third of the league when it comes to power, and their .128 ISO gives full credit for the Coors Field production. The team also has the second highest strikeout rate (27.7%) as well. Enjoy!
Boston is a “haves and have nots” lineup, with Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Kristian Campbell and Wilyer Abreu being a stalwart core four at the top of the order before giving way to a patchwork crew of youngsters (Marcelo Mayer), journeymen (Trevor Story and Abraham Toro) and defensively minded players (catcher Connor Wong and centerfielder Ceddanne Rafaela).
The projected lineup has a 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last year, while the bottom of the order brings almost no power, with a .120 ISO in this same timeframe.
If Peralta can mitigate the damage done by the first few batters on the card, he should be able to post a successful DFS line.
Weather is an issue with Cleveland, Detroit and Tampa Bay all carrying elevated precipitation risk on the early slate. That is likely going to elevate the popularity of Peralta, so a leverage stack or two with the key Boston batsmen is a savvy strategy as downside protection against a perilous performance by Peralta.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners
May has been a rough month for Williams, though his struggles really began in his final April appearance. Across these five starts, spanning 24.2 innings, Williams had a 7.66 ERA, 4.77 FIP and a 4.29 xFIP. While he has been a little unlucky, he is allowing significant hard contact and has struck out only 20 in this stretch.
The heart of the order for the Mariners has been smashing right-handed hitters this season, with switch-hitters Jorge Polanco and Cal Raleigh leading the way. Rowdy Tellez has been filling in for injured Luke Raley against righties, and while he is a pinch-hit risk if LHP Jose Ferrer comes in as a reliever, he can make his supporters happy on one swing of the bat.
Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez are solid in same-handed situations, and leadoff-man J.P. Crawford makes excellent contact in lefty-righty matchups.
For the Nationals, look to Nathanial Lowe, CJ Abrams and James Wood as the trio of lefties to target against Kirby. Kirby is a good pitcher, and he led the league each of the last two seasons with a miniscule one walk per nine innings over 64 starts. The 27-year-old was rocked in his season debut after missing time with a shoulder injury. He will hopefully get back on track, but considering how much contact he allows, it is a savvy strategy to disregard the low 3.5 projected run total for Washington and get after Kirby.
Early Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
It has been a rough reentry for LHP Clayton Kershaw, with the 37-year-old having allowed five runs while walking three and striking out three across two starts, spanning a combined five innings. There was a rain delay after the second inning in his last start, so the Dodgers opted to let the bullpen take over in what turned out to be a 13-inning affair.
Kershaw will be a first ballot Hall of Famer after he retires, though he can be targeted with anyone batting from the right side of the plate for the Guardians.
The Dodgers are the real prize in a matchup against potential pitchers LHP Kolby Allard and RHP Cade Smith, while RHP Slade Cecconi is dealing with a sore groin. Allard should be good for around 50 pitches, and he has gone multiple innings in half of his appearances this season. Smith is the other fresh arm, so he could be used as an opener or part of a committee after Allard as the likely bulk starter. Several sources are listing RHP Jacob Junis as the potential starter this morning; however, he threw 28 pitches last night.
Anyone who makes the Los Angeles lineup card is in play, though it would not be a surprise to see a key veteran or two get the day off, depending on who actually ends up starting for Cleveland as well as potential weather issues.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Jhonkensy Noel over 1.5 total bases, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Take the name away from Kershaw and just look at the numbers. Noel packs a wallop, and while he does not make a lot of contact, he is facing an aging lefty who is coming off of injuries — and not apex Clayton “Effing” Kershaw.
