MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 11
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Game-time temperatures will be around 80 degrees in Citi Field with a pleasant 8 to 12 mph breeze out to right field. The best hitters for the Nats swing the stick from the left side of the plate, which gives Peterson the platoon advantage over CJ Abrams, James Wood, Nathaniel Lowe and Luis Garcia. To his credit, Wood struggled in same-handed matchups during his rookie season, though he has been productive thus far this year.
Alex Call and Amed Rosario are likely to slot higher on the lineup card tonight, and while they are pesky against southpaws, that should not be enough to dissuade anyone from rostering Peterson. Do keep in mind that while Peterson has a bit of a strikeout reputation in the DFS world, he had a 20.1% combined rate over his last 866 batters faced, which has produced a mediocre 7.79 strikeouts per nine innings.
To his credit, Schwellenbach is tied for second with 10 quality starts this season in his 13 efforts. That is only one behind RHP Paul Skenes, and considering that the former Nebraska Cornhusker was the second-ranked prospect in the Atlanta system, it should not be too surprising he is keeping this lofty company.
Milwaukee has been in the bottom quartile against right-handed pitching this season with a 92 wRC+ and a low .133 ISO. The team is average when it comes to strikeouts with a 21.0% rate and above average with a 10.1% walk rate, though this has not transpired into runs.
Lefty Jake Bauers has been better than last year, and two-time batting champion and former MVP Christian Yelich has also found success. The rest of the key contributors are slumping, however: William Contreras, Brice Turang, Rhys Hoskins and Sal Frelick are all making good contact but producing little in the way of power.
Other options for the early slate include RHP Ben Brown and the Chicago Cubs in Philadelphia facing the Phillies frontline starter LHP Jesus Luzardo. Both players are talented and have strikeout upside, but the respective offenses are among the best in the league.
Enigmatic LHP Nick Lodolo is in Cleveland, which gets him out of Great American Ballpark, but it is never fun going against the Guardians. This afternoon will be the 61st start for the 27-year-old who has dealt with injuries in each of his previous three campaigns. His strikeout stuff has not been consistent, but game-to-game variance is understandable as he continues to find his sea legs.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Texas Rangers
Texas has struggled on offense, while the Rangers pitching staff has dealt with injuries. The team has a glimmer of hope as it is on a three-game winning streak, three games below .500 and only 4.5 games behind Houston in the American League West. Tonight RHP David Festa will be making his fifth start of the season. He is a top pitching prospect for the Twins, but the results have been rocky aside from a wicked 10.89 strikeouts per nine innings in his 81 frames in The Show. The 25-year-old is equally adept against righties and lefties, with a 27.8% combined strikeout rate across 352 batters faced.
After being banished to the bottom of the order, Marcus Semien has been on a heater, regaining the cleanup slot. Over the last 10 games, he had three home runs, three doubles and three stolen bases with a video game-like .485/.564/.848 triple-slash line. Corey Seager is healthy for the time being, and with Josh Smith and Wyatt Langford, the Rangers have a potent top of the order.
Jake Burger and Evan Carter are adequate options who can be used for differentiation purposes. Carter is the better salary relief option, particularly on Yahoo ($11) as he will not take up a first base slot.
Early Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Angels
Sears allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four appearances, with nine total against only 11 strikeouts in 18.1 frames. That works out to a 10.31 ERA, a dreadful 9.07 FIP and 5.76 xFIP. It was actually the Halos who kicked off this dismal stretch of games with six runs and four round-trippers against Sears three weeks ago.
Mike Trout has struggled mightily over the last two seasons with a .191 wOBA and .033 ISO in 35 plate appearances against southpaws. Throughout his career, he has been one of the best hitters in the game against lefties, so it seems foolish to skip him for stacks, though it would provide immediate differentiation from the rest of the field. Zach Neto, Taylor Ward and Jorge Soler are the trio to target, with Logan O’Hoppe a fine backstop option on DraftKings and Yahoo. Jo Adell is also in play, as he has tremendous power — when he can actually get his bat on the ball.
In San Diego, the Padres will be going against LHP Justin Wrobleski, who is expected to be called up for a spot start. In his three other outings in The Show this season, he struggled with a 7.20 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and a pedestrian 13 strikeouts, accompanied by a trio of taters in 15 innings. The 11th-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft barely cracked the top-25 prospect list for the Dodgers, so it is no surprise he is struggling at the highest level. He has been decent at Triple-A, but it looks like he is best suited as a long reliever.
In turn, the Dodgers will get a crack at RHP Randy Vasquez, who is surviving by luck only. The 26-year-old has made 13 starts, and though he has 4.83 walks per nine innings that are almost as high as his 5.26 strikeouts per nine, he has somewhat survived with a 3.69 ERA. The advanced metrics tell a truer story, with his 5.84 xERA, 5.35 FIP and 5.69 xFIP all portending for him to get lit up soon. Most damning is his 6.7% swinging-strike rate that is barely more than half of his 11.4% barrel rate. Enjoy!
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Wrobleski projects for just over three strikeouts today, but as detailed above, he has a tough matchup against the Padres in San Diego and he has shown a propensity for allowing power. That could help lead to a shortened outing, which would in turn give him less opportunities to record four strikeouts.
