MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 26
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Philadelphia is only slightly above average on offense with two-time MVP Bryce Harper (wrist) on the shelf, though the slugger is likely to be cleared for action this weekend. The projected lineup for the Phillies has a 19.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season, but Kyle Schwarber (28.4%), Brandon Marsh (28.5%) and Otto Kemp (27.3%) all whiff well above league average.
This won’t be a walk in the park for Brown; however, it is important to note that the Phillies have the lowest projected team total on the slate. LHP Cristian Sanchez has tournament consideration against the Astros (3.9 implied run total), though Houston is among the best in the league versus southpaws (130 wRC+). Next up would be RHP Kevin Gausman against Cleveland (23.6% strikeout rate against RHPs this season for the projected lineup), as his sizable discount when compared to Brown is appealing. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers are wrapping up a series in Coors Field with a 7.3 team total.
Way back in the 2017 MLB Draft, the New York Yankees chose RHP Janson Junk in the 22nd round after three seasons at Seattle University, which is not exactly a college baseball hotbed. Junk was subsequently traded to the Los Angeles Angels, then the Milwaukee Brewers, who designated him for assignment just before the 2024 trade deadline. Houston picked up the erstwhile ace, only to release him after four starts for the Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys. Oakland grabbed him two days later, then immediately designated him for assignment after he allowed six hits and two walks with no outs against Seattle.
While he has been the Crash Davis of pitchers, Junk at least picked up a lot of experience. This includes 601 innings in the minors, but the majority was at Triple-A, as Junk has just not able to get a break to stick in The Show, getting 67.1 innings, with appearances each of the last five seasons.
The projected lineup for the Giants benefits from having Rafael Devers, but over the last season and change, this collective group has a 23.3% strikeout rate and a semi-adequate.149 ISO against right-handed hurlers. Again, this is about salary relief, and with Junk likely capped around 75 pitches, keep expectations in line.
On the other side of this matchup, RHP Hayden Birdsong is in play for the home team with the Marlins putting out a “haves and have nots” lineup. Jesus Sanchez, Liam Hicks, Agustin Ramirez and Kelly Stowers are competent hitters, though most would be populating the back half of playoff contending lineups. Stowers, Connor Norby and Dane Myers offer up strikeout opportunities, which Birdsong should be able to convert to DFS production.
Overall, Birdsong has seen a wide range of outcomes in his results, leading to him starting this season in the bullpen but ultimately earning a spot in the rotation. He had only nine innings at Triple-A last year before getting called up to The Show, so expect more learning pains from the 23-year-old hurler.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have a strong power trio with switch-hitters Cal Raleigh (.373 ISO, 230 plate appearances) and Jorge Polanco (.200 ISO, 204 PAs) doing their best work from the left side of the plate. Luke Raley is back, giving the M’s a more complete lefty option, though hat tip to Rowdy Tellez, who filled in admirably while Raley was out. Settling in a three-man stack is the way to go, with outfielders Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena the next men up for those seeking a full stack.
In his last start, RHP Emerson Hancock saw his ERA increase almost a full run when the Cubs routed him in Chicago, recording four round-trippers and nine total runs against him in just four innings of action. Despite being the sixth overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 26-year-old was barely a top-10 prospect in the Seattle farm system.
Lefties have been his kryptonite, with a .199 ISO against the last 438 batters he has faced. That has ballooned this season to a .293 ISO against 81 opposite-handed hitters, which bodes well for the Twins. Trevor Larnach (.193 ISO, 234 PAs), Matt Wallner (.240 ISO, 113 PAs) and Kody Clemens (.275 ISO, 114 PAs) are the key three. Switch-hitter Willi Castro does not have a lot of power from the left side of the plate, but he does a good job of making contact and getting on base.
Main Slate Alternate Target: Tampa Bay Rays
For DFS purposes, all we need to know is that over his last five starts, spanning 25 innings, he allowed 20 runs while striking out just 19. The five home runs are not horrible, though it does work out to 1.8 per nine innings in this timeframe. Since the start of last year, the 33-year-old has an 18.7% strikeout rate, a 46.8% hard-hit rate and only a 9.5% swinging-strikeout rate.
Look to the righties with power for this same-handed matchup in Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero and Christopher Morel. Lefties Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda are fine as well given the hitting-friendly weather. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 90s with an 8 to 12 mph breeze out to right-center field.
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