MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Chicago has been pesky of late, with the White Sox scoring at least seven runs in six of their last nine games. The team has not faced many daunting pitchers in this stretch, but it is clear that the youngsters have not given up on the season by any stretch.
Across the last 30 days, the ChiSox have averaged 4.61 runs per game, which is right in the middle of the league during that timeframe.
Warren is having a solid rookie campaign, having been elite against same-handed batsmen with a 31.3% strikeout rate, while limiting the opposition to a .117 ISO. Lefties have been his kryptonite, with only a 20.6% strikeout rate and an abysmal .185 ISO.
There is going to be a lot of leverage available by going against Warren, with veteran outfielders Mike Tauchman and Andrew Benintendi, along with youngsters Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero who will also have the platoon-advantage.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that most sports books have Warren with between +115 and +125 to have more than 5.5 strikeouts tonight, with his over 4.5 strikeouts currently at -160 to -180.
Veteran RHP Aaron Nola is at home against a scuffling Atlanta squad, with the 32-year-old looking sharp in his last start against Washington. He had missed nearly three months with ankle and rib injuries and in his return, he ran into a buzzsaw giving up six runs in 6.1 innings to the Nationals. Nola had 10 strikeouts in these 8.1 innings and he logged 97 pitches on Saturday, so he should be in line for a full workload against the Braves.
Most of the regulars for Atlanta have seen plenty of Nola, with these teams battling for the National League East. It is worth noting that Michael Harris II and Matt Olson each have 30-plus at bats against Nola, with Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies over 60 at bats.
The third option on the featured-slate is RHP Clay Holmes, in New York against the Miami Marlins. The main knock against Holmes is a lack of strikeout upside, as evidenced by his four, four, four, six, three, two and three in his last seven appearances. The 32-year-old has ceded only one home run in these 34 innings and for the season, he is just outside the top-25 with a 3.26 ERA.
Miami does not offer up much in the way of strikeouts, with the projected lineup having a tremendous 15.9% strikeout rate this season, even lower than Holmes’ 18.6% rate. The Marlins do not have a lot of power, so if Holmes is able to mitigate youngsters Agustin Ramirez, Heriberto Hernandez and Jakob Marsee, he should be able to close out the fifth inning and be in position to qualify for the win bonus, as long as the Mets have put up some runs.
In the opening game, LHP Garrett Crochet is in Baltimore, taking on the Batters of Birdland. Crochet has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his last 12 starts and he is right behind reigning and current favorite LHP Tarik Skubal (-125 vs. +100) for the American League Cy Young Award. Current Orioles have seen Crochet for only 14 at bats, so he will have unfamiliarity on his side.
For those in need of a solid SP2 at a reasonable salary on DraftKings and Yahoo, RHP Jason Alexander will be facing a Colorado squad that has been shut out in three of the last five games, while scoring one and five runs in the other two. Alexander is having a nice moment, though the 32-year-old entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2017, after having spent time with three different colleges.
He got a cup of coffee in 2022 with Milwaukee, making 18 appearances, including 11 starts for a decimated rotation. He bounced around the minors with the Red Sox and Athletics, who gave him a chance as a reliever in late-April, prior to designating him for assignment in May. The Astros picked him up off waivers when he was eligible and the pitching-starved team has been rewarded with half a dozen solid starts.
The main reason to consider Alexander is of course getting to face the Rockies, which continue to be one of the worst offenses in the league by pretty much every metric, yadda, yadda, yadda.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Mets
The 25-year-old is expected to start tonight, making only his second appearance this season for the Marlins. He has been toiling away in Triple-A with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, posting mediocre numbers. Mazur has five different pitches he can rely on, though none are above average. His best fit in The Show will likely be as a long reliever or “bulk” option.
Though he has faced only 185 big league batters since the start of last season, he has been knocked around with a .224 ISO, with hitters from both sides of the plate producing a .200 ISO or better. This is accompanied by a 14.6% strikeout rate, with a dreadful 13.5% walk rate and while it is a small sample, nothing has happened in the minors this season to suggest there will be much of a change.
Literally everyone landing on the Mets lineup card is in play, save for backup catcher Luis Torrens. Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo are the priority plays, with Brett Baty, Jeff McNeil, Mark Vientos and Cedric Mullins comprising the second tier.
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Aside from Alvarez, who is one of the best in the game when facing fellow-lefties, Houston is expected to have a mostly right-handed lineup. Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are the trio to target at the top, with catcher Yanier Diaz a strong play on Yahoo and DraftKings, to fulfill the pesky catcher requirement. From the bottom of the order, Cam Smith and Chas McCormick provide discounted differentiation and further uniqueness can be obtained by skipping slugger Christian Walker, who has surprisingly been below average with the platoon-advantage over the last two-plus seasons.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Austin Wells to hit one out of the park tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Be sure to understand the rules of your book of choice, since there is a chance Austin Wells is not in the starting lineup. Most books will void the wager if players are not in the starting lineup, though some like FanDuel will not and count a pinch-hit opportunity as a live bet.
