MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
While we should not expect a reprisal of that start — which was six innings, one unearned run and six strikeouts — it is a solid mid-range outcome. The Angels have plenty of pop against right-handed hurlers, with the projected lineup having a collective .194 ISO this season in such situations. The lineup also has a 23.4% strikeout rate, and five batsmen strike out 25% or more of the time. Switch-hitter Yoan Moncada is not far behind with a 24.2% strikeout rate when swinging the stick from the left side of the plate.
The three hitters who do not strike out frequently are lacking power, which is still a tradeoff that is positive for Eovaldi. That trio includes first baseman Nolan Schanuel (12.0% strikeout rate, .138 ISO, 343 plate appearances), along with switch-hitters Luis Rengifo (17.4%, .075 ISO, 304 PAs) and Gustavo Campero (12.9%, .120 ISO, 31 PAs), who is filling in for the injured Jorge Soler.
Woo remains efficient with his 14.35 pitches per inning ranking third among all qualified rotation regulars. This has enabled the third-year starter to close out the sixth inning in all 18 of his appearances, trailing league leader Framber Valdez (16) by just one quality start. The 25-year-old carries a hefty cap hit for playing in the offense-friendly Sutter Health Park, with game-time temperatures a little cooler than the last homestand in West Sacramento, sliding through the mid- to upper 70s in Woo’s pitching window.
RHP Jose Soriano debuted as a reliever for Anaheim in 2023, logging 42 strong innings over 38 appearances and a stellar 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings. Last year the Halos moved him into the rotation, and he traded off his strikeouts (7.73 per nine) for an increase in ground balls from a strong 51.0% rate to an elite 59.7% rate.
This season, he has taken a leap to a 67.5% ground ball rate, which is rarified air, leading all starting pitchers, including fellow lefties Valdez (60.3%) and Cristopher Sanchez (58.0%). Of course, Soriano is nowhere near the strikeout producer this duo is, though that also is reflected in his salary.
Texas is in the bottom third of the league for runs scored this season at 4.12 runs per game, though the Rangers were resurgent over the last 30 days with 5.75 per tilt, which was the second most during this timeframe.
The team has faced Soriano twice already this season, with the most recent being three weeks ago when Eovaldi was the opposing starter. Texas plated eight runners in 9.2 combined innings. The first game back in mid-April, the Rangers had 10 hits, which was a career worst for Soriano, and in the last meeting, they got him for a career-high-tying five walks.
This is too small of a sample size to indicate that the Rangers have exposed Soriano, but it is a reminder that even with his splendiferous ground ball rate, he has walk issues and not enough strikeout upside to work himself out of jams. Last year, he did not allow more than four earned runs in any game; this year he gave up eight, seven and five (three times) while still managing a strong 3.79 ERA, supported by a 4.02 xERA, 3.58 FIP and 3.53 xFIP.
In summary, there is merit to stacking against both Woo and Soriano for direct leverage against the field. The clear options against Soriano are Corey Seager Marcus Semien, Josh Smith and Wyatt Langford. For the A’s, the top 5 in the order are the most worrisome hitters for Woo, including rookie Nick Kurtz, slugger Brent Rooker, catcher Shea Langeliers, and lefty outfielders Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: New York Yankees
Even with Aaron Judge on the injured list, the entire projected lineup for New York has a collective .203 ISO against right-handed hurlers this season, with only Anthony Volpe (.187 ISO, 301 PAs) and switch-hitter Jasson Dominguez (.170 ISO, 241 PAs) falling short of a .200 ISO this season. The tradeoff is a whopping 28.0% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers, though that is not much help for RHP Zack Littell, who has a 16.3% combined strikeout rate this season, well shy of his merely average 21.5% strikeout rate last year.
There are no bad clicks with the Bronx Bombers since even catcher Austin Wells has value on DraftKings and Yahoo, helping fill the required backstop slot.
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
The only category where Martinez is above average is with his walk rate, though that is only because he allows so much contact and lacks any sort of consistent strikeout stuff. On a fun note, the Dodgers are not on the schedule each of the next three Thursdays, and the team has indicated that Shohei Ohtani will be starting the next three Wednesdays with no hard cap on his pitch count. That does not help DFS gamers since the only site that ever offered the two-way player as both a pitcher and a batter on the same slate went dormant almost four years ago. If Ohtani is tired and the Dodgers have a commanding lead in any of these games, it would not be a shock if he were a late-inning pinch-hit candidate, more for rest purposes and injury prevention than anything else.
Mookie Betts has struggled at the plate this season against same-handed hurlers, though this is reflected in his salary cap hit. He has been outstanding at shortstop, which is probably more important for this loaded lineup, but leaving him off of stacks is a quick path towards differentiation.
Freddie Freeman, Andy Pages and catcher Will Smith have all had strong production against right-handed pitchers and profile well against the offerings of Martinez. Teoscar Hernandez and Michael Conforto have struggled with contact, though each has power against righties and Martinez has one of the highest contact rates in the league.
Seattle’s best hitters against lefties are concentrated with the trio of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and amazing switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh, who leads the league in round-trippers and is the reigning Home Run Derby champion. New first baseman Josh Naylor is solid in lefty-lefty matchups, and platoon specialist Dylan Moore offers salary relief.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Five of the projected hitters in the Washington lineup have a sub-16% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers, with only catcher Riley Adams (40.4%, 94 PAs) and James Wood (31.1%, 305 PAs) being the above-average strikeout candidates.
