MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 9
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
It appears that Brown has leveled-up both in the eyes of the salary algorithms and on the field, with a 10.26 strikeouts per nine innings rate, which is above his 9.87 per nine from the preceding two seasons. The walks are also down to 2.09 per nine, from 3.18, though his propensity to challenge hitters fearlessly, does lead to a few extra-base hits.
The real surprise for the 26-year-old is a solid 50%-plus groundball rate, which gives him the ability to become a top-20 ace.
In a baseball being baseball moment, the White Sox put up three runs on Brown, in Chicago, for his “worst” game of the year. In the six preceding starters, he allowed just five “Ernies” and one unearned run. This will be just his third home start, which of course means that the Cincinnati Reds are not enjoying the homer-happy Great American SMALLpark.
For those needing perspective and measurement against his peers, Brown ranks third with an 0.88 WHIP, fifth with a 1.67 ERA and he is in the top-10 for strikeouts, with nine in each of his last three games.
Surprise will also be on the side of Brown, who has a .167/.211/.167 triple-slash line in 18 at bats against the current Cinci roster.
Across 81 starts with Seattle, the 32-year-old has a 111 ERA+, a 3.73 FIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine. Toronto has just 26 home runs this season, which is the second-fewest in the league and the Blue Jays have the sixth-fewest total bases. The flipside is that they also have the third-fewest strikeouts on the season, though aside from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and former Baltimore batsman Anthony Santander, the team does not have many worrisome bats.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies will be in Cleveland, taking on RHP Gavin Williams, who was a prospect of note a couple years ago. Injuries slowed down the development trajectory for Williams, who can rack up the strikeouts. Of course, he also hands out walks and facilitates home runs. Across his last four games, in Toronto and Baltimore, at home against Minnesota and the New York Yankees, Williams has gone 19 innings with 10.9 strikeouts, 6.2 walks and 2.4 home runs per nine innings. He has a 6.16 ERA that is in line with his 6.14 FIP and has been giving up power to batsmen from both sides of the plate.
Williams will have surprise on his side, with the current Phillies having a total of 20 at bats against him, but even if that works it will not help him a second time through the lineup. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber lead the way of course, though Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Max Kepler and catcher J.T. Realmuto make this a lineup that is quite malleable for stacking purposes. Several Phillies have the green light on the basepaths, including Turner with eight steals, Stott with seven and Harper has been a surprise swiping six bags, after only six last year and 29 over the preceding three seasons.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Athletics
The assessment for RHP Will Warren is similar to Williams above, though Warren does have the better upside potential. The former 8th round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft has just 51.1 innings in The Show, so he is getting some on the job training. To his credit, he has a decent mid-90s fastball, with a couple of secondary pitches, which should afford him to be a middle of the rotation starter. The strikeouts are there, but the walks and power are going to need to come down, which they could as he continues to improve his groundball rate.
Since the start of last year, Warren has allowed a .203 ISO in 144 matchups with opposite-handed hitters, while fellow righties have tattooed him for a .250 ISO in 99 plate appearances. The A’s bring the lumber from both sides of the dish, creating a potential nightmare scenario in West Sacramento. Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday and catcher Shea Langeliers all have elite power, with young Jacob Wilson becoming a decent contact hitter. It is mindboggling that veteran Miguel Andujar and his .103 ISO continues to be entrenched in the middle of the order, though at least he puts the ball in play.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Bryse Wilson’s under 3.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Wilson has been working as a reliever, though the former Atlanta starter recorded 89 pitches in his last appearances for the White Sox. This game is in Chicago, which is more hitting friendly than Miami, with the Marlins carrying a solid 17.7% strikeout rate for their projected lineup, since the start of last year. Models have Wilson with around 3.7 strikeouts and he had four in his last game. It is crucial to get this wager at +111 or better, with the DraftKings’s +120 line mathing out to a 4.3% expected ROI.
