MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP Hunter Brown + Which Stack?! (July 8)

Tuesday brings a humdinger, with a hefty 13-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As we dig around for the MLB DFS picks for today, leaning on Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the best way to find value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using smart, +ROI tools is vital.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Atlanta Braves and Athletics stand out in West Sacramento, while the Boston Red Sox are facing another subpar lefty. On the pitching front, Hunter Brown does not have any weather worries, easily pushing him front and center as the priority play.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

St. Louis is probably OK; however, we will want to confirm that there is a nice clear window before rolling out RHP Sonny Gray against the Washington Nationals. Houston has no worries with the retractable roof, which is a key reason we can utilize RHP Hunter Brown as a foundational building block on Tuesday.

Brown is in the midst of a career year, holding opposing offenses to two or fewer runs in 15 of his 17 starts. He is also fourth with an 0.904 WHIP, third with 13 quality starts and leading the league with a 1.82 ERA. Advanced metrics? Well, he tops all qualified pitchers with a 222 ERA+, and his 2.81 xERA is outstanding, as is his 3.1 WAR, which is almost as good as his 3.2 from last year — plus he has another 13 to 15 starts to go. Finally, there is the wicked 32.0% combined strikeout rate, buoyed by an 11.9% swinging-strike rate, which has enabled him to limit opposing hitters to a .100 ISO and a steady 6.0% barrel rate.

But wait … there’s more: Cleveland is in shambles, having ended a 10-game losing streak last night, during which the Guardians were shutout five times and scored two or fewer runs in three other tilts during this span. In two weeks the team has gone from two games above .500 to seven games below, and it now trails Detroit by 15.5 games in the American League Central.

Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana profile well against Brown, but they are not really a reason to avoid the Houston hurler, nor is switch-hitting maven Jose Ramirez much of a deterrent when considering the rest of the dreadful lineup.

In that campaign he was able to collect 8.61 strikeouts per nine innings, though the now 35-year-old averaged 7.88 per nine in the subsequent season-plus.

Lugo has been stellar at run prevention, though his 2.65 ERA indicates he has been lucky when compared against his 4.41 xERA and 4.16 FIP.

So why is Lugo getting a featured recommendation? Well, he is facing a projected Pittsburgh lineup that has a sub-.100 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, along with four hitters who strike out at an above-league-average rate.

Lefties are a challenge for Lugo, though Spencer Horwitz has been inconsistent and switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds is much better against southpaws. That leaves Oneil Cruz as the only daunting batsmen, and Lugo can easily pitch around him with little punishment coming from the likes of Ke’Bryan Hayes, 37-year-old Tommy Pham, catcher Joey Bart and the defensively minded Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

For those seeking more tournament upside via strikeouts, San Francisco ace LHP Robbie Ray profiles well in a tough matchup against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies, while RHPs Nathan Eovaldi and Jose Soriano are secondary targets in Anaheim.

Soriano is very much in play as an SP2 on DraftKings ($7,300) with his cap-friendly salary. In his last five games, he closed the book on the seventh inning three times while falling one out short against Houston. In this stretch, the third-year starter had 39 strikeouts with only one home run and five doubles across 31.2 innings. There was a change in his pitch mix during this timeframe, as the 26-year-old relied more on his fastball and curve at the expense of his sinker and slider.

The Rangers did get Wyatt Langford (oblique) back from the injured list, though they also designated struggling Josh Jung back to the minors. That is a major fall from grace for the eighth overall selection in the 2019 MLB Draft since he was a key part of the 2023 World Series team, making his lone All-Star appearance while finishing fourth in the American League Rookie of the Year vote. Fellow heroes from that season, Adolis Garcia and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim, have also struggled mightily this year. There are still good hitters in the Texas lineup, but for his salary, Soriano is the key SP2 on DraftKings tonight.

Thirty-five-year-old RHP Nathan Eovaldi keeps chugging along, and he looked solid in his two starts since missing a month with right triceps inflammation. He still excels at striking out fellow righties, posting a 25.1% rate over the last season-plus, and this year he has also been very effective against lefties (26.7%). The projected Los Angeles lineup has a 27.0% strikeout rate against righties this season, with only first baseman Nolan Schanuel and switch-hitting utilityman Luis Rengifo recording below-league-average rates.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves

Sutter Health Park has been very offense friendly to major league hitters, and in a scheduling quirk, LHP Jeffrey Springs had 11 of his 18 appearances on the road. Despite 17.1 fewer innings at home, his splits show the same number of home runs (eight), with the opposition scoring only one fewer run. Despite debuting back in 2018, Springs was limited to 313.2 innings in his first seven seasons, both due to injury and working as a reliever, until Tampa turned him into a starter in 2022. That was his breakout year as a 29-year-old, though various maladies limited him to only 10 appearances in the two subsequent seasons. This year he already has 97.1 innings, which are the second most of his career, but now he is more of an innings-eater than anything else. The surface numbers are OK; however, he also has 10 unearned runs already.

Atlanta has Jurickson Profar back from his suspension, and the day-to-day lineup is incredibly deep with no easy outs. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley are all strong plays, as are Marcell Ozuna and Profar. Former A’s catcher Sean Murphy has been locked in against lefties, with a massive .316 ISO in 66 plate appearances this year. That still leaves Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, which goes to show the embarrassment of riches now that everyone is available for Atlanta.

The Athletics are also in play against RHP Didier Fuentes, who at 20 years old has now supplanted RHP Eury Perez as the youngest starting pitcher in the league. This will be the fourth appearance for the rookie who is the third-ranked prospect for Atlanta and on most of the top-100 lists around the industry. He has struggled, which is no surprise since his expected arrival date was not until 2027, and with just 26.1 combined innings at Double-A and Triple-A before being called up, he needs more seasoning.

The fastball has been terrific in the 96 to 97 mph range, though command and control, along with the last of a solid secondary pitch, can only work so long against big league bats. Injuries to Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver and Reynaldo Lopez have forced Atlanta to give the kid a chance, but it was clearly not the preferred path for his learning curve.

Look to the lefties with power, focusing on Lawrence Butler, Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom as the first wave of A’s. Rookie All-Star Jacob Wilson, catcher Shea Langeliers and slugger Brent Rooker can be used to fill in the gaps for full stacks while also being solid one-offs on the late slate.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Main Slate Alternative Target: Boston Red Sox

Nate Eaton should be leading off, and though Marcelo Mayer is likely to replace him when a right-handed reliever enters the game, he is the punt du jour on DraftKings ($2,500), FanDuel ($2,300) and Yahoo ($9). Rob Refsnyder is likely to be in the cleanup slot again, making him a desirable option, even though he is a pinch-hit candidate as well.

Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story and catcher Carlos Narvaez can be used to round out full stacks, and on a fun note, Ceddanne Rafaela homered in three straight games from the nine-hole, putting up a stellar .328/.349/.770 triple-slash line in the last 16 games that is the envy of the team. The heater will end at some point, but it doesn’t have to be tonight.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Jeffrey Springs under 5.5 total hits allowed. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Springs was covered in detail for DFS purposes above, though the analysis transfers to this wager as well. There is no doubt he is a gamer and embraces his crafty-lefty talents. Six hits are a lot, and while Springs projects for 5.6 allowed, he ceded six or more in three of his last 12 appearances, with three other games resulting in five hits. He had 21 walks in this timeframe, so the hope is he will have a few early and then the Atlanta boppers can connect on a couple longballs and put up crooked numbers, pushing Springs to the showers early.