MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Over his last three starts, Glasnow has increased his pitch count from 100, to 105 and a season high 108 last Sunday. There is no need to push him too hard tonight, though manager Dave Roberts is likely to at least give him a baseline of five innings and 90ish throws. The Dodgers are unlikely to catch Philadelphia for the second seed in the National League, which means they are likely to host either the San Diego Padres or New York Mets in the Wild Card round, beginning on Tuesday, Sep. 30.
San Francisco is not eliminated from the playoffs yet, but they have a tough path trailing the Mets by four games in the Wild Card standings, with the Cincinnati Reds (2 games) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (3 games) also ahead of them.
In summary, both teams will clearly be putting out their best lineups tonight, though there is no real incentive for Roberts to push Glasnow if he is struggling or inefficient.
The Cleveland Guardians have been surging, winning eight-straight games, now just 1.5 games out of the Wild Card slot and trailing New York by 3.5 games. Houston is hosting Seattle, with the Mariners having a one game lead for the American League West after a 4-0 victory against the ‘Stros last night. This means the Yankees cannot afford any missteps and the team will be highly motivated to keep winning games.
Rodon has been chugging along and across his last eight starts, he is averaging a tick over 100 pitches and 5.8 innings.
The O’s will be running out a mostly right-handed card tonight, though the collective projected lineup will have seven hitters with a 25% or higher strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
It is hard to be overly concerned with the likes of Jorge Mateo, Luis Vazquez and Alex Jackson providing a potential three-up, three-down spot at the bottom of the order.
There are some weather concerns in Chicago as the White Sox host the San Diego Padres and RHP Yu Darvish. The 39-year-old hurler has been mediocre at best this season, but he provides salary relief as an SP2 on DraftKings ($7,400) and Yahoo ($37).
LHP Framber Valdez and RHP George Kirby are squaring off in front of the Crawford boxes, but neither is overly appealing against the respective offenses. That does elevate them for tournaments, since most gamers will be making the same assessment, which has both players currently underrepresented in tournaments. Valdez would be the preferred choice when choosing this road less travelled.
In Texas, the Rangers are hosting the Miami Marlins, who have been pesky, but RHP Jack Leiter has flashed real talent this season. Texas is all but eliminated from the postseason having dropped five in a row, but the team is still technically alive, trailing Houston by five games for the final Wild Card slot.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Yankees
The key Yankee boppers are spendy on DraftKings, but outfielder Trent Grisham ($4,500), catcher/first baseman Ben Rice ($4,400) and third baseman Ryan McMahon ($3,300) are the thrifty trio to target tonight. Each has the platoon-advantage over RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, who has allowed seven home runs in his last four starts. The 35-year-old MLB “rookie” has been adequate as a back of the rotation starter, posting a 4.39 ERA and 1.321 WHIP, though his 100 strikeouts in 149.2 innings leaves a lot to be desired.
Tonight will be Sugano’s 29th start, which will set a new personal-high. “Tommy Sugar” had a strong career in the NPB, being an eight-time All-Star, three-time Central League MVP: and in 2018 he won the pitching triple crown, while also pitching a no-hitter in the playoffs. This will be his third time facing the Yankees, with the most recent start exactly three months ago.
Tune in to Stokastic’s MLB Live Before Lock at 6:30 p.m. ET tonight, to see how the Yankees stacks are projecting to be represented in the large-field tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: San Diego Padres
The season began with RHP Yoendrys Gomez reprising his role with the Yankees, though he was designated for assignment in late-April after pedestrian performance. The Dodgers claimed him after the two-day waiting period, giving him three looks before waiving him, with the White Sox claiming the baseball nomad four days later. Chicago sent him to Triple-A after a couple of relief appearances, with the plan of stretching him out as a starter. He was recalled in mid-August and has made six starts since.
Gomez pitches to contact, which is not great for a reliever, but it can be a path to eating innings for a bad team as a starter. Across 285 MLB batters faced, Gomez has a 20.7% strikeout rate, an abysmal 11.9% walk rate and he is allowing a combined .166 ISO. The San Diego lineup is loaded with contact hitters, with only Ramon Laureano (26.2%, 317 plate appearances) and Jackson Merrill (23.5%, 289 PAs) striking out more than 20.5% of the time.
That duo has elite power, as do Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. That still leaves Gavin Sheets, Ryan O’Hearn and Jake Cronenworth, plus three-time batting champion Luis Arraez holding the platoon-advantage and all profiling well against Gomez’s pitching portfolio. The Chicago bullpen is average at best, counting on retreads such as Tyler Alexander, Cam Booser, Tyler Gilbert and Steven Wilson, who are all on the wrong side of 30.
Sheets, O’Hearn and Cronenworth are all sub-$4,000 on DraftKings. This trio is likely to be hitting in consecutive spots in the back of the order, providing maximum synergistic upside. None is a pinch hit risk and the only real cost is using up the first base slot.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Javier Assad to record under 3.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
In his six five starts this season, Assad has collected two, three, four, one and four strikeouts. His most recent appearance was 2.1 innings as a reliever, notching one whiff. Assad does a decent job at inducing groundballs with a 44.5% rate over the last two seasons, though his strikeout rate slipped from 19.3% last year to 12.9% this year in limited action. He does not get much in the way of swing and misses with a 6.6% swinging strike rate against his last 757 batters faced.
