MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
It is going to be in the mid-70s at Dodger Stadium tonight, with a light 6-to-9 mph breeze to right field and 55%-to-66% humidity, giving a slight nod to the offenses. Tonight is the fifth start of the year for Snell, who missed four months with shoulder inflammation, landing on the injured list after his second outing of the season. He had pitch counts of 86 and 90 in his two August appearances, going five innings in each.
His 18 strikeouts in this stretch is truly impressive and he has had solid success against the current active roster for the Padres, though three of his last five seasons he did pitch for San Diego, which does decrease the opportunities for his former teammates to face him in action.
Considering batter versus pitcher history should not be a strong factor in the overall determination for a particular matchup, though it is still interesting to glance at for perspective. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts have been effective in the past with Cease, though that is not really a surprise for the trio of MVPs. Struggling Michael Conforto also has had some success against Cease, but considering his current form, it would be a bonus for the strikeout artist if Conforto were in the lineup tonight.
Strikeouts of course are the currency of the realm for MLB DFS and Cease has been outstanding with a whopping 30.8% K-rate, up slightly from his impressive 29.1% last season. Walks have been a bit of an issue over the last five games, with 11 in his 26 innings. Of course, ceding only two home runs, while also collecting 40 strikeouts can erase a lot of doubts.
Other potential pitching candidates include LHP Max Fried in St. Louis, against a Cardinals team that has dropped the last three games and posted a 10-15 record since the All-Star Break. Over the last 30 days, the Redbirds have the fewest home runs (18) in the league and they have 10 less runs (85) than any other team. Willson Contreras has missed a couple games with a foot issue, so if he is out again, that leaves Ivan Herrera as the only worrisome hitter, despite a mostly right-handed lineup set to face the southpaw.
For those feeling bold, on the other side of this matchup, RHP Sonny Gray gets a crack at one of his former teams and the 35-year-old currently leads the National League with a 6.73 strikeouts to walks ratio. It is never fun picking on the Yankees, but New York has been in the middle of the pack on offense since the Midsummer Classic, while posting a 12-13 record.
In San Francisco, 42-year-old RHP Justin Verlander is taking on Tampa Bay, with the Rays always a frisky lineup, even outside of their hitting paradise of Steinbrenner Field. Detroit cruised to a 7-0 victory in Minnesota last night, though RHP Zebby Matthews is a potential salary saver, starting for the Twins.
Things worked out for the now 30-year-old as he joined the Kia Tigers in the KBO, helping them to win the 2024 Korean Series. That earned him an minor league contract wtih Toronto and after spring training, he accepted a role with Triple-A Buffalo. The Blue Jays moved the baseball nomad to their active roster at the end of April and Lauer has been solid since.
Throughout his career, Lauer has usually produced around a strikeout per inning, though his elevated fly ball rate and propensity to allow hard contact often led to extra-base hits and home runs.
This season, Lauer has a career-low 1.0 home runs per nine innings in his 83.0 frames, with a solid 25.0% strikeout rate. He is still walking a fine line with his 29.8% groundball and 36.1% fly ball rates, but it will be interesting to see if the meandering Texas offense is able to gain any traction against the veteran lefty.
The projected lineup for the Rangers has a 23.3% strikeout rate against southpaws this season, with six hitters whiffing well above league average. Switch-hitter Sam Haggerty typically gets spot starts as the leadoff man against lefties and he at least provides decent contact, along with young Wyatt Langford. Aside from that pair, it is the lefty-righty duo of Corey Seager and Jake Burger who have provided any consistency this season against southpaws.
In New York, RHP Bryan Woo is the other interesting option, though he has a tougher matchup than Lauer, while also commanding a much higher premium. Woo continues to lead all qualified starters in efficiency, with just 14.27 pitches per inning. He is tied with LHPs Cristopher Sanchez and Framber Valdez with a league-leading 17 quality starts and the 25-year-old has closed out the sixth inning in all 23 of his appearances.
The Metropolitans have been the third most effective offense against right-handed hurlers, with a 115 wRC+ which is essentially tied with the Dodgers and trailing only the Arizona, though the Diamondbacks are a much different roster, having dealt Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez and Randal Grichuk.
Superstar Juan Soto, switch-hitter Franciso Lindor and slugger Pete Alonso are a terrifying trio, with Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Brett Baty all strong in lefty-righty matchups. Plus bringing in lefty Cedric Mullins to replaced Tyrone Taylor has upgraded not only the defense, but also added another tough out at the bottom of the lineup card. This is a strength on strength matchup, with no obvious advantage to either side of the equation.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
In Kansas City, the mercury will be in the low-90s at first pitch, with humidity in the 50%-to-60% range and a stiff 10-to-12 mph breeze out to left field. Superstar Bobby Witt Jr. has a lofty salary across the DFS sites, with his cap hit ranking third amongst the projected players in Denver on DraftKings and Yahoo, rating out in fourth place on FanDuel. Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia and Sal Perez are also comparable to their Coors Field counterparts on DraftKings and Yahoo, which makes for some fun and interesting decision points.
RHP Sean Burke has been serviceable this season, showing promise of being a regular in the Chicago rotation for the rest of the decade. Of course he also is at a career-high with 114 innings thus far in 2025 and he has allowed elevated power to both sides of the plate, with around a .180 ISO for each. Adding in recent acquisition Mike Yastrzemski, if he is leading off as expected and the Royals provide a malleable full-stack, while also providing one-offs or duos and trios as a complementary synergistic strategy.
Early Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox
The top of the order for the Nats profiles well against RHP Taijuan Walker, with only James Wood and CJ Abrams eating into the salary cap. Literally anyone swinging a stick for Philadelphia is in play against RHP Cade Cavalli. This will be only the fourth appearance in The Show for Cavalli, who turned 27 on Thursday. Injuries, illness, rehabilitation and the pandemic all conspired to become a veritable steeple chase of obstacles over the last half decade. The 22nd overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft has not lived up to his $3 million signing bonus and it looks like his is going to be a flamethrowing middle-reliever at best. In the meantime, until his next malady, he is going to be in the Washington rotation.
Former Washington stars Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber are the trio to target against Cavalli, with lefty outfielders Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler to be used as discount dandies. Catcher J.T. Realmuto is definitely in play on DraftKings and Yahoo, where he can fulfill the pesky catcher requirement from the heart of the order and outfielder Nick Castellanos can be employed as a differentiation option.
Boston gets a nice matchup against RHP Cal Quantrill, who has been getting by on nothing but luck since the All-Star Break. In his five starts, he has somehow survived with a 3.33 ERA, despite a 4.80 FIP and 4.96 xFIP. In these 24.1 innings, he has only 13 strikeouts, though is nine extra-base hits, including four round-trippers indicate that regression is at hand.
If Connor Wong is behind the plate, he is the only BoSox bat that we should actively avoid. The priority wave consists of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreau, Alex Bregman and young Roman Anthony. Next up are cleanup hitter Trevor Story and steady Masataka Yoshida, with switch-hitter Abraham Toro and Ceddane Rafaela discount dandies at the bottom of the lineup card.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Michael Lorenzen to be under 4.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
The projected lineup for Chicago has a sedate 19.4% strikeout rate against right=handed hurlers this season, which is in line with Lorenzen’s 20.0% combined strikeout rate. The 33-year-old has seen a minor uptick from a below league average 18.2% strikeout rate last year, while his swinging strike rate has also ticked up from 9.1% to 10.4%, though that is still below standard expectations for a baseline starter.
Only youngster Colson Montgomery (29.3%, 92 plate appearances) and veteran Luis Robert Jr. (29.7%, 290 PAs) are striking out above league average this season and young Monty has been flashing power with a .397 wOBA and a .317 ISO in his limited action. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, when we look at Lorenzen’s game logs with seven, five, four, four, four, seven, two and two strikeouts in his last eight appearances. It is going to be hot and humid, with a nice 8-to-12 mph breeze out to left field in Kauffman Stadium this afternoon, which bodes well for offenses and especially lefties like Montgomery in the visitor’s lineup.
