MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 20
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
For those looking for “safety,” then the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner is your guy. Of course, we need to remember that safety is a relative term in the world of MLB DFS.
Last year, the 28-year-old had a stellar 10.69 strikeouts per nine innings, a 2.39 ERA, 2.72 xERA, 2.49 WHIP, 2.83 xFIP and 1.64 walks per nine. This season, he has 11.83 strikeouts and 1.00 walks per nine, a 2.67 ERA, 2.86 xERA, 2.12 FIP, and 2.20 xFIP in 54 innings across nine starts.
Nolan Arenado used to be one of the most feared bats against southpaws; however, he has struggled mightily this year with a .288 wOBA and .126 ISO. He has a 10.4% strikeout rate, but without his feared bat and eye at the plate working together, he has slipped down the batting order.
Youngsters Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera have promising careers ahead of them, but going against a reigning Cy Young Award winner is not something either has done with any frequency. Willson Contreras continues to be the anchor in the middle of the order, though this trio alone should not dissuade anyone from riding with Skubal.
The salary is tricky, so in tournaments expectations are that Skubal will be eschewed for big bats. However, in cash games (i.e., H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) expect the 28-year-old ace to be well represented. There is a 12 to 15 mph breeze out to right field, though that should not do too much to help Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan, who are already dealing with the lefty-lefty matchup.
Cease is tracking for double-digit strikeouts per nine innings for the fifth consecutive season, with his 11.11 the second highest rate of his career, trailing only his lofty 12.28 in the 2021 season. He does have a slightly higher walk rate than most gamers would like with 3.79 per nine for his career, though his ability to limit power with 1.06 home runs per nine is admirable.
Toronto does have below-average strikeouts against right-handed pitching up and down the lineup, but the Blue Jays’ power is concentrated in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., along with Dalton Varsho and switch-hitter Anthony Santander, who will both have the platoon advantage. In recent seasons, Cease has recorded quality starts in about half of his appearances, though he had only three in his nine outings this year. If he can limit walks and induce a little more weak contact, he has a chance to attain that bonus on the blue site tonight.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Athletics
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has the Athletics with the second-highest probability of leading the slate for fantasy points, behind the Philadelphia Phillies, who are in Colorado. On DraftKings, the A’s have about two-thirds of the tournament popularity afforded to the Phillies, with about half the popularity on FanDuel.
Though Sutter Health Park has been the lowest-scoring stadium in the Pacific Coast League over the last three seasons, big leaguer bats have not had any issues, despite the average size field dimensions. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 80s, which bodes well for the offenses.
Look to the power bats, which are many for the A’s, with the preferred order of preference considering price, projection and positional legibility being Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, Luis Urias and JJ Bleday.
The Halos look pretty good against RHP Gunnar Hoglund as well, as the third-best prospect in the A’s system is getting some on-the-job training. He is just inside the top 100 on most industry sheets, though he had only 56.2 innings at Triple-A over the last two years. Taylor Ward had a home run last night, and he is the most well-rounded Los Angeles hitter, while Nolan Schanuel was excellent as well with a home run and two doubles. Switch-hitter Yoan Moncada is finally clicking after dealing with injuries in each of the last two seasons, and leadoff man Zach Neto has shown promise. Catcher Logan O’Hoppe is a fine option to fill out the backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo, while newcomer Jorge Soler profiles well against Hoglund from a power perspective.
Main Slate Value Target: Tampa Bay Rays
Walter did make it to The Show in 2023, though a rotator cuff injury kept him out of the game for all of 2024. He has worked as a starter and reliever for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, reaching a 69-plus workload twice. It is going to be in the upper 80s at first pitch with 50% to 60% humidity and a 9 to 12 mph breeze out to right field. This game has a total approaching 10 runs, which should give each side a chance to post crooked numbers.
The Rays top plays will be the right-handed batsmen at the top of the order, with the focus on Yandy Diaz and Jose Caballero, followed Christopher Morel and Junior Caminero. That duo has been scuffling, so do not be afraid to put lefty Brandon Lowe and catcher Danny Jansen ahead.
Tampa is rolling out RHP Zack Littell, who has a “K” in his name but not in his game. Over the last 871 batters he faced, Littell had a 19.8% strikeout rate, though that has dropped to 14.9% this season, along with a .236 ISO, which is not going to do him any favors in George Steinbrenner Field.
Sadly, Yordan Alvarez is out, but Christian Walker, Jeremey Pena, Jose Altuve and former Tampa stalwart Isaac Paredes all look good in this matchup, and the quartet is likely to fill out the first four slots on the lineup card, giving them maximum synergy.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Nick Martinez under 4.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Strikeouts are not really part of Martinez’s pitching profile, and he projects for around 4.4 in this matchup. He could make some magic happen against the top of the Pirates lineup, but he will likely lose ground against the bottom of the order in the strikeout arena. In reverse chronological order, the soon-to-be 35-year-old recorded three, five, six, three, four, four, eight, two and five strikeouts in his nine starts.
