MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Catchers Logan O’Hoppe and Travis d’Arnaud are both on the 7-day concussion list, while Zach Neto was a late scratch with a sore wrist and Jo Adell has missed the last couple of games while dealing with vertigo. Then there are the absences of Jorge Soler and Nolan Schanuel, which further erodes the offensive depth. The available players have also struggled, including Mike Trout who hit is 399th career home run on Thursday, ending a 28 game homerless streak which was the longest of his career.
There are three switch-hitters in the lineup, though only Yoan Moncada is a credible threat, with utilityman Luis Rengifo on the team for his glove and low-end prospect Logan Davidson getting a cup of coffee as a Schanuel replacement.
The light-hitting first baseman was the 29th overall selection in the 2019 MLB Draft after spending three years at Clemson, though he never broke through with the Athletics, getting released in late-July after a nine-game cup of coffee. He was claimed by Houston two days later, then released on Sep. 1 after struggling at Triple-A. The Halos needed help, so they claimed him two days later and here we are today.
Aside from Rengifo (18.6% strikeout rate, 413 plate appearances), no other Angels have a strikeout rate below 24% against right-handed hurlers this season. That is a huge opportunity for RHP Bryan Woo, who has increased his strikeout rate to a career-high 25.7% this season.
Woo has been one of the most efficient pitchers all season, averaging 14.51 pitches per inning. That is behind only the 14.47 for LHP Tarik Skubal and 14.50 for LHP Cristopher Sanchez. The 25-year-old is second with 19 quality starts and he has closed out the sixth inning in 26 of 28 appearances.
In four of his last 11 games, RHP Dylan Cease has failed to close out the fifth inning. However this is more than offset by his 74 strikeouts in these 53.2 frames. The 29 walks are a little concerning, but he gets the most favorable matchup in the league tonight and San Diego has an absurd -375 line to bring home the victory.
Leadoff man Tyler Freeman (12.0%, 284 PAs) is the only hitter in the projected lineup with a strikeout rate below 23.5% this season against right-handed pitching and the bottom of the order has no power with Brenton Doyle, Kyle Karros and Blane Crim struggling in same-handed matchups.
There is no shortage frontline starters tonight, though each is in a far tougher matchup than Woo or Cease.
RHP Hunter Greene will be making his sixth appearance since missing 10-plus weeks with a groin strain. He has been solid with three three starts at the Great American SMALLpark and in Los Angeles against both the Angels and Dodgers.
During this stretch he has an impressive 40 strikeouts in 30.2 innings and while Sutter Health Park has elevated offenses all season, Greene’s 32.0% strikeout rate should serve him well. Particularly if Tyler Soderstrom (groin) is out again.
In San Francisco, RHP Logan Webb will be facing the Los Angeles Dodgers, though the groundball artist has been excellent this season, logging 20 quality starts. He has a 26.3% strikeout rate, which is his highest mark since entering the rotation five years ago and he continues to induce groundballs a a 54.6% clip. Most of the key Dodgers have had excellent personal success against Webb, including Freddie Freeman, Mookie Bets, Max Muncy and Shohei Ohtani.
Rookie RHP Jacob Misiorowski is having his workload monitored as Milwaukee wants to have him as a multi-inning reliever for the postseason. In a bit of a surprise, after announcing this plan, the Brewers have still allowed the 24-year-old to record 93, 73 and 108 pitches in his last three starts. There are strikeouts to be had from the Redbirds, though considering that the Brew Crew has a two game lead over Philadelphia for the best record in baseball, it would not be a shock to see another 70-to-75 pitch outing.
Finally there is RHP Joe Ryan at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The concern is that the Minnesota ace has allowed five or more runs in three of his last four outings. The opposition has posted a ridiculous .380 batting average on balls in play, with a comically low 59.1% left on base percentage. The 8.00 ERA is not supported by his 4.81 FIP or 3.54 xFIP, but it is still concerning.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
The Padres are also appealing, going against RHP Bradley Blalock, who has allowed 34 runs in his last five Coors Field starts, in just 22.1 innings. He has survived on the road, though the Diamondbacks did get to him for five runs at Chase Field in early-August. Blalock was sent back to Triple-A and in his 16.1 innings, he has allowed 17 runs, with seven walks and four home runs. He gets a bit of credit for 19 strikeouts in this stint, though that is small solace against a fully-loaded Padres offense.
Things are actually crowded with the addition of Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn from Baltimore, plus Jackson Merrill now healthy, after dealing with a myriad of injuries. Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth provide plenty of pop against right-handed hurlers. No Xander Bogaerts (foot) no problem, because there is the tremendous trio of Manny Machado, three-time batting champion Luis Arraez and of course Fernando Tatis Jr.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Cincinnati Reds
Severino was vocal all summer about wanting a trade, though that did not materialize. In 71 innings at Sutter Health Park, he has a 6.34 ERA, with a 4.24 FIP and 4.42 xFIP. To his credit he has allowed only eight round-trippers at home and six on the road. It is a lack of strikeouts that have made things tough for the 31-year-old, who has fallen off a cliff from 9.88 strikeouts per nine innings in 2022, to just 7.01 per nine this season. That works out to a 17.9% combined strikeout rate, well below his pedestrian 20.8 of the two preceding seasons.
It is going to be cooler tonight, with temperatures sliding into the mid-70s while Severino is on the mound, which is a 10 degree difference from most of the season. He has always done a decent job of limiting power and his 0.86 home runs per nine innings is a career-low.
Intentionally this writeup is not overly flattering for Cincinnati, since it looks like the team is going to be somewhat overrepresented in tournaments. Elly De La Cruz, Austin Hays, Gavin Lux, TJ Friedl and Noelvi Marte are the foundational plays when stacking the Reds, though this isn’t quite the WINDMILL SLAM DUNK that some may think it is at first blush.
The Seattle Mariners are an intriguing pivot, facing LHP Mitch Farris in his second big league start. Farris was a 14th round selection out of Wingate University, which is a small private college in North Carolina, with 3,500 students. That is far from a baseball hotbed and Farris did not show much promise, before being traded last winter by Atlanta for RHP Davis Daniel, who has languished in Triple-A.
Farris has a projected target of 2027 to join the Angels MLB roster, so this is just a chance to kick the tires. The 24-year-old has yet to pitch at the Triple-A level, have posted nondescript numbers each of the last two years in Double-A.
Last night, LHP Yusei Kikuchi and RHP Connor Brogdon gave the overworked Angels relief corps a chance to regroup, after seven relievers saw action in Thursday’s 12-inning affair. Anaheim has been recycling failed starters, has beens and below replacement level talent through the bullpen for months. The “best” pitchers are a pair of 38-year-olds in closer Kenley Jansen and Luis Garcia, who was acquired from Washington (not to be confused with Nationals middle infielder Luis Garcia Jr. or starting Houston pitcher Luis Garcia), along with Andrew Chafin for a pair of low-end prospects at the trade deadline.
Heck the Angels have turned to RHP Jose Urena as a long reliever, becoming the fifth club to take a chance on him after the Mets, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Twins all gave him big league innings. This allowed the 34-year-old to tie the MLB record for most franchise played for in a single season. Sadly, Urena is unlikely to see action tonight after having logged 71 pitches on Wednesday.
The Mariners are a nightmare for southpaws, with enough power to overcome pitching friendly T-Mobile Park against subpar pitchers. Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Eugenio Suarez and Julio Rodriguez are the core building blocks, with Jorge Polanco, Josh Naylor and Mitch Garver differentiation plays on the late-slate.
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Home runs are fickle, but it is crazy to not shop for the best odds as these can be a “sucker’s bet” when comparing the best and the worst lines available. Lile has been on a heater over his last 11 games, earning his way to the cleanup slot. in this stretch he has a double, five triples and two home runs in 47 plate appearances, working out to a .395/.447/.791 triple-slash line. Fellow rookie RHP Bubba Chandler is far from impervious against lefty power, making Lile an intriguing player to back, with the right number.
