MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Though his groundball rate has slipped to 46.5%, which is a four-year low, the 29-year-old is still well above average. He also has a 3.25 ERA, 3.15 xERA, 3.22 FIP and 3.73 xFIP, which are the best marks of the last four seasons. This is also accompanied by excellent 0.76 home runs and 2.19 walks per nine innings, also tops of the last four campaigns.
Three of his four worst starts have occurred in the last half dozen games, though the matchup against Washington is favorable for southpaws. The active roster for the Nationals has a 78 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, which is the third worst mark in the league.
Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes different variables, such as park factor, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This means the Nats are scoring 22% less efficiently than league average and at almost half the rate of the New York Yankees.
Six hitters in the projected Washington lineup have a 28% or higher strikeout rate against lefties, with only journeyman Paul DeJong, budding superstar James Wood and catcher Riley Adams being the only worrisome hitters. CJ Abrams is not an easy out, but his production has fallen dramatically in same-handed matchups as compared to last year.
In Milwaukee, LHP Robbie Ray and the San Francisco Giants are wrapping up their series with the Brewers, against RHP Brandon Woodruff. Both pitchers are talented, though the respective matchups are a little tricky and of course the win bonus is probably off the table. It appears that Woodruff is being pushed back, the win is a little more in play for Ray now, though not by much.
RHP Kevin Gausman is in Miami, which means a favorable matchup against the Marlins, though his results have been all over the place over the last half dozen games. It makes sense to wager on talent winning out, though this is far from a lock. One other wild card is RHP Taj Bradley, who is on track to start today and it sounds like he will be recalled from Triple-A to make his Minnesota debut. He gets to take on a pesky, though not particularly threatening White Sox offense.
He has been in the minors for the last three weeks, posting a seven-inning shutout for the Durham Bulls, before Tampa Bay sent him to the Twins. In his three starts for the St. Paul Saints, the 24-year-old has allowed a dozen runs in 14.1 innings, though he also has 18 strikeouts and just two walks. For those wondering, in his final MLB start for the Rays, Bradley suffered four earned runs in just 1.2 innings with no strikeouts and three walks, against the Chicago White Sox, because baseball.
Yamamoto and Pivetta each have to navigate tricky situations against the Padres and Dodgers bats, while Gilbert will be looking to shake off his last start, which saw him stumble in Philadelphia, suffering six earned runs and only one strikeout in two innings of action. The other thing to remember with Gilbert is that he has a semi-soft cap of 90 pitches, exceeding that workload only three times (95, 94 and 95 pitches) in his 12 starts since returning from a two-month layoff due to a forearm issue.
LHP Jacob Lopez has allowed only two runs in his last five starts, spanning 30 innings. Both were solo shots, in the fourth and fifth innings in Minnesota on Tuesday. The Mariners have a strong lineup against lefties, though T-Mobile Park is the most pitching-friendly venue in the league.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
Though four starts in August, Elder has a 6.29 ERA, giving up a whopping 18 runs in 24.1 innings, with only two home runs. Ready for the big reveal? Well that production has been much better than his 7.91 ERA in four July starts and well ahead of his dreadful June that saw the 26-year-old saddled with an 8.25 ERA. This will be the second time that Elder has faced the Mets in 10 days, posting one of his better outings of the year in New York on Aug. 14. Of course in context of his other results, that can probably be chalked up to luck.
All told in his 13 starts since the beginning of June, Elder has a 7.45 ERA, though he has been “unlucky” when looking at his 5.05 FIP and 4.38 xFIP. However, the final statistics to keep in mind for today are his 57 strikeouts against 58 runs (with two being unearned).
DraftKings has done a nice job with the salaries for Francisco Lindor ($5,700), Juan Soto ($5,900), Brandon Nimmo ($5,200) and Pete Alonso ($5,200), which means some sacrifices will need to be made. Of course Jeff McNeill ($3,100), Mark Vientos ($2,700), Brett Baty ($3,600) and Cedric Mullins ($3,800) are all discounted, so expect the Mets to be popular. When taking this path, differentiation at pitcher or secondary stacks will be crucial.
Baltimore is facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti and aside from Gunnar Henderson ($5,400), the key Orioles have cap friendly salaries. No one in the projected lineup for the White Sox costs more than $4,000, which keeps Chicago appealing as a discount stack against Bradley and aside from Byron Buxton ($5,900) and Luke Keaschall ($5,000), the Twins are affordable against RHP Yoendrys Gomez.
The top of the Philadelphia order has Kyle Schwarber ($6,100), Bryce Harper ($6,000) and Trea Turner ($6,100) with Coors Field pricing against their former team, making this trio somewhat contrarian. For those wondering about FanDuel, all you need to know is that Schwarber is the only hitter in the player pool with a salary higher than $4,000, making roster construction on the blue site a breeze.
Late Slate Primary Target: Chicago Cubs
Catcher Carson Kelly got the night off on Saturday, so he should be in the lineup this afternoon as the premier backstop on DraftKings and Yahoo. Kyle Tucker now has three home runs in his last two games, which perhaps indicates he may be healing up from his fractured ring finger on his right hand. From when the injury occurred on Jun. 1, though Thursday, the slugger had only six home runs and 17 total extra base hits in 269 plate appearances.
Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong all profile well against their former teammate, with switch-hitter Ian Happ in the mix, depending on where he lands on the lineup card.
Keep in mind this is a 1 o’clock local start time, with temperatures in the upper-80s, a 7-to-10 mph breeze to centerfield and no impact from the vaunted marine layer. RHP Jameson Taillon was serviceable in his return to action, posting a quality start after being shelved for nearly seven weeks with a strained calf. Now in his age-33 season, Taillon continues to be a better “real life” pitcher than a DFS asset and since the start of last year his 18.7% strikeout rate and power issues make him someone to attack in the right matchup.
For all of their foibles, the Halos lineup is teeming with power, which makes them a fun team to stack. Taylor Ward, Yoan Moncada, Zach Neto, Jo Addell and of course Mike Trout are all desirable options, with Nolan Schanuel and catcher Logan O’Hoppe secondary selections. The Cubs bullpen has had a lot of work over the last five days and while the team is not going to let Taillon spontaneously combust on the mound, if the offense is humming, manager Craig Counsell may not have a quick hook this afternoon.
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