MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 1
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Verlander’s velocity is above that of his 17 games last year, though the 42-year-old is still below 2023 and of course 2022, when he won his third Cy Young Award, after logging just six total innings in 2020 and 2021, due to injury.
The venerable veteran has led the league in starts and total strikeouts five times, innings four times, wins three times and losses once. He truly has had a career spanning three decades and 20-plus seasons.
We may see Verlander pop up in this article series a couple more times this season, though like today, it will be a function of the slate and most importantly, the matchup. Going forward it would be a surprise to see the elder statesman be positively recommended, outside of a Sunday after slate or a great late-slate scenario.
The Rockies just spent a week at altitude and it is well known that there is an adjustment period of at least 24 hours when leaving Colorado. We can see that with Verlander’s strikeout prop, which is sitting at 6.5, with a -125 line on the over at most operators. For perspective, Verlander has cleared that milestone once, with nine strikeouts on Apr. 9, against Cincinnati. In his 25 other innings, spanning five outings, he has 17 total strikeouts, with nine walks, ceding four home runs.
Colorado has a not so nice 69 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers this season, which is the lowest mark in the league and a full standard deviation below the Chicago White Sox, which is saying something. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ball park effects and other variables, creating a leaguewide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. That means the Rockies are producing 31% fewer runs, than the typical team would under similar circumstances. That is what we are actually targeting, rather than the arm of a generational Hall of Famer.
Because this is a small-slate, Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia can be sprinkled into lineups, which also feature Verlander. That duo, along with the struggling Ryan McMahon, are the best the Rockies have to offer against right-handed hurlers.
The one weakness in the Chicago offense is a propensity for strikeouts. Thursday’s projected lineup is pushing a 30% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season and change, which is nearly as high as the 31.8% strikeout rate accumulated by Skenes in the same timeframe. In a scant 43 at bat sample size, the current Cubs have struck out 18 (42%) of the time against Skenes.
Only once in his six starts has Skenes allowed more than two runs and he held the Dodgers scoreless in Los Angeles last Friday, with a season-high nine strikeouts in 6.1 innings, scattering five hits with no walks. The 22-year-old is the National League Cy Young Award frontrunner, while the Cubs are easily the favorites to take home the National League Central crown. Again, this is an immovable object against an irresistible force scenario, which should be fun to watch while trying to avoid work this afternoon.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
However, even with all of these alternatives, the Phillies still rise to the top of the charts, against RHP Brad Lord. There isn’t much good to say about Lord, other than he is one of the best pitchers on the planet. Of course, as an 18th round selection, he is far from one of the elite options in The Show. Case in point, Lord works at Home Depot in the offseason, since he knows his baseball career is on borrowed time.
It is a fun story, but aside from decent control and a mid-90s fastball, there are no redeeming qualities in the rest of the 25-year-old’s pitching profile. In his two seasons at South Florida, he allowed 6.46 runs per nine innings and nearly 1.5 baserunners per frame.
The game-time temperatures at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark are going to be in the upper-60s, though the elevated humidity and 7-to-12 mph breeze out to left field are favorable for hitters. Former Washington batsmen Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are one of the most feared power hitting duos in the league, plus Harper has already stolen six bases.
Bryson Stott struggled somewhat against opposite-handed hurlers last year, but he has been outstanding in the same situations from the leadoff slot this season. Another former National, Trea Turner has been slumping with his contact against same-handed hurlers, but he is still drawing walks like crazy.
For those branching out away from the core four, Max Kepler and catcher JT Realmuto fit the bill for differentiation. Speaking of differentiation, Washington does offer some against RHP Taijuan Walker, with lefties CJ Abrams, James Wood and Nathaniel Lowe.
Early Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Christian Yelich has been outstanding this season against right-handed hurlers, with the former MVP and two-time batting champion making life difficult for the opposition. Catcher William Contreras is developing into a tremendously talented hitter and young Jackson Chourio is flashing upside potential. Jake Bauers is a pinch-hit risk, though with Garrett Mitchell on the injured list, both he and Sal Frelick should see improved slots in the batting order, to make use of their platoon-advantage over Burke.
Leadoff-man Brice Turang has been aggressive, leading to three caught stealing efforts, compared to only six last year. He was tremendous with 50 stolen bases last year, building on his 26 as a rookie, so expect him to come up with a couple counter strategies to regain his advantage over pitchers trying to hold him on first base.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Garcia tends to slide down to the latter-portion of the lineup against right-handed hurlers, since his best attribute is getting on board when he has the platoon-advantage. The 25-year-old is also a tremendously talented base-stealer, though he has trouble getting hits against same-handed hurlers. Across his last 868 at bats against same-handed pitching, Garcia has just 214 hits (24.6%). He is not afraid to work the count for a walk, with 75 (8.6%) in this same timeframe. Kansas City just wants him to get on base, regardless of the methodology.
