MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The last eight starts for Ryan have been stellar, with the 29-year-old posting a 2.23 ERA, 2.59 FIP and 3.09 xFIP across 48.1 innings, with a hefty 56 strikeouts and only four home runs and 11 total extra-base hits. The first time All-Star is in the midst of a career-season and on the fringes of the American League Cy Young Award conversation.
Washington has been uneven on offense this season and since the Mid-Summer Classic, they have scored more than four runs twice, while also being blanked in each of the last two games. CJ Abrams has continued his solid play all season, though James Wood has been struggling in lefty-right matchups over the last month, with a 36.4% strikeout rate, a .260 wOBA and a .043 ISO. He is too talented to have this swoon last forever, though it is concerning that he has struck out the second most times in the league this season (127), trailing only Riley Green (136).
Veterans Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell have been a steady presence, though they are both on the wrong side of 30 and are not particularly terrifying, for a pitcher of Ryan’s caliber. The back of the lineup is inexperienced, with rookies Brady House and Daylen Lile still finding their footing, while Riley Adams and Jacob Young are pretty green as well.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Jose Quintana under 3.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates!
Most operators are offering the under 3.5 strikeouts in the +107 to +115 range, which has the +145 very appealing on NoVig. Quintana projects for 4.1 strikeouts tonight and he has been right around that mark in his last nine appearances with five, four, three, five, one, four, four, three and three strikeouts in 6.0, 6.0, 5.1, 5.2, 6.0, 4.1, 5.0, 5.1 and 5.0 innings.
Quintana does not offer much in the way of strikeout upside, with his 16.3% rate at a nadir for his last decade of work. He does a nice job with limiting power and suppressing runs and while his median fantasy point per dollar ratio is nice, there is not a lot of upside from a raw DFS score perspective.
In Houston, RHP Hunter Brown is looking to get back on track after three subpar starts. He will be facing an Athletics squad that put up 15 runs on Friday, with six home runs, including four by rookie Nick Kurtz, who was 6-for-6, with six runs scored and eight RBIs. Kurtz homered off four different pitchers, including position player Cooper Hummel in the ninth inning.
Brown is currently fourth in the American League Cy Young Award race, based on consensus odds, so he should be able to get back on track shortly and potentially even tonight against a very boom-bust offense, that has been propped up by playing home games in a minor league ballpark.
In Chicago, the White Sox are hosting the Cubs, though there is a high chance for precipitation during the game window. Rookie RHP Cade Horton has flashed upside and he gets a nice matchup against one of the worst offenses in the league. The Southsiders have scored 61 runs in the seven games since the All-Star Break, though that represents just over 15% of their entire production for the season and even with this offensive flurry, they are averaging just 3.78 runs per game.
Horton has more strikeout upside than Quintana and he would have been the featured player for this section, if not for the foreboding weather forecast.
Tread lightly with LHP Trevor Rogers, who has been getting by on smoke-and-mirrors this season. His salary is most appealing on DraftKings ($7,900) and he gets the best matchup in the league against the Colorado Rockies, though there are warning signs of a potential meltdown on the horizon. The pristine 1.72 ERA is being aided by a ridiculous 84.8% left on base percentage, along with a .200 batting average on balls in play. He projects for 11.7% tournament representation, though that could go higher depending on how the weather in the Midwest, and Baltimore for that matter, shakes out. If his popularity pushes 20%, savvy gamers should have a couple of Colorado stacks for direct leverage.
Lefty Cy Young hopefuls Garrett Crochet and Robbie Ray are in play, though going against the Dodgers and Mets is not a walk in the park. Finally there is RHP George Kirby against a very right-handed lineup in Anaheim, though his current form has been shaky at best.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles
Across his last 100.2 innings, the 30-year-old has an 11.3% strikeout rate, while allowing a .200 ISO. Yes, playing at Coors Field is no picnic, but his 6.41 ERA in this timeframe is actually better than his 7.01 xERA. On the road this season, Senzatela has a 6.43 ERA, allowing nine home runs in 42 frames, as compared to his 6.39 ERA at home, with seven home runs allowed in 56.1 innings.
Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday and Ramon Laureano are the trio to target as they have been locked in over the last 30 days. Ryan O’Hearn is on the short list, though he is also a potential trade candidate, so he may not be in the lineup. Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser can be used for full-stacks, while veteran Cedric Mullins is the leading discount dandy, depending on where he lands on the lineup card.
The ball was jumping off the bats last night, with the teams combining for seven home runs and 11 total extra-base hits. The weather conditions are similar tonight, which should have Camden Yards primed as a launching pad once again.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Houston Astros
The Astros will be running out a mostly right-handed lineup, which also offers up several discount dandies, depending on your DFS site of choice. Injuries to Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers have opened up opportunities for Cam Smith at the top of the order, with cheap reserves like Chas McCromick and Cooper Hummel getting BOGO pricing.
Switch-hitter Victor Caratini and Yanier Diaz provide two solid catchers to take care of the pesky backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo, while Jose Altuve is the foundational building block for all ‘Stros stacks.
